Are the Flames actually a playoff team?

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by BagoPucks

I think they are playing like a playoff team. Ultimately, that is what matters and we just have to keep the momentum going. We get too caught up in the pieces that need to be in place but in reality, everyone is an unproven commodity till they do it.

Yes, but they do have to have potential to do it. There is a top end talent need, but truly it has to be done with a long term mindset. Paying a premium to get Zegras isn't solving that long term franchise player problem.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Goriders

The Flames are a very young team. The players carrying the load right now are the young guys. The higher paid vet forwards have more or less disappeared after the last 5 games or so.

The young kids like Coronato, Zary, Wolf, Bahl, Pachal, Miromanov, Pospisil are only going to get better. They are already outplaying the top teams in the league. I don’t think it’s going to drop off. I think the Flames are going to steadily improve.

I can’t see them not making it taking that into account not to mention their goaltending.

No team riding a razor wire line between winning and losing can avoid a correction.

It's coming.

I give them full marks for doing what they've done. The good news is the young guys pushing through are making the difference, as you said.

But they won't sustain top 5 goaltending.

And the lack of offence will catch up with them.

But they may be in the playoff mix now because of a great first quarter, which not many of us saw coming.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Even those trades are dangerous. Hamilton was great and Hamonic was terrible.

I doubt that Conroy is trading 3 high draft picks for a middle dman.

The Hamilton trade was simply one of opportunity that presented itself suddenly. Trades like that don't come along often.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Yes, but they do have to have potential to do it. There is a top end talent need, but truly it has to be done with a long term mindset. Paying a premium to get Zegras isn't solving that long term franchise player problem.

The only trade they can make that could swing the franchise is by taking a gamble on a Cozens/Zegras type player and hoping they pop. Waiting for another Eichel type trade can't be the plan as they are so rare.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No team riding a razor wire line between winning and losing can avoid a correction.

It's coming.

I give them full marks for doing what they've done. The good news is the guys pushing through are making the difference, as you said.

But they won't sustain top 5 goaltending.

And the lack of offence will catch up with them.

But they may be in the playoff mix now because of a great first quarter, which not many of us saw coming.

You are likely right, but what an unexpected ride its been.. They even recovered from the early season 4 game losing streak which seem to kill the hot start.

The upcoming road trip may be telling.

let's take it one game at a time.

[The Yen Man]

I think it will ultimately come down to this second set of 20 games. First 20 games for a lot of teams can be a bit of a mirage, especially as the good teams get their legs and start playing to their potential. Flames have won, but it's by the thinnest of margins, so they could easily have had the win / loss record reversed.

I'm of the mind that Connie should ride this out, let the chips fall as they may, but do not trade significant futures for short term help. That will just screw up the team long term IMO.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I think it will ultimately come down to this second set of 20 games. First 20 games for a lot of teams can be a bit of a mirage, especially as the good teams get their legs and start playing to their potential. Flames have won, but it's by the thinnest of margins, so they could easily have had the win / loss record reversed.

I'm of the mind that Connie should ride this out, let the chips fall as they may, but do not trade significant futures for short term help. That will just screw up the team long term IMO.

Exactly.

And if the roll continues take homage in the fact that it's not all draft position. Skidding from say 9th to 18th is a down gap, but the development of Wolf, Zary, Coronato and Bahl will all be enhanced.

I sleep at night knowing it could have been a mess. Imagine sitting on some UFAs at last year's deadline because this surge happened to start last season instead of this?

[Plett25]

Flames fans have collective PTSD about top line centres as they've been so rare in Calgary since the Flames arrived.

But all teams are flawed, for instance a certain team made the playoffs and went to game 7 of the SCF with an elite centre, an elite 2nd line centre and everything else average to poor, but overperforming.

Elite goaltending and legit top pairing defensemen are just as hard to find as elite forwards and centres. The Oilers have wasted McDavid's career for a lack of goalies and D-men

Is Wolf overperforming? Or is this who he is? Even if he cools off in his rookie season, the Flames seem to have an average to above average goaltending tandem.

