By the Numbers: Early Evaluation of the 2024 Draft

[Calgary4LIfe]

Love the way this team drafts.



I wonder what the over/under is on players in the pipeline (who haven't made the NHL yet). 4.5? 5.5? Some will disappoint and bust, but some will also exceed expectations.



Having a deep pool at the start of a rebuild is the difference between success and failure. Had Edmonton not lucked themselves in getting a generational star in McDavid (even ignoring their INCREDIBLE luck in the lotteries overall), they would still be floundering away. They haven't drafted well for ages.


Chicago now and Chicago in their previous rebuild are also night and day. They were the 'gold standard' of a team that drafts well back then. Not so much now, are they?



Too early to say if Calgary is a gold standard or not, but they have definitely been one of the better drafting teams over the last 10+ seasons, especially when you factor-in where in the draft they have picked, and how many picks overall they have had.



They need to find 2-3 more 'blue chip' types over the next few drafts, plus more support pieces. This is a fantastic start to a rebuild. People should really be much more excited and positive about what Calgary is doing here.



Just keep it going and don't screw it up with impatience like Ottawa did! Don't burn it to the ground like Buffalo did either. Just keep going and allow the team to gradually bottom-out, and then allow the existing players to start pushing the team up the standings too. I think organizations that fight against the grain end up wandering the desert for too long, or have too short of windows in their rebuilds. This is exciting having this deep of a pool to start.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I still think it's a good draft but it's also a reminder that a rebuild takes several solid drafts as a lot of these kids won't make it.

A look at our roster and knowing not every prospect pans out should give people a good idea of how long this is going to take.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

A look at our roster and knowing not every prospect pans out should give people a good idea of how long this is going to take.

I'm pretty unapologetic in wanting this season's Flames to hit a major skid and finish bottom 5. The prospect base isn't nearly good enough right now to be wallowing in the 11-15 mud bog.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Basha is a Connor Zary level prospect.

His brain for the game is going to take him very far. He thinks at a higher level than most on the ice.

If he is as smart as Zary then he'll be a higher-level prospect due to his speed. While Zary has improved his skating, it could use some work to fully exploit his talent.

[HighLifeMan]

Parekh's numbers are actually encouraging considering he's shooting half of his career OHL average this year. He'd have 15 goals and 37 points in 22 games if the puck was going in at the same rate.

I am also not at all concerned about Gridin, although I do wish things played out differently in terms of where he ended up this year. Basha got all the love during the preseason but I personally thought Gridin outplayed him and showcased a better pro skillset. He's playing on a not so great team team with zero NHL prospects outside of himself and is leading the team in points despite the adjustment to a new league and coaching staff. He started slower in the USHL as well and then really ramped things up.

Basha's is a small sample size with an injury to boot.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Parekh's numbers are actually encouraging considering he's shooting half of his career OHL average this year. He'd have 15 goals and 37 points in 22 games if the puck was going in at the same rate.

I am also not at all concerned about Gridin, although I do wish things played out differently in terms of where he ended up this year. Basha got all the love during the preseason but I personally thought Gridin outplayed him and showcased a better pro skillset. He's playing on a not so great team team with zero NHL prospects outside of himself and is leading the team in points despite the adjustment to a new league and coaching staff. He started slower in the USHL as well and then really ramped things up.

Basha's is a small sample size with an injury to boot.

Med Hat was supposed to be a dream team this year with too much talent and not enough ice time for them. I think there is some strife due to that on the team which is possibly evidenced by their poor start.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Med Hat was supposed to be a dream team this year with too much talent and not enough ice time for them. I think there is some strife due to that on the team which is possibly evidenced by their poor start.

I made a note earlier in the season in the CHL Prospects thread that he wasn’t playing on the top line in Medicine Hat with McKenna.

[Bingo]

Updated PPG Deltas

PPG Delta
Parekh 94%
Gridin 84%
Basha 87%
Battaglia 145%
Mews 129%
Misa 109%

[Enoch Root]

what is PPG Delta?

[Sol]

delta = change

[Bingo]

Year over year change to points per game

[Wastedyouth]

Mews has 114 shots on net. Tied for 4th most in the OHL, not just among Dmen, but all players.

Bonkers. As many shots on net as Michael Misa. A forward.

Only 3 behind Sam Dickinson.

[Ba'alzamon]

Battaglia 145% lol. That's insane.

[Tbull8]

I just love seeing that Conroy seems to be trusting his scouts fully. Especially with those later rounds, just leave it to the guys that have been out to see these players numerous times. Draft for skill, you can find everything else later on

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Ba'alzamon

Battaglia 145% lol. That's insane.

Didn't someone here (Sandman possibly?) compare his season last year to Sennecke's where they both got off to a slow start stats-wise and then crushed it late in their draft year?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Didn't someone here (Sandman possibly?) compare his season last year to Sennecke's where they both got off to a slow start stats-wise and then crushed it late in their draft year?

Think I pulled that at some point.

Their second half progress was really similar. Only difference was Sennecke's play continued into a really strong post-season which got him more attention and Battaglia was done early.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sol

delta = change

lol - thanks for the tip

[#-3]

I think the regression is a pretty natural effect of the Flames seeming draft strategy. The narrative in the draft was "The Flames drafted the scoring leader from X".

I can't remember what they all were, but if you draft the highest scoring Dman in the O, and the High Scoring draft eligible forward from the Q, and the highest scoring USHL rookie.... But if that's your tact going into the draft, then at least a few of those guys are going to take a bit of a step back stats wise, doesn't mean they can maintain a long term upward trajectory or that other areas of their game aren't improving.

[1qqaaz]

Some people said the Flames adopted a high-risk and high-reward mindset in the past draft.

I agree that the Flames drafted for upside. Many of them had great point totals. But I don't necessarily think that these players are high risk.

Luke Misa had 81 points in 66 games in his draft year. He went in the 5th round. Carolina drafted Justin Poirier in the 5th round. He had 82 points in 68 games. This year, he has 38 points in 24 games.

Are these guys really any more risky than other players taken in the 5th round?
Montreal picked Mikus Vecvanags, a goalie with only 87.7% in the BCHL. St. Louis picked Will McIsaac, a guy with 6 points in 25 WHL games this year. Sure, he's big. I don't think that makes him a safe pick.
Mews and Misa weren't high risk picks. They were just straight up good picks. Even if they don't develop well, I will think they were good picks.