Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Junglist

Parekh, Mews? Who cares about next year.

Makar replaces Andersson in 2027.

So you're saying the team that trades for Andersson is going to acquire Makar in 2027? Fascinating.

[Groot]

Players that could see some drop-off:
Kadri
Coleman
Backlund
*Andersson

Coleman and Backlund are historically 30-40 and 40-50 point players respectively. No reason to think they can't continue to hit the bottom half of that range which only represents a minor drop-off. Kadri is having a bit of a resurgence playing with Huberdeau. It's not unreasonable to see him as a 40-50 point player for a few seasons still, if not more. He could remain consistent or see some minor drop.

I included Andersson here as I expect him to be traded so his absence will be felt as well.

Players that should stay consistent:
Weegar
Huberdeau
Bahl
Lomberg

If anything I see Huberdeau having his continued resurgence, but even then if he's a consistent 60-point player it's around his output currently. Weegar should have several great years left but I don't know if he has another level to take his game. Bahl is interesting as he's looked fantastic and there's a chance he can improve still, I don't see him dropping off though. Lomberg will continue to do what he does.

Players that should see continued growth and improvemrnt:
Zary
Coronato
Pelletier
Pospisil
Wolf

I don't think anyone believes anyone of these players have hit their peaks yet. Sharangovich included as we've seen a higher level of performance than what he's delivered so far this season. Pospisil may not have much more to gain.

Not listed:
Hanley
Bean
Pachal
Duehr
Kuzmenko
Kirkland

Kuzmenko has done nothing this year, and the other 2 forwards and 3 defenseman are solid but easily replaceable via FA or internal promotion. If anything we could see improvements to where they are slotted with replacement players. Remember we have the best AHL team.

Ready to possibly make an NHL impact:
Kerins
Klapka
Cooley
Solovyov
Poirier

On the Cusp:
Stromgren
Honzek
Brzustewicz
Kuznetzsov

Then there's a wealth of prospects in the system beyond listed above.

Then add in $20+ million of cap space. With all that, how do people envision they will be somehow bottom 5 bad next year? If anything, I think this is the lowest you see the team and the improvements and promotions from young players see the team improve. I know the tank crowd hates that but I have trouble seeing how this roster broken down above is somehow a .375 win percentage team (roughly what it takes to be bottom 5).

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Ok answer me this.

How do you outline a 5 year plan that sees the team getting worse and turn around ask me why I think we will be worse next year ? The guys doing th heavy lifting are 30 plus. Zary and Coronato improve. Wolf is a wildcard not because of his skill but the position.

Who replaced Andersson ? Likely a much worse player. So how do you expect us to continue on this path ? I don’t see any young impact players coming in next season.

I don’t know if you don’t know the quote function but I went and found the post you are referring to. It was in reference to how long a rebuild that seeks top 5 picks would be imo because of how good the team is, and in particular that they have two pretty good centers for the next couple years. It was also an argument for trying to get a center through a trade. You are saying they will be bad next year. My projection had them drafting 11th next year. They are on pace to draft 16th this year so I guess I had them marginally worse.

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I think without trading for a center the flames will eventually get the elite talent they need. Below is a timeline I sort of see under the scenario that they do not get a top line center through a trade. I did not count the 2025 draft but I suppose they might find a center at one of their two first round spots this year (say 25th and 29th for arguments sake). But I think it is the 2028 draft where they can really start to get some of the elite top 5 talent they need.

25/26 should not be too bad of a year for the Flames, probably pick around 11 or so. Still enough talent up front to compete and decent goaltending.

26/27 should be a better year for the tank with the centers getting older. Some of the young wingers and dmen should offset that a bit and decent goaltending will help as well, I say they draft around 7th or 8th that year.

27/28 is where the rebuild should really start, decent wingers, defence and goaltending should not offset the lack of good centers. This year is a top 5 year in the draft I think.

28/29 should also be a good tank year for the rebuild. Maybe if we get a decent center prospect in the 2025 draft they can play in the NHL this year. I say top 5.

[traptor]

I dont see how huberdeau will stay consistent. Hes shooting at 25% this season.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

This. The patient approach worked well in the Markstrom deal.