Rasmus and Weegar are both IMO legit top pairing defensemen. They're split up and have both meshed with a couple of 4/5's to make a solid if unspectacular top 4 and an overall solid D corps.

Through the first quarter of the season, the forwards, a nd specifically the veterans on lines 1-3 have been disappointing. If everyone older than 25 in the top 9 forward group start playing better (none of them need to have a career season, only career average seasons) the forward group will be fine.

To sum up, the Flames line-up is:

A poor 1st line (Kadri line is more like a 2nd line)
A poor, but promising 2nd line (centred by Zary)
An excellent 3rd line
An excellent 4th line

A solid top 4 with 2 legit top pairing D-men
A solid if unspectacular D-corps

Above average, potentially elite goaltending

That's the roster of an average team. A bubble team.

Hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard. Team culture and coaching bumps that roster into an above average team, ie. top 16 in the league.

A playoff team.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No team riding a razor wire line between winning and losing can avoid a correction.

It's coming.

I give them full marks for doing what they've done. The good news is the young guys pushing through are making the difference, as you said.

But they won't sustain top 5 goaltending.

And the lack of offence will catch up with them.

But they may be in the playoff mix now because of a great first quarter, which not many of us saw coming.

They do have room for internal growth on offence. Most of the vets are underperforming. Hopefully they can turn it around to compensate for backsliding on defence.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by edslunch

They do have room for internal growth on offence. Most of the vets are underperforming. Hopefully they can turn it around to compensate for backsliding on defence.

Offensively every single Flame except Andersson and maybe Coronato are underperforming, as far as results go, including kids like Pospisil, Zary, and newer guys like Kuz and Sharky. A couple, like Zary and Huberdeau, have been a little unlucky or they'd have much better numbers.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by edslunch

They do have room for internal growth on offence. Most of the vets are underperforming. Hopefully they can turn it around to compensate for backsliding on defence.

Plus we were without our top goal scorer from last year for 1/3 of the season and guys like Zary are fitting into new roles that they’ll only get more comfortable in.

Wolf is also quickly cementing himself as a top 5 goaltending talent in the league, and I’m not sure outside of hedging bets why anyone thinks there’s indication that’s going to change. He’s not just getting lucky out there.

[Bingo]

I hope you're right.

It would be a fun ride.

But the margin is too tight with every game decided by one goal, leading the league in comeback wins, and doing it all with a young goaltender(s) having to be elite.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Offensively every single Flame except Andersson and maybe Coronato are underperforming, as far as results go, including kids like Pospisil, Zary, and newer guys like Kuz and Sharky. A couple, like Zary and Huberdeau, have been a little unlucky or they'd have much better numbers.

I do admire your commitment to the Huberdeau cause. Even in the game threads.

Personally, I don't think he is unlucky. If anything, his shooting percentage is unsustainable, 5 points above his career average. And he doesn't shoot anymore, the drop in his shots per game from Florida to Calgary is dramatic. In total his xGF/60 is much lower than even his previous seasons.

As a group, I really don't believe the forwards are underperforming. This is mainly what they are, not a bunch of offensive skill yet. Kadri is off the pace of his best seasons, but he has had plenty of seasons in the range of 40-60 points, he is at the low end of that now. He also turned 34 this year.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No team riding a razor wire line between winning and losing can avoid a correction.

It's coming.

I give them full marks for doing what they've done. The good news is the young guys pushing through are making the difference, as you said.

But they won't sustain top 5 goaltending.

And the lack of offence will catch up with them.

But they may be in the playoff mix now because of a great first quarter, which not many of us saw coming.

I don't know if agree with all of this. Trust me, I'm not going to get into an advanced stats argument with you as that is the proverbial bringing a knife to a gun fight. Here's the last 5 games win-o-meter results;

Min 44.5% CGY 55.5%
NYR 28.5% CGY 71.5%
NYI 23% CGY 77%
NSH 50.5% CGY 49.5%
VAN 73.7% CGY 26.3%

Buried by Vancouver, gutted it out against Nashville which were the last two games of a tough run. Then, got some rest and practice time and showed pretty well in the next three - definitely not razor thin at any rate.

