Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Path 3: They trade him but not until the deadline.

It is all well and fine to say trade him now, but if the required price isn't being met, do you do so anyways just to drop down the standings?

I think the most important asset the Flames have is their own 1st round pick. So would I take 'less' to maximize the Flames 1st? Yep. Absolutely.

I also think the market for Andersson is very well defined at this point. 1st + 2nd + maybe a 2nd or a mid-tier prospect. Maybe slight wiggle room if the Flames are willing to retain salary.

The priority is maximizing the Flames own 1st round pick in my eyes though. Trading Andersson in January or early Feb. Vs. March 7th? There's undoubtedly a draft position or two on the line in that situation, but even if they wait until the 7th - with how close things are? I still think that nets them a bottom-10 finish.

Healthiest thing for the big picture in Calgary would likely be for the Flames to go on a bit of a losing streak right now. With the Ducks, Kings (x2), Blackhawks, and Blues (x2) that may not be the easiest thing to accomplish though - but if they do go on a skid in those games, it'll be a pretty clear indicator that this team has no business hoping for the playoffs.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The defining act of the season will be the trading, or retaining of Rasmus Andersson.

Path 1: They keep him, lose their 1st round pick to Montreal.

Path 2: They trade him, draft in the top-10 (+ the haul for Andersson).

To me this is the ultimate short-sighted vs. future oriented action. Big decision for Conroy, and I really hope he trades him.

They could still easily retain the pick even with Andersson. All it requires is Wolf coming off his game a bit, or Huberdeau/Kadri to quit getting points (last two games: no points for them despite chances = two losses).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Path 3: They trade him but not until the deadline.

It is all well and fine to say trade him now, but if the required price isn't being met, do you do so anyways just to drop down the standings?

In most circumstances, the answer is no.

But this is a very unique situation, where optimizing their asset management very much includes how they finish the season.

Trading Andersson early, as opposed to waiting, might cost them a 2nd round pick (1st + prospect vs 1st + 2nd + prospect)

But if it means they finish bottom 10, it improves our 1st round pick this year from 24-32 to 8-10.

That improvement is much more significant than any change in return.

Would you trade Andersson right now for a late 1st + a medium prospect + the ability to move from 25th to 10th overall? I sure as hell would. Moving from 25 to 10 is worth what? 2 1st round picks?

[SuperMatt18]

The real indicator will probably be the 4 nations break where the Flames are off between Feb 9 - Feb 22 (Play the Kraken on the 8th and the Sharks on the 23rd)

I would expect we see more movement than usual during that time frame.

But between now and then the Flames have 17 games, including 8 of the next 10 on the road, before 6 of the last 7 of the break at home.

@ Ducks
@Kings
Kings
@Hawks
@ Blues
@Blues
@ Jets
Sabres
@Wild
@Jets
Capitals
Ducks
Red Wings
@Kraken
Maple Leafs
Avalanche
Kraken

They will have played 56 games at that point and would have a pretty good indication of which direction they are trending between wild card spot or leaning into a bottom 10 finish.

If the Flames were to make a major move that's probably when it's going to happen, and they would have 26 games left in the season after that break.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I'd rather get a top pick than 4 games of playoffs.

But, it looks like the Flames are trying to do the most Flames thing ever, and finish 9th or 10th in the west.

Man I wish we could put a halt on "the most Flames thing ever" comments. So over done.

They've assembled 23 player that work their assess off and have exceeded expectations despite having their roster gutted in the last calendar year and existing on a roster with more cap space than any other team in the league.

This is the most Flames thing ever?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Man I wish we could put a halt on "the most Flames thing ever" comments. So over done.

They've assembled 23 player that work their assess off and have exceeded expectations despite having their roster gutted in the last calendar year and existing on a roster with more cap space than any other team in the league.

This is the most Flames thing ever?

The end result is still the end result, and that's what the "most Flames thing ever" would be.

What was posted the other day? Since the early 2000s the Flames are the 17th best team or something along those lines? That's about where they project to be this year if things contiune at the current clip. Which really just means they've become more salary efficient while accomplishing the same thing - which just shows how easy it is to be 'mid' in this league.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I think the most important asset the Flames have is their own 1st round pick. So would I take 'less' to maximize the Flames 1st? Yep. Absolutely.

I also think the market for Andersson is very well defined at this point. 1st + 2nd + maybe a 2nd or a mid-tier prospect. Maybe slight wiggle room if the Flames are willing to retain salary.

