2024/2025 Season trade rumours and speculation thread

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Junglist

and is a top pairing d-man.
Points are not everything.

Wasn’t trying to illustrate to that, was making the point that his trade value is in some danger of diminishing if his production stays the same.

[Junglist]

Originally Posted by Buff

We shouldn't be interested in him based on 3 games of World Jr. action where the entire team has yet to live up to expectations. Those 3 games are all that matters when evaluating talent. I'm glad you're here with your subtle reminders to keep us on the straight and narrow. Craig Conroy please read.

Nice cheapshot, he should be bringing this team to another level and he is not.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Junglist

So another Matthew Phillips?

Walton is pretty much the anti-Matthew Phillips.

[Junglist]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Walton is pretty much the anti-Matthew Phillips.

So he’s that means he’s too tall?

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Junglist

So he’s that means he’s too tall?

Well, he’s almost a foot taller than Phillips….

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Junglist

and is a top pairing d-man.
Points are not everything.

Andersson also leads the Flames in +/- with a +/- of minus 11 in the last 10 games. The Andersson and Bahl pairing has an xG% of 47.9%, and the highest xGA/60 of any pairings that played more than 50mins together this season.

Pairing xGA/60
Hanley-Pachal 1.72
Hanley-Weegar 1.73
Weegar-Miromanov 2.35
Bean-Pachal 2.35
Barrie-Pachal 2.45
Weegar-Andersson 2.63
Bahl-Andersson 2.67
Bahl- Miromanov 2.86

The Andersson pairing definitely gets to do some of the heavy lifting defensively, but they have been struggling to keep their heads above the water since the end of October. I'm not trying to take a dump on Andersson here, but IMO his trade value has dropped significantly after his hot start in October.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Andersson also leads the Flames in +/- with a +/- of minus 11 in the last 10 games. The Andersson and Bahl pairing has an xG% of 47.9%, and the highest xGA/60 of any pairings that played more than 50mins together this season.

Pairing xGA/60
Hanley-Pachal 1.72
Hanley-Weegar 1.73
Weegar-Miromanov 2.35
Bean-Pachal 2.35
Barrie-Pachal 2.45
Weegar-Andersson 2.63
Bahl-Andersson 2.67
Bahl- Miromanov 2.86

The Andersson pairing definitely gets to do some of the heavy lifting defensively, but they have been struggling to keep their heads above the water since the end of October. I'm not trying to take a dump on Andersson here, but IMO his trade value has dropped significantly after his hot start in October.

Wow, amazing stuff gvitaly!

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Andersson also leads the Flames in +/- with a +/- of minus 11 in the last 10 games. The Andersson and Bahl pairing has an xG% of 47.9%, and the highest xGA/60 of any pairings that played more than 50mins together this season.

Pairing xGA/60
Hanley-Pachal 1.72
Hanley-Weegar 1.73
Weegar-Miromanov 2.35
Bean-Pachal 2.35
Barrie-Pachal 2.45
Weegar-Andersson 2.63
Bahl-Andersson 2.67
Bahl- Miromanov 2.86

The Andersson pairing definitely gets to do some of the heavy lifting defensively, but they have been struggling to keep their heads above the water since the end of October. I'm not trying to take a dump on Andersson here, but IMO his trade value has dropped significantly after his hot start in October.

That’s a well put together analysis.

That said, and this is a general question not directed at you per se, but do people really think a players value can significantly rise or fall in such a short period of time? If I were a GM, I certainly would be looking at data over a much longer period of time than the two most recent months. I’d be a bit surprised if the offers for Andersson are going to be all that better/worse today than they were at the beginning of the season or they will be at the trade deadline.

Other teams have a book on Andersson and that likely includes upside projections as well as downside. Similarly they probably know where he fits in their salary structure now, and long term if they want to extend him.

[Nelson]

Jim Rutherford makes his moves early. The Canucks need a puck-moving defender, and the Flames and Canucks have a recent history of trades. The Canucks could easily afford the approximate value of a 1st and 2 2nds, as they have a 1st in the next 3 drafts and a 2nd in the next 2 drafts.

Rasmus Andersson for 2025 1st + Aatu Raty + 2027 3rd.

(In my opinion, Raty is worth more than a 2nd. He’s a centre. He’s a 2021 2nd, so he’s from Coronato’s draft, not too old. He put up good numbers in the AHL last year, and he’s looked impressive in the young stars’ games. So, I’ve put him in and put the second draft pick as a 3rd instead of a 2nd.)

And then if the Canucks want retention or for the Flames to take a contract, that would cost more.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Jim Rutherford makes his moves early. The Canucks need a puck-moving defender, and the Flames and Canucks have a recent history of trades. The Canucks could easily afford the approximate value of a 1st and 2 2nds, as they have a 1st in the next 3 drafts and a 2nd in the next 2 drafts.

Rasmus Andersson for 2025 1st + Aatu Raty + 2027 3rd.

(In my opinion, Raty is worth more than a 2nd. He’s a centre. He’s a 2021 2nd, so he’s from Coronato’s draft, not too old. He put up good numbers in the AHL last year, and he’s looked impressive in the young stars’ games. So, I’ve put him in and put the second draft pick as a 3rd instead of a 2nd.)

I would not trade Andersson to the Canucks for that.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

That’s a well put together analysis.

That said, and this is a general question not directed at you per se, but do people really think a players value can significantly rise or fall in such a short period of time? If I were a GM, I certainly would be looking at data over a much longer period of time than the two most recent months. I’d be a bit surprised if the offers for Andersson are going to be all that better/worse today than they were at the beginning of the season or they will be at the trade deadline.