And, I just can't buy into the thought that the goaltending isn't sustainable. I've held onto the "let's see" if Wolf can do in the NHL what he did in every other league for a long time. Now, I've let go of that train of thought. He's the real deal. Vladar is good. Wolf is exceptional.

Lack of offense is worrisome for sure. Can't debate that.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I don't know if agree with all of this. Trust me, I'm not going to get into an advanced stats argument with you as that is the proverbial bringing a knife to a gun fight. Here's the last 5 games win-o-meter results;

Min 44.5% CGY 55.5%
NYR 28.5% CGY 71.5%
NYI 23% CGY 77%
NSH 50.5% CGY 49.5%
VAN 73.7% CGY 26.3%

Buried by Vancouver, gutted it out against Nashville which were the last two games of a tough run. Then, got some rest and practice time and showed pretty well in the next three - definitely not razor thin at any rate.

And, I just can't buy into the thought that the goaltending isn't sustainable. I've held onto the "let's see" if Wolf can do in the NHL what he did in every other league for a long time. Now, I've let go of that train of thought. He's the real deal. Vladar is good. Wolf is exceptional.

Lack of offense is worrisome for sure. Can't debate that.

If the goaltending drops to top 15 instead of top 5 they would be losing games. It doesn’t need to be a complete collapse

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Bonded

If the goaltending drops to top 15 instead of top 5 they would be losing games. It doesn’t need to be a complete collapse

Totally, but lately (last 3 games), it's the offense keeping the games razor thin on the scoreboard. Goaltending has been amazing, but I feel the chance of players improving offensively is better than the chance of goaltending dropping significantly. That's just my opinion.

[traptor]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Yes, but they do have to have potential to do it. There is a top end talent need, but truly it has to be done with a long term mindset. Paying a premium to get Zegras isn't solving that long term franchise player problem.

Hmm I disagree.

Would you consider William Nylander a long term franchise type player?

Zegras reminds me alot of Nylander in terms of early career, playstyle and narrative surrounding him.

I'm not saying Zegras will ever reach Nylanders level, but I think the potential is there still.


No one is trading a bonafide franchise player.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

I don't know if agree with all of this. Trust me, I'm not going to get into an advanced stats argument with you as that is the proverbial bringing a knife to a gun fight. Here's the last 5 games win-o-meter results;

Min 44.5% CGY 55.5%
NYR 28.5% CGY 71.5%
NYI 23% CGY 77%
NSH 50.5% CGY 49.5%
VAN 73.7% CGY 26.3%

Buried by Vancouver, gutted it out against Nashville which were the last two games of a tough run. Then, got some rest and practice time and showed pretty well in the next three - definitely not razor thin at any rate.

And, I just can't buy into the thought that the goaltending isn't sustainable. I've held onto the "let's see" if Wolf can do in the NHL what he did in every other league for a long time. Now, I've let go of that train of thought. He's the real deal. Vladar is good. Wolf is exceptional.

Lack of offense is worrisome for sure. Can't debate that.

Absolutely.

They've played very well on this homestand, for sure.

If this was reversed (and I think people that have been here for years have seen this) I'd be banging the drum on the idea that they should rebound because their numbers suggest they're playing better than they are.

This could just be one of those seasons ... every year there are two or three teams that are great when they shouldn't be, and horrible when their numbers suggest they should be good.

Calgary works hard. They are full marks for grinding it out, and for limiting the high danger stuff against.

But their offence is thin, and they're somewhat relying on young goaltenders to be elite.

When the work ethic gets matched by opponents they COULD be in trouble.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by traptor

Hmm I disagree.

Would you consider William Nylander a long term franchise type player?

Zegras reminds me alot of Nylander in terms of early career, playstyle and narrative surrounding him.

I'm not saying Zegras will ever reach Nylanders level, but I think the potential is there still.


No one is trading a bonafide franchise player.

The Nylander stuff was always unfair in my view. The only reason those questions existed was because of his last name, and his father being a highly skilled but tremendously lazy player.

Willie was never that. He was always a guy that competed well. And he was a consistent producer since he entered the league, who then found another level

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Never tell me the margins.