Are the Flames actually a playoff team?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

This is a team with mediocre underlying numbers being buoyed by good goaltending and little hope of doing their damage on the PP to make up for what they lack at even strength... if they do make the playoffs it will be as one of those teams that outperforms their actual quality over the course of a season, which happens in this league.

Just sort by xGF% and you'll have a pretty good idea of where teams stack up. Interestingly, Vegas isn't playing great either.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Goal differential is the single best indicator of a team’s quality. The Flames’ GD is quite poor relative to their position, so they’re not a legit playoff team IMO. The good news is that is entirely based on GF, which seems like something that can improve.

Few teams in the west have strong GDs.

So in this western conference their chances are pretty good. They won't have to be world beaters.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is a team with mediocre underlying numbers being buoyed by good goaltending and little hope of doing their damage on the PP to make up for what they lack at even strength... if they do make the playoffs it will be as one of those teams that outperforms their actual quality over the course of a season, which happens in this league.

Just sort by xGF% and you'll have a pretty good idea of where teams stack up. Interestingly, Vegas isn't playing great either.

Four of the top 10 teams according to that stat are

Edmonton - 3rd best team in the NHL
Ottawa - 8th best team in the NHL
Utah - 9th best team in the NHL
Columbus - 10th best team in the NHL

I am guessing it may not be the best stat to judge which teams are the best in the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets are as ####ty as the Flames according to that metric. The Flames were a better team than the Rangers last year according to that metric.

[stemit14]

Can anyone think of the last time a team this close to the cap floor made the playoffs? The flames are currently only $4 million over the cap floor. I’m sure it’s happened but it’s probably pretty rare.

[Bonded]

The highest scorers on the team are Andersson and Weegar. That doesn’t scream playoff team.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Can anyone think of the last time a team this close to the cap floor made the playoffs? The flames are currently only $4 million over the cap floor. I’m sure it’s happened but it’s probably pretty rare.

Especially with a $10m cap dump...

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is a team with mediocre underlying numbers being buoyed by good goaltending and little hope of doing their damage on the PP to make up for what they lack at even strength... if they do make the playoffs it will be as one of those teams that outperforms their actual quality over the course of a season, which happens in this league.

Just sort by xGF% and you'll have a pretty good idea of where teams stack up. Interestingly, Vegas isn't playing great either.

A couple years ago, a flames team with fantastic underlying numbers and weak goaltending missed the playoffs as one of those teams that underperformed their quality over the course of a season. So it happens and it goes both ways.

The other possibility for making the playoffs is that the flames grow into their record if the young guys continue to grow and the vets begin to play bigger roles. They were 75% deserve to win against rangers and 55% deserve to win against Minnesota. Add in great goaltending as a factor to games you already deserve to win and you're going to win a lot of games.

[Flame On]

I have friends that think if they don't draft top five, and get a star, the team will be a bit screwed. But couldn't we see the emergence of Wolf as that elite star? Early days for that still I know but still.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Especially with a $10m cap dump...

On the other hand, the Wild are in a pretty good position despite having almost $15 million in dead cap. It can be done

(Huberdeau is probably overpaid by about $5 million. The Wild are overpaying Suter and Parise by exactly $7,371,795 each, yet are sitting 2nd in their division.)

[stemit14]

Took a quick look at the last decade of playoff teams and salary caps. No team has made the playoffs in the last 10 years while being $18 million below the cap. It likely goes back further than that but I only looked back to the 2014-2015 season.

However, I think a better way to look at it is to look at how team salaries match up relative to each other during each season. I found only two teams over the past 10 years have made the playoffs while having amongst the lowest total salaries in the league. Carolina made the playoffs in 2019 with $16 million in cap space (2nd lowest total salary in the league). Ottawa made the playoffs in 2015 with $12 million in cap space (2nd lowest total salary in the league).

This list may increase going back further but it would be a pretty rare occurrence for the flames to pull this off. The flames have the 3rd lowest total salary in the league right now. Keep it going boys!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Four of the top 10 teams according to that stat are

Edmonton - 3rd best team in the NHL
Ottawa - 8th best team in the NHL
Utah - 9th best team in the NHL
Columbus - 10th best team in the NHL

I am guessing it may not be the best stat to judge which teams are the best in the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets are as ####ty as the Flames according to that metric. The Flames were a better team than the Rangers last year according to that metric.

The problem with that metric is that every game is still generally a toss up in the NHL. .

The best team is 57.0% (+0.78 XG per game) by xGF, the worst team is 42.3% (-0.94 XG per game) so slightly more than 50/50 odds and NHL xG difference is generally within 1 goal difference in most games.

Goaltending and finishing luck can easily make up any expected goal difference over the course of the season.

And really the Flames aren't that bad when looking at xG anyways - in all situations they sit at 51.0% which ranks 14th in the NHL, by points percentage they sit 10th right now. Pretty close to where their xG ranking is.

[flylock shox]

These Flames are on pace to outscore the 2004 team by over 10%. Basically they're an offensive juggernaut, if they can just tighten their defence up they're a shoe-in for the playoffs and a run to the finals,

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

These Flames are on pace to outscore the 2004 team by over 10%. Basically they're an offensive juggernaut, if they can just tighten their defence up they're a shoe-in for the playoffs and a run to the finals,

Wouldn't say that. Scoring in the league as a whole is up more than 10% since 2004.

[Geeoff]

Seems like we will be giving Montreal our pick but at least it won't be top 10.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Wouldn't say that. Scoring in the league as a whole is up more than 10% since 2004.

Perhaps, but this explains the increase in their GA as compared with the 2004 team too: other teams can be expected to score 10% more.

In sum, they may just be one Jarome Iginla away from the cup here.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Perhaps, but this explains the increase in their GA as compared with the 2004 team too: other teams can be expected to score 10% more.

In sum, they may just be one Jarome Iginla away from the cup here.

You literally just said they were an offensive juggernaut who needed to tighten up defensively. Pick a lane.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The problem with that metric is that every game is still generally a toss up in the NHL. .

The best team is 57.0% (+0.78 XG per game) by xGF, the worst team is 42.3% (-0.94 XG per game) so slightly more than 50/50 odds and NHL xG difference is generally within 1 goal difference in most games.

Goaltending and finishing luck can easily make up any expected goal difference over the course of the season.

And really the Flames aren't that bad when looking at xG anyways - in all situations they sit at 51.0% which ranks 14th in the NHL, by points percentage they sit 10th right now. Pretty close to where their xG ranking is.

Yes. The more I read about xGF the less I think it’s a significant measure of success. It is useful for noticing longer term trends but it has some limitations of usefulness.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

You literally just said they were an offensive juggernaut who needed to tighten up defensively. Pick a lane.

There is really just one lane. Both they and their opponents are scoring more. Therefore they either are an Iginla away from victory, or a Kiprusoff away from victory. Either way, victory is there for the taking.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

There is really just one lane. Both they and their opponents are scoring more. Therefore they either are an Iginla away from victory, or a Kiprusoff away from victory. Either way, victory is there for the taking.

Wolf has been playing like Kiprusoff, so that isn't what they're missing. They're not just going to pick up an Iginla at Dollarama, or even at Costco (with all due respect to Kirkland).

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Wolf has been playing like Kiprusoff, so that isn't what they're missing. They're not just going to pick up an Iginla at Dollarama, or even at Costco (with all due respect to Kirkland).

Perhaps not, but they have far more offensive talent than the 04 team did, Iginla notwithstanding. Really, there's no reason they couldn't duplicate that run.