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Old 12-09-2024, 10:09 AM   #3601
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So much luck goes into it.

You need to be bad, but get some lottery luck, and then have the right year to be bad, and select the right player.

And then seemingly get lucky with later draft picks that become first round picks that you didn't expect when you drafted.

Not sure I'd sign up for 5 years of purposely sucking for that flow diagram.

Do your best at every part of the organization and let the chips fall where they may.

The Flames have 17M in cap space, and moved on from their starting goaltender. They're not fooling anyone with the "remain competitive" narrative.

But if young players progress faster than you think, and with that you do better than you thought ... just enjoy the damn ride and stop whining about wins!
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:10 AM   #3602
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What Tampa did was draft Hedman and Stamkos really high in 08/09, then muddle around in the "mushy middle" for a couple years (in which they managed to make a couple fantastic mid first and 2nd round picks), get a 3OA in 2013 which they blew on Drouin, go back to the middle of the draft and get Point in the 3rd round in 2014 (after taking guys like D'Angelo earlier) and the futz around for 5 more years until they won the cup. They keys to their cup win were, in order, Vasilevskiy, Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Stamkos, and the depth. The first three were not acquired with high picks.

I don't think they fit your pattern.
Completely dismissive of the fact that you note Stamkos and Hedman who were keys to building that team (I think Hedman is probably the most important piece there).

Tampa fits what I'm saying to a damn letter.

They drafted their foundational pieces at the top of the draft, and then went on to be excellent at drafting and trades. You think they win those cups without Hedman? I don't, but speculation aside - they had both Stamkos and Hedman.

You need to do both, draft at the top and draft/develop/trade excellently. If you do one without the other, you don't win.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:12 AM   #3603
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I don't even know if luck is the right word, because a team can only do so much to develop a player. I still think the most important part of a player's development is the player himself. He may look good in juniors but is unable to adapt to the pro game. Or he's just not interested in putting in the work. Or a million other things that an interview can't tell you.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:15 AM   #3604
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Completely dismissive of the fact that you note Stamkos and Hedman who were keys to building that team (I think Hedman is probably the most important piece there).

Tampa fits what I'm saying to a damn letter.

They drafted their foundational pieces at the top of the draft, and then went on to be excellent at drafting and trades. You think they win those cups without Hedman? I don't, but speculation aside - they had both Stamkos and Hedman.

You need to do both, draft at the top and draft/develop/trade excellently. If you do one without the other, you don't win.
1) Kucherov - he drives the bus there
2) Vasilevsky
3) Hedman (could switch 2 and 3, pretty close)
4) Point
5) Stamkos
6) insane depth
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:16 AM   #3605
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Originally Posted by Ped View Post
I don't even know if luck is the right word, because a team can only do so much to develop a player. I still think the most important part of a player's development is the player himself. He may look good in juniors but is unable to adapt to the pro game. Or he's just not interested in putting in the work. Or a million other things that an interview can't tell you.
In other words, there is a tremendous amount of luck involved in drafting, for all the reasons you noted, plus many others
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:17 AM   #3606
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Originally Posted by ComixZone View Post
Completely dismissive of the fact that you note Stamkos and Hedman who were keys to building that team (I think Hedman is probably the most important piece there).

Tampa fits what I'm saying to a damn letter.

They drafted their foundational pieces at the top of the draft, and then went on to be excellent at drafting and trades. You think they win those cups without Hedman? I don't, but speculation aside - they had both Stamkos and Hedman.

You need to do both, draft at the top and draft/develop/trade excellently. If you do one without the other, you don't win.
I do, actually.

If they had O’Reilly and Josi instead of Stamkos and Hedman I think they still probably win those cups.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:23 AM   #3607
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I do, actually.

If they had O’Reilly and Josi instead of Stamkos and Hedman I think they still probably win those cups.
If they had Dustin Boyd and Dustin Byfuglien, they would have won dustinfinity number of cups.

That's just baseless, useless speculation on your behalf.