Other teams have a book on Andersson and that likely includes upside projections as well as downside. Similarly they probably know where he fits in their salary structure now, and long term if they want to extend him.

I think his value will decrease the longer he is on the Flames because of his contract. I don’t think his value changes much unless he starts playing like 6 D

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Jim Rutherford makes his moves early. The Canucks need a puck-moving defender, and the Flames and Canucks have a recent history of trades. The Canucks could easily afford the approximate value of a 1st and 2 2nds, as they have a 1st in the next 3 drafts and a 2nd in the next 2 drafts.

Rasmus Andersson for 2025 1st + Aatu Raty + 2027 3rd.

(In my opinion, Raty is worth more than a 2nd. He’s a centre. He’s a 2021 2nd, so he’s from Coronato’s draft, not too old. He put up good numbers in the AHL last year, and he’s looked impressive in the young stars’ games. So, I’ve put him in and put the second draft pick as a 3rd instead of a 2nd.)

And then if the Canucks want retention or for the Flames to take a contract, that would cost more.

They’d have to really like Raty or think the Canucks will finish outside of the playoffs. Seems like something they could get at the deadline next year.

[Monahammer]

MOD EDIT: Removed insult

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think his value will decrease the longer he is on the Flames because of his contract. I don’t think his value changes much unless he starts playing like 6 D

I kinda doubt it.

Just to illustrate the point and pick up on some recent conversations, if the Jets went to the Flames today and said ‘we’ll give you Lambert and a 2nd today for Andersson’. I doubt they would come back at the deadline and say ‘that was then, today, we’ll give you Lambert and a 5th’.

Unless they’ve gone ahead and made other moves, their needs will still be the same. In fact, it’s entirely possible their want/need to improve may be greater at the point based on their play and how ‘close’ they perceive themselves. They may come back and say ‘we want Andersson. Will give you Lambert, a second, and another pick’.

I see it the other way around. The market for Andersson, short of injury or a sharpe decline in play, should increase as we approach the deadline. Particularly if he has a solid 4 nations.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I kinda doubt it.

I didn't mean his value is literally dropping by the day. Moreso his value will decrease if he is still on the team after this deadline, then will decrease further if he isn't traded in the offseason, and then his value will be lowest at the deadline next year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I didn't mean his value is literally dropping by the day. Moreso his value will decrease if he is still on the team after this deadline, then will decrease further if he isn't traded in the offseason, and then his value will be lowest at the deadline next year.

I agree. Once past the deadline, his value will decrease as a trade will only cover one playoff.

I also agree with a prior poster who indicated that his trade value does not go up and down like the stock market based on small sample sizes. My wording, but his point.

His recent downside in points doesn't matter that much, much like his early surge did not define him as a player. GM's know who he is and what they are getting. He's a reliable dman. Likely the best available and signed also for next year at a very reasonable amount.

Holding on to him over the deadline will decrease his trade value. But if Calgary is close to, or in, a playoff spot at that time, what is Conroy to do unless he's gets a too good to be true offer?

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I didn't mean his value is literally dropping by the day. Moreso his value will decrease if he is still on the team after this deadline, then will decrease further if he isn't traded in the offseason, and then his value will be lowest at the deadline next year.

Ah, okay.

I think you’re right, there are likely ledges. For instance, Andersson’s value should be higher now until the deadline than it would be afterwards. Particularly if the Flames are retaining.

That said, the market is perpetually changing. Andersson could still be dealt at the deadline next year likely for less, but perhaps not substantially less. Each and every team has their own unique pressure points.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by TOfan

That’s a well put together analysis.

That said, and this is a general question not directed at you per se, but do people really think a players value can significantly rise or fall in such a short period of time? If I were a GM, I certainly would be looking at data over a much longer period of time than the two most recent months. I’d be a bit surprised if the offers for Andersson are going to be all that better/worse today than they were at the beginning of the season or they will be at the trade deadline.

Other teams have a book on Andersson and that likely includes upside projections as well as downside. Similarly they probably know where he fits in their salary structure now, and long term if they want to extend him.

I think so, especially since Andersson looked like a star D for the first month of the season. He was leading all D in scoring, while getting the toughest matchups, and playing with a guy that was a 5/6D last year.

As far as the flactuating value of players, I don't know exactly what each GM is willing to trade for player X, but I can look at what players get signed to. COL just signed Blackwood to 5 x $5.25M after what, 4 games? Even if you add the 19 games this year with SJ, his entire body of work screams a good backup at half the cost.

[Toonage]

NM - wrong thread lol

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I think so, especially since Andersson looked like a star D for the first month of the season. He was leading all D in scoring, while getting the toughest matchups, and playing with a guy that was a 5/6D last year.

As far as the flactuating value of players, I don't know exactly what each GM is willing to trade for player X, but I can look at what players get signed to. COL just signed Blackwood to 5 x $5.25M after what, 4 games? Even if you add the 19 games this year with SJ, his entire body of work screams a good backup at half the cost.

But that’s just the thing. Blackwood ‘s signing (for example) likely had to do more with an indepth analysis of the player by the Avalanche’s hockey ops. They didn’t base that contract after 4 games, they based it off his career and, I’m sure, took cap projections, internal positional depth, player history including injuries (likelihood or repay and how it hampered previous performances) into account.

Also worth pointing out in this case Woodley and Granger, the two most forefront goaltending analysts I’m aware of, have raved about Blackwood saying out in the right situation and clear of injuries, his upside is significant. Believe it was Woodley who said top 5 in the league. If, and that’s a big if, they are right $5.25x5 could be highway robbery.

The Avalanche didn’t make that bet on 4 games or 20 games or whatever. They made it off the player, his potential, and his career to date and how they see him within their organization.