The priority is maximizing the Flames own 1st round pick in my eyes though. Trading Andersson in January or early Feb. Vs. March 7th? There's undoubtedly a draft position or two on the line in that situation, but even if they wait until the 7th - with how close things are? I still think that nets them a bottom-10 finish.

Healthiest thing for the big picture in Calgary would likely be for the Flames to go on a bit of a losing streak right now. With the Ducks, Kings (x2), Blackhawks, and Blues (x2) that may not be the easiest thing to accomplish though - but if they do go on a skid in those games, it'll be a pretty clear indicator that this team has no business hoping for the playoffs.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In most circumstances, the answer is no.

But this is a very unique situation, where optimizing their asset management very much includes how they finish the season.

Trading Andersson early, as opposed to waiting, might cost them a 2nd round pick (1st + prospect vs 1st + 2nd + prospect)

But if it means they finish bottom 10, it improves our 1st round pick this year from 24-32 to 8-10.

That improvement is much more significant than any change in return.

Would you trade Andersson right now for a late 1st + a medium prospect + the ability to move from 25th to 10th overall? I sure as hell would. Moving from 25 to 10 is worth what? 2 1st round picks?

The problem is trading Andersson now doesn't' guarantee a top 10 pick.

It's possible they move him and keep playing .500 hockey...not you still aren't picking top 10 and you sold low on Andersson.

It gives you a better chance of finishing top 10, but isn't a guarantee. So I think you do need to maximize the return you can get for Andersson.

I still think they should have traded Andersson and shopped him more aggressively at the 2024 draft - since that when I think he would have had maximum value (especially with retention - Andersson for 2 full years at $2.28M should have returned a haul) and probably would have led to a bottom 10 finish being more certain.

I'm less certain now that a half season without Andersson gets you into the bottom 10 (the teams in the bottom 10 now will be selling too).

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In most circumstances, the answer is no.

But this is a very unique situation, where optimizing their asset management very much includes how they finish the season.

Trading Andersson early, as opposed to waiting, might cost them a 2nd round pick (1st + prospect vs 1st + 2nd + prospect)

But if it means they finish bottom 10, it improves our 1st round pick this year from 24-32 to 8-10.

That improvement is much more significant than any change in return.

Would you trade Andersson right now for a late 1st + a medium prospect + the ability to move from 25th to 10th overall? I sure as hell would. Moving from 25 to 10 is worth what? 2 1st round picks?

But the issue is none of that is certain.
So the risk is you trade Andersson now, at worse value, and still don't retain the pick.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I saw a bunch of videos of Patriot players yesterday being asked about screwing their draft position. They went into the game needing a loss to secure 1st and won and now pick 4th.

Every single player said they play to win they don't worry about draft position. Some fans took it far, they even got booed off the field for winning......

The Flames put together a pretty crappy team, and they are exceeding all expectations thanks to our goalie.

The most Flames thing ever would be to go out and trade assets for now players, and they haven't.

Outside of trading Andersson, not much Craig can do.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Man I wish we could put a halt on "the most Flames thing ever" comments. So over done.

They've assembled 23 player that work their assess off and have exceeded expectations despite having their roster gutted in the last calendar year and existing on a roster with more cap space than any other team in the league.

This is the most Flames thing ever?

Not making the playoffs but also not getting a top pick is terrible for us. Our goal is to win a cup, and we need some elite talent to do that.

The players are working hard, but most of the current roster are not in the Flames long term plans. It's great individually that Kadri, Huberdeau etc are playing well, but it isn't great for the Flames future.

I will say Wolf has been a nice surprise.

But ideally we would be tanking for a few years and getting some elite talent to help us down the road. Finishing right near the middle year after year just ensures we will never be a contender.

[dino7c]

The fact that their star goalie is a rookie and not a 35 year old makes a HUGE difference. Wolf being all world is more important than 5-10 spots in one draft.

IMO

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

But ideally we would be tanking for a few years and getting some elite talent to help us down the road. Finishing right near the middle year after year just ensures we will never be a contender.

And how, exactly, do you propose to tank any further? The team is close to the salary floor as it is. They can trade Andersson when someone gives them the price they want, and it looks like that's the plan already. Any more subtractions after that would put them below the floor.