Did it? A late 1st and b level prospect is likely what was always being offered or a package of similar value. Everyone was predicting Conroy was holding out for Mercer or the 2024 1st which was always a pipe dream. I have no issue with the return but the same thing is going to happen with Rasmus. Everyone is going to overinflate his value. Some assets are better than none though and cap space is better than another boat anchor retirement contract.

[Jiri Hrdina]

They didn’t get a b level prospect they got an everyday NHLer

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I don’t know if you don’t know the quote function but I went and found the post you are referring to. It was in reference to how long a rebuild that seeks top 5 picks would be imo because of how good the team is, and in particular that they have two pretty good centers for the next couple years. It was also an argument for trying to get a center through a trade. You are saying they will be bad next year. My projection had them drafting 11th next year. They are on pace to draft 16th this year so I guess I had them marginally worse.

So you project them to be worse. The last fluke playoff appearance this team had they went out and got Hamilton and had a star forward and ended up picking 6th overall.

Do you see them being much better? Any Hamilton/Giordano/Brodie on the backend ? A Gaudreau ?

Rebuilding teams don’t trade for a Pettersson. Vegas does when they are a piece away.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by traptor

I dont see how huberdeau will stay consistent. Hes shooting at 25% this season.

Pass-first players are always liable to have a higher than average shooting percentage. They don't take the low-percentage shots. Huberdeau is on a heater at the moment, but not to the extent that number implies.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Pass-first players are always liable to have a higher than average shooting percentage. They don't take the low-percentage shots. Huberdeau is on a heater at the moment, but not to the extent that number implies.

His career high was 16% in 55 games. He’s around a 12% shooter. If he normalizes he’s down 13% b

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

His career high was 16% in 55 games. He’s around a 12% shooter. If he normalizes he’s down 13% b

That's fair. Compare him to that, and not to league average. Trotting out the 25% figure all by itself is somewhat misleading.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's fair. Compare him to that, and not to league average. Trotting out the 25% figure all by itself is somewhat misleading.

I don’t see a huge drop off for him and he will alternate between assists and goals. In the end it’s the same #### the puck is in the net.

Bigger drop off is coming from 35 plus players like Kadri and Backlund.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's fair. Compare him to that, and not to league average. Trotting out the 25% figure all by itself is somewhat misleading.

What are you talking about. Whose comparing him to league average? What's misleading?

25% is a huge outlier.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

So you project them to be worse. The last fluke playoff appearance this team had they went out and got Hamilton and had a star forward and ended up picking 6th overall.

Do you see them being much better? Any Hamilton/Giordano/Brodie on the backend ? A Gaudreau ?

Rebuilding teams don’t trade for a Pettersson. Vegas does when they are a piece away.

He just turned 26. Young enough to build with

The question is he really the guy you can build with. I have serious doubt

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They didn’t get a b level prospect they got an everyday NHLer

A bottom pairing dman with one full season. Give that whatever definition you want. Point remains I don't think Conroy holding out ever significantly altered the return. Which is not a criticism of the player or the return. It is what it is

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Hackey

A bottom pairing dman with one full season. Give that whatever definition you want. Point remains I don't think Conroy holding out ever significantly altered the return. Which is not a criticism of the player or the return. It is what it is

Bahl is averaging almost 22 minutes a game. That's not a bottom pairing Dman

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Hackey

A bottom pairing dman with one full season. Give that whatever definition you want. Point remains I don't think Conroy holding out ever significantly altered the return. Which is not a criticism of the player or the return. It is what it is

We could have Holtz and his 11 points at 11 minutes a night vs 12 points for Bahl and 22 minutes.

[Junglist]

Read post wrong.

Go Flames Go!

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

We could have Holtz and his 11 points at 11 minutes a night vs 12 points for Bahl and 22 minutes.

Holtz sucks. He just happens to be playing on a much better team.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Bahl is averaging almost 22 minutes a game. That's not a bottom pairing Dman

Don’t mind Hackey. I doubt he watches the team at all to know that

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's fair. Compare him to that, and not to league average. Trotting out the 25% figure all by itself is somewhat misleading.

Huberdeau’s shooting percentage lifetime is in the range of league average.

This year, he is double that.

There is nothing misleading with 25% , and for that, there can be no debate.