American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

As predicted, the news is just full of Trump slop and I'm already sick of it.

No one is really asking the tough questions though. What is Congress going to do about Ukraine? What is Trump's actual stance on it?

Will the tariffs affect Canada, or are we exempt because of USMCA/NAFTA.

USMCA expires in 2026, ordinarily it would be a fairly ordinary tweak and re-sign but clearly this time it won't, so yes Canada is in for an extremely bumpy ride, usual advice is in effect, don't make long term financial commitments like buying a new car, starting a business or the like unless you have to, batten down the hatches, pay off outstanding debt etc

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Ok great - so you agree that by 2019, much of Trump's monetary policy should have started to take effect. So does mean you agree that 