Are the Flames actually a playoff team?

[FlamesAddiction]

If the Flames maintain this pace and make the playoffs with home ice advantage in the first round, you would have to think that Huska would be an Adams candidate, and Conroy possibly for GM of the year.

[EN FUEGO]

I would argue that the Flames won the last 2 games, against 2 of the top teams in the NHL, despite getting out-goalied. Doesn't really line up with many of the sentiments from nay sayers. I think they're a team that plays hard, has fun, and has some budding elite talent in the mix. (Zary and Coronato) Huberdeau may not have glowing numbers, but he's looked much, much better (and happier) this year.

I put 100 bucks on CGY to win the cup before the season just because I thought they were better than the odds they were getting.....I don't have any illusions about collecting that 15K, but I do think they'll get to round 2 at least.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I do admire your commitment to the Huberdeau cause. Even in the game threads.

Personally, I don't think he is unlucky. If anything, his shooting percentage is unsustainable, 5 points above his career average. And he doesn't shoot anymore, the drop in his shots per game from Florida to Calgary is dramatic. In total his xGF/60 is much lower than even his previous seasons.

As a group, I really don't believe the forwards are underperforming. This is mainly what they are, not a bunch of offensive skill yet. Kadri is off the pace of his best seasons, but he has had plenty of seasons in the range of 40-60 points, he is at the low end of that now. He also turned 34 this year.

LOL, I included him as one name out of a bunch and sure enough, you focused on that one. Luck - last game he could easily have had two goals and an assist or two and came away with nothing. I say that's a tad unlucky.

I also think Zary/Pospisil/Sharangovich/Kadri/Kuzmenko are all off of what they can produce. And with some of them it's just been Luck - Zary has been all over the place and only just got rewarded a couple games ago.

Edit: With Huberdeau, as usual, it's not really his goals that are off - it's his assists. He's got more goals than assists which is obviously unusual, and stems this season from having guys who are also having off seasons - notably Sharky. Zary and he seem to have some chemistry though. Zary tries a lot of things that don't work out but when they do, Huberdeau will benefit as well.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If the Flames maintain this pace and make the playoffs with home ice advantage in the first round, you would have to think that Huska would be an Adams candidate, and Conroy possibly for GM of the year.

As I said in the Wolf thread...we shouldnt care about any of that. Just keep on keeping on and let come what may.

We all know the Adams is the 'Kiss of Death' although GM of the year wouldnt be so bad I guess?

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The Nylander stuff was always unfair in my view. The only reason those questions existed was because of his last name, and his father being a highly skilled but tremendously lazy player.

Willie was never that. He was always a guy that competed well. And he was a consistent producer since he entered the league, who then found another level

Here's the stats that stand out to me for Nylander an Zegras, and why I would consider buying low on Zegras:

Nylander:

Year GP G A P
2015-16 22 6 7 13
2016-17 81 22 39 61
2017-18 82 20 41 61
2018-19 54 7 20 27


Zegras:

Year GP G A P
2020-21 24 3 10 13
2021-22 75 23 38 61
2022-23 81 23 42 65
2023-24 31 6 9 15

[stemit14]

Putting aside the flames as a team… I’m looking at the standings as thy sit right now and what teams could pose the bigger threat to jump the flames out of a playoff spot. Of course it’s early so any of these teams could go on an unpredictable run of winning or losing… but based on where they are at and the quality of team they are, I think Anaheim, Utah, St. Louis, Nashville, San Jose and Chicago are not going to be playoff teams. On the other end… I think Winnipeg, Minnesota, Dallas, Colorado and Vegas should make the playoffs.

That leaves 3 playoff spots available for five teams (Calgary, LA, Edmonton, Vancouver and Seattle). Coincidentally, they are all pacific division teams so it works that any of the 2 pacific division spots or 1 wild card spot should work for any of these teams. Calgary leads this group in points right now. I think Vancouver is a better team than their current standing shows but only if Miller and Demko come back soon. If not, I think Vancouver is no better than their current standing rest of the teams in this group. On paper, I think Seattle is the weakest of these teams and the standings reflect that. If we take those assumptions as true, it comes down to Calgary, Edmonton and LA trying for 2 playoff spots.

The western conference playoff spots currently look like this:

Pacific:
1. Vegas - 21 GP; 28 P
2. Calgary - 21 GP; 27 P
3. LA - 21 GP; 25 P

Central:
1. Winnipeg - 21 GP; 34 P
2. Minnesota - 20 GP; 30 P
3. Dallas - 19 GP; 26 P

Wild Card:
1. Colorado - 21 GP; 24 P
2. Edmonton - 22 GP; 24 P
————————————
3. Vancouver - 19 GP; 23 P
4. Seattle - 21 GP; 21 P
5. Anaheim - 19 GP; 19 P
6. Utah - 21 GP; 19 P
7. St. Louis - 22 GP; 19 P
8. Nashville - 21 GP; 17 P
9. San Jose - 23 GP; 17 P
10. Chicago - 21 GP; 16 P

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I hope you're right.