So you think Pittsburgh would have won Cups if they had TJ Oshie rather than Sidney Crosby, because they drafted well in the depth rounds that so long as they got a good player, it wouldn't have materially impacted their results. Top players are irrelevant. Penguins would have won had they drafted Andrew Ladd rather than Evgeni Malkin.

Players don't actually matter, the key to victory is actually the unquantifiable "magic team work"? If that were the case, why did the Flames flounder with Sean Monahan while Colorado won with Nathan MacKinnon? Drafted same year, different spots. Both very good players, one clearly better than the other. I think Colorado drafted reasonably well outside of their top picks, as did the Flames - the Avs had the opportunity to draft MacKinnon, the Flames Monahan. World of difference.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:30 AM   #3608
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Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
So much luck goes into it.

You need to be bad, but get some lottery luck, and then have the right year to be bad, and select the right player.

And then seemingly get lucky with later draft picks that become first round picks that you didn't expect when you drafted.

Not sure I'd sign up for 5 years of purposely sucking for that flow diagram.

Do your best at every part of the organization and let the chips fall where they may.

The Flames have 17M in cap space, and moved on from their starting goaltender. They're not fooling anyone with the "remain competitive" narrative.

But if young players progress faster than you think, and with that you do better than you thought ... just enjoy the damn ride and stop whining about wins!
"enjoy the ride"

The same ride we've been on for 30+ years, finishing between 13th-18th league wide?
What the hell would be enjoyable about that, please. This type of talk gets us another 5 years of middling finishes while we bleet about some culture or something. WHAT CULTURE! WE HAVENT WON ANYTHING OF NOTE IN DECADES!
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:33 AM   #3609
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Originally Posted by ComixZone View Post
Completely dismissive of the fact that you note Stamkos and Hedman who were keys to building that team (I think Hedman is probably the most important piece there).

Tampa fits what I'm saying to a damn letter.

They drafted their foundational pieces at the top of the draft, and then went on to be excellent at drafting and trades. You think they win those cups without Hedman? I don't, but speculation aside - they had both Stamkos and Hedman.

You need to do both, draft at the top and draft/develop/trade excellently. If you do one without the other, you don't win.
Thing with Tampa is they never intentionally tanked.

They were a Stanley Cup winner that was squeezed coming out of the lockout by the salary cap and ended up sucking even though they had Richards, Boyle, Lecavalier, St.Louis, and Khavibulin on the roster.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:36 AM   #3610
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The Flames are starting to plummet down the standings. They start the year 5-0-1 then go 3-6-2 before going 4-0 and are now 1-4-2 since. They have fallen out of a playoff spot and they think unlikely to return to a firm spot for the remainder of the season.

Conroy has stated he doesn’t want to tank but look at the moves he made this summer. Traded a top 6 forward in Mangiapane for a pick and traded starting goalie Markstrom for a pick and player. He signs a 4th line energy guy in Lomberg and depth D in Bean to 2 year deals and then goes bargain bin shopping for Barrie, Martha and gives Sharangovich an extension. The team has 2 1sts for 25 and 2 2nds and has 2 1sts for 26. There is a ton of cap space and no real efforts were made to improve a team that finished with a top 10 pick last year.

If they worked hard to send out Weegar, Kadri, Backs, Coleman. Huby is unmovable and Andersson is rebuilding his value to be flipped at a later date. Conroy said last night on the broadcast that he wants to continue to add younger players to the team. He hasn’t traded a pick for a player yet so we should trust his plan as he has done a very nice job of navigating the mess Treliving left for him to clean up
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:40 AM   #3611
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Thing with Tampa is they never intentionally tanked.

They were a Stanley Cup winner that was squeezed coming out of the lockout by the salary cap and ended up sucking even though they had Richards, Boyle, Lecavalier, St.Louis, and Khavibulin on the roster.
Yeah the argument around intentional tanking is definitely one to be had.

Tampa won a Cup, chased for as long as they could and just fell apart.

Chicago's current rebuild? They chased the competitive wagon as long as they could (I mean, that Seth Jones tried...yikes), before ultimately just accepting they couldn't do it and had to pivot.