This is a bad team that has been overachieving. Maybe you can convince 23 professional athletes whose own careers are on the line to dog it for a whole year, I dunno. But I kind of doubt it.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Not making the playoffs but also not getting a top pick is terrible for us. Our goal is to win a cup, and we need some elite talent to do that.

The players are working hard, but most of the current roster are not in the Flames long term plans. It's great individually that Kadri, Huberdeau etc are playing well, but it isn't great for the Flames future.

I will say Wolf has been a nice surprise.

But ideally we would be tanking for a few years and getting some elite talent to help us down the road. Finishing right near the middle year after year just ensures we will never be a contender.

They are trying to tank. Look at that roster and tell me different lol.

What is he supposed to do? Tell Huberdeau and Kadri to tone it down?

I get the frustration because we need our picks and need them to be high, but at this point it is what it is.

The focus should turn to moving out a piece like Andersson now.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

But the issue is none of that is certain.
So the risk is you trade Andersson now, at worse value, and still don't retain the pick.

Nothing is ever certain.

There is no certainty that waiting gets you a better return.

The point is that the largest prize available is the top 10 pick. So do what you need to do to get it, because the most likely scenario for the Andersson return is that it will be about the same, regardless.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Nothing is ever certain.

There is no certainty that waiting gets you a better return.

There is a certainty that refusing to wait gets you lowball offers.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The fact that their star goalie is a rookie and not a 35 year old makes a HUGE difference. Wolf being all world is more important than 5-10 spots in one draft.

IMO

why not both?

and it is potentially 15-20 spots in the draft

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And how, exactly, do you propose to tank any further? The team is close to the salary floor as it is. They can trade Andersson when someone gives them the price they want, and it looks like that's the plan already. Any more subtractions after that would put them below the floor.

This is a bad team that has been overachieving. Maybe you can convince 23 professional athletes whose own careers are on the line to dog it for a whole year, I dunno. But I kind of doubt it.

You can't really tell players not to try. It's not the players faults that they are playing hard.

It's just frustrating as a fan when you know what needs to happen to get elite talent, and it doesn't seem we will be getting any top picks.

I guess the only way forward is to try to get lucky and hit on some amazing picks like we did with Johnny Hockey.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

There is a certainty that refusing to wait gets you lowball offers.

No, that is not a certainty.

And no one is suggesting they pick up the phone this afternoon and take the first offer they get - you still put in the work and shop around.

Let's not forget that last year, they decided to move Lindholm early. And it turned out that Lindholm got a better return than anyone at the deadline.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The fact that their star goalie is a rookie and not a 35 year old makes a HUGE difference. Wolf being all world is more important than 5-10 spots in one draft.

IMO

Why not both, though? Wolf has been excellent, and the bottom-10 finish is within reach.

Having Wolf and no top tier centre? We've seen that play out before, but we also had a top-tier winger during that stretch...and we don't have one of those either.

The Flames have perpetually never been able to bring it all together. Conroy, I think, has that opportunity with his focus being on 2027. The most likely way we'll address our lack of top-end forwards in time for that 2027 season is through the top of the draft.

Nothing is a certainity though, we're just dealing in likelihoods. The most likely way to address these positions in time for that 2027 year remains the draft. Maximize your likelihood in the draft through giving yourself the best drafting opportunity possible, particularly if it means dealing from a position that you're actually beginning to look pretty good at (defence).

Think of Conroy getting to draft Roger McQueen at 8th or 9th overall + Brady Martin or Braeden Cootes in the 20s with the NJD pick + the return that we get from Andersson. Then things begin to really take shape:

McQueen
Cootes/Martin
Honzek
Coronato
Zary
Pelletier
Gridin
Basha
Suniev

Parekh
Mews
Poirier
Morin
Grushnikov

Wolf

+ our 2026 picks + the return from Andersson.

That's ignoring later picks that could be hits too (Misa, Kerins, our upcoming 2nd round picks). I feel like that's an exciting path to pursue.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Nothing is ever certain.

There is no certainty that waiting gets you a better return.

The point is that the largest prize available is the top 10 pick. So do what you need to do to get it, because the most likely scenario for the Andersson return is that it will be about the same, regardless.

That's the math
- To what degree does Conroy think that his price is being met now to trade Andersson, including given that they also have the option to trade him in the off-season
- To what degree does trading Andersson increase the probability of a top 10 pick


But I also think it's not in his make-up to make a trade explicitly to move down the standings. To me that's where you get into true tanking, which I don't think is what they are trying to do. Which of course you can disagree with.