It would be a fun ride.

But the margin is too tight with every game decided by one goal, leading the league in comeback wins, and doing it all with a young goaltender(s) having to be elite.

That's called doing it in style.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by FanSince'01

2001, my first year watching hockey and I distinctly remember that blazing start carried by the Iggy-Connie-McCammond line and Turek having a hot start before he turned back into a pumpkin.

The difference with that team though is they were truly a one line team with little to nothing else going for them. This team, so far at least, has the defensive structure and goaltending and gets contributions throughout the lineup. I’d bet that it’s far more likely for the success of this team to continue than it was for the 01 Flames.

Not saying that we will keep this up all season but IMO this team is better positioned to do so than some other teams that have had hot starts to the year and then faceplant shortly after.

Then there's the opposite scenario, the 1995-96 Flames which started the season 3-15-5. Three wins in their first 23 games.

That team somehow managed to get the 6 seed and were one point away from having home ice advantage in the first round.

That team lived and died on Gary Roberts who only joined for the second half of the season due to injury. He got hurt again before the playoffs and they got swept. And, of course, that season foreshadowed the 7 years of darkness/Young Guns era/whatever you want to call it.

[GioforPM]

There's only one year of risk on Zegras. The kicker is the acquisition price. I think Anaheim would want a first for a do-over.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by traptor

Here's the stats that stand out to me for Nylander an Zegras, and why I would consider buying low on Zegras:

Nylander:

Year GP G A P
2015-16 22 6 7 13
2016-17 81 22 39 61
2017-18 82 20 41 61
2018-19 54 7 20 27


Zegras:

Year GP G A P
2020-21 24 3 10 13
2021-22 75 23 38 61
2022-23 81 23 42 65
2023-24 31 6 9 15

To continue it on, the next year looks like this (I will pro-rate both for 82 games as 19/20 was cut off because of Covid.)

Nylander

Year GP G A PTS
19/20 68 31 28 59
Pro-rated 82 37 34 71

Zegras GP G A PTS
24/25 19 2 5 7
Pro-rated 82 9 21 30

[traptor]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

To continue it on, the next year looks like this (I will pro-rate both for 82 games as 19/20 was cut off because of Covid.)

Nylander

Year GP G A PTS
19/20 68 31 28 59
Pro-rated 82 37 34 71

Zegras GP G A PTS
24/25 19 2 5 7
Pro-rated 82 9 21 30

That's where the whole change of scenery and buy low thing comes in.

If we was on a 37g/71pt pace and was in a good situation with the Ducks, he wouldn't be available.

We're not getting young bonafide stars with no red flags. These players don't get traded.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Plett25

To sum up, the Flames line-up is:

A poor 1st line (Kadri line is more like a 2nd line)
A poor, but promising 2nd line (centred by Zary)
An excellent 3rd line
An excellent 4th line

A solid top 4 with 2 legit top pairing D-men
A solid if unspectacular D-corps

This almost seems the opposite of what a really good team wants.

[Shazam]

Just enjoy whatever happens. At least these players actually put some effort on the ice. It's not watching the damned Young Guns, seeing Derek Morris floating in the neutral zone all game with a frown on his face.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by stemit14

The western conference playoff spots currently look like this:

Pacific:
1. Vegas - 21 GP; 28 P
2. Calgary - 21 GP; 27 P
3. LA - 21 GP; 25 P

Central:
1. Winnipeg - 21 GP; 34 P
2. Minnesota - 20 GP; 30 P
3. Dallas - 19 GP; 26 P

Wild Card:
1. Colorado - 21 GP; 24 P
2. Edmonton - 22 GP; 24 P
————————————
3. Vancouver - 19 GP; 23 P
4. Seattle - 21 GP; 21 P
5. Anaheim - 19 GP; 19 P
6. Utah - 21 GP; 19 P
7. St. Louis - 22 GP; 19 P
8. Nashville - 21 GP; 17 P
9. San Jose - 23 GP; 17 P
10. Chicago - 21 GP; 16 P

Whatever we may think about the relative strength of various teams, please, for the love of God and all that is holy, when you're talking about the current standings at ANY point during the season, ALWAYS rank by points percentage.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Whatever we may think about the relative strength of various teams, please, for the love of God and all that is holy, when you're talking about the current standings at ANY point during the season, ALWAYS rank by points percentage.

And don't look at these.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...s-thanksgiving

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/nh...inspiring-team

https://moneypuck.com/power.htm

[Shazam]

How the hell are the Oilers not #1 on the POWER RANKINGS.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think that there are some obvious similarities between this team and the 2015 team. I have been saying that this Flames team can't expect to continue out-working opponents. However, the 2014 (halfway through the 2013-2014 season) right through into the playoffs of the 2014-2015 season did just that. They outworked opponents for a consistent 1.5 seasons, nigh-in, and night-out. Huska seems to have this team running through a wall just as Hartley did during that time, only his methods are much more sustainable long-term (as I doubt that Huska is employing the same methods that Hartley did). Can Huska keep pushing the right buttons? A losing streak hits everyone at some point - will the Flames battle through the next losing streak and return to winning these tight games?