The Flames largely hit this point last season where after Johnny and Chucky bailed, and Treliving screwed the pooch trying to stay relevant, Conroy tried to keep things together until he realized that this was not going to be a good team, especially with the contract ask from players like Lindholm.

The very targeted 'lose on purpose' rebuilds are pretty rare. It's usually brought on be pure incompetence, and I'd say the Flames were managed so incompetently during Treliving's last year, that it forced them to their current path. Conroy has managed it well so far, there really hasn't been any short term focus since he took over (Sharangovich being the closest example - until you saw what that market actually held, and realized it was just Conroy salvaging the most he could out of an asset in a dead market).

My big hope right now is that Conroy just keeps going into the draft the way he did this past Summer with as many picks as possible, and make the picks. Follow that up with similar free agency tactics (1 year deal bargain shopping).

Conroy has been good. Just has to keep making picks, keep the focus on long term. I'd really like to see these 'trading for a 25 year old centre' rumours go away. Just use the picks, draft one.

Last edited by ComixZone; 12-09-2024 at 10:42 AM.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:43 AM   #3612
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"enjoy the ride"

The same ride we've been on for 30+ years, finishing between 13th-18th league wide?
What the hell would be enjoyable about that, please. This type of talk gets us another 5 years of middling finishes while we bleet about some culture or something. WHAT CULTURE! WE HAVENT WON ANYTHING OF NOTE IN DECADES!
I just find this so lazy.

There are more successful franchises for sure.

But they haven't been in the mushy middle for 30 years so why keep walking that out?

They had two 100+ seasons in 5 years before starting a rebuild.

Get current!
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:44 AM   #3613
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I think some are far too set in the idea that there is ‘a right way’

There is no pattern beyond some decent moves and a lot of luck.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:47 AM   #3614
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"enjoy the ride"

The same ride we've been on for 30+ years, finishing between 13th-18th league wide?
What the hell would be enjoyable about that, please. This type of talk gets us another 5 years of middling finishes while we bleet about some culture or something. WHAT CULTURE! WE HAVENT WON ANYTHING OF NOTE IN DECADES!

You get in histronics over their current season like they are forcing moves to try and be competitive when they haven't. Roster wise they should be competing for a bottom 5 pick but have played way above expectations. To me it is a team that is going to regress hard and freefall when the wheels fall off. Whether it is this season or next we will have to wait and see.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:47 AM   #3615
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We're really saying stamkos was not that important?

1110 games played, 562 goals and over a PPG.

Also massively downplaying the impact of Hedman.


Tampa was successfully because they hit big on their early picks AND because they hit big on same late picks
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:48 AM   #3616
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I think some are far too set in the idea that there is ‘a right way’

There is no pattern beyond some decent moves and a lot of luck.

I thought the right way was for sure getting a generational player like McDavid but Edmonton is sure testing that one. Got to love their crappy management.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:49 AM   #3617
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We're really saying stamkos was not that important?

1110 games played, 562 goals and over a PPG.

Also massively downplaying the impact of Hedman.


Tampa was successfully because they hit big on their early picks AND because they hit big on same late picks
and one without the other = no cups.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:52 AM   #3618
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We're really saying stamkos was not that important?

1110 games played, 562 goals and over a PPG.

Also massively downplaying the impact of Hedman.


Tampa was successfully because they hit big on their early picks AND because they hit big on same late picks
Count the years between their big picks and the cup, what happened in between, and then add who their 1C was when they won the cup. Plus no one said he wasn't important. Just not as important as 3-4 guys ahead of him

Last edited by GioforPM; 12-09-2024 at 10:59 AM.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:55 AM   #3619
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Count the years between their big picks and the cup, what happened in between, and then add who their 1C was when they won the cup.
Check how long it was between when MacKinnon was drafted and when Colorado won their cup?

If you think their friggin' Captain wasn't an important piece in getting that team to win a couple cups, I'm not quite sure what to say.
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Old 12-09-2024, 10:56 AM   #3620
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Count the years between their big picks and the cup, what happened in between, and then add who their 1C was when they won the cup.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

A 28 and 29 year old stamkos and hedman had nothing to do with them winning the cup?
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