Will Wolf - AND Vladar - continue to give this team above average goaltending? Flames didn't see that during Hartley's time, as Hiller and Ramo were essentially league average for the most part, IIRC. Ramo did go on that heater in the 2014-15 season after being recalled from the minors during the '3-headed goalie monster' start to the season where all 3 goalies failed (funny enough, with how Cooley was playing during preseason, having a 3-headed goalie monster could have been a story this year too - good on Conroy to hold fast to his plan). Ramo's heater almost propelled the Flames back into the playoff picture, until he got injured and was out the rest of the year, pushing the Flames down all the way to grabbing Tkachuk 6th overall.


Will history play itself out in a similar circumstance?



So far, the Flames are holding, and it is a really fun ride. We aren't watching the future 1st line centre (Monahan) on the team - there isn't one. We aren't watching a dipsy-doodle franchise-level player excite all of us out of our seats either. Giordano-Brodie coming out as being the league's best pairing? Well, Andersson-Bahl have been great, and Weegar - X (usually Miromanov) have been good as well, but neither have been the best pairing in the league, though in some ways, it is better now having two very good pairings than one elite one.


I guess we will see how sustainable they do. I remember lots of pundits claiming that they were not sustainable in 2013-14. They banged that drum a LOT in the 2014-15 season, and were flat-out wrong when the Flames made it to the playoffs. Then in 2014-15, they patted themselves on the back, ignoring the huge gaping hole in net. Don't get me wrong, that team was not good, but they were playing well within their strengths and worked hard.


I personally will doubt that they continue winning the way they have been. The bigger issue I have is long-term - I don't care how big of a piece to a team's culture is about hard-working is. I don't care that the identity of a team is all about not giving up and working harder than your opponents. In the playoffs, there is no such thing as one team consistently out-working the other. The more talented teams WILL bridge that gap, if not in the first round, than in the 2nd round. This team does need an injection of not just talent, but talent of the high-end type.


However, I am fine with this team continuing to find success, draft position be damned. Ironically enough, this year there is a Tkachuk in this draft - Martone. Next year there is a 'generational' player, and so is the year after that (tentatively projected anyway). I didn't have the Flames at the bottom of the standings for 3 straight years, so if I get to pick, I will pick to bomb in the standings in the years that are 'generational'. Calgary has never had one of those, no disrespect to Iginla and MacInnis. Going to be tough out-tanking the historic best tanking team in Pittsburgh, and I imagine that McDavid will be leaving now since the Oilers are such a sucky team of sucks as well, so the lotto-luck Oilers will be there too.


I, for one, am simply enjoying the ride. Win or lose, this is damn interesting. Huska is coming out as a great coach, Wolf is coming out as a great goalie, Backlund is proving his worth as a great captain, Costco story is great, etc, etc. Lots of entertainment value here, and it is always fun rooting for a underdog.



Just don't do this next year. McKenna would look fantastic in the Flaming C.

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This almost seems the opposite of what a really good team wants.

You are right, for the end product of a rebuild.

This is what the Flames are, not what Connie wants them to eventually be.

For step 1 of a rebuild, not a bad place to be

[NegativeSpace]

Edited for points percentage:

Originally Posted by stemit14

The western conference playoff spots currently look like this:

Pacific:
1. Vegas - 21 GP; 28 P 0.667%
2. Calgary - 21 GP; 27 P 0.643%
3. LA - 21 GP; 25 P 0.595%

Central:
1. Winnipeg - 21 GP; 34 P 0.810%
2. Minnesota - 20 GP; 30 P 0.750%
3. Dallas - 19 GP; 26 P 0.684%

Wild Card:
3. Vancouver - 19 GP; 23 P 0.605%
1. Colorado - 21 GP; 24 P 0.571%
————————————
2. Edmonton - 22 GP; 24 P 0.545%
4. Seattle - 21 GP; 21 P 0.500%
5. Anaheim - 19 GP; 19 P 0.500%
6. Utah - 21 GP; 19 P 0.452%
7. St. Louis - 22 GP; 19 P 0.432 %
8. Nashville - 21 GP; 17 P 0.405%
10. Chicago - 21 GP; 16 P 0.381%
9. San Jose - 23 GP; 17 P 0.370%

[NegativeSpace]

It's interesting looking at the quarters of the season. The team has built up a decent buffer. Unless I'm mistaken, if the team gets 23 points in each of the remaining three quarters of the season then they will be at 96 points. Anything above 23 points in this next quarter further reduces their probability of falling out of it.

GP Points Points %
21 27 0.643 - done
21 23 0.548
20 23 0.575
20 23 0.575
96 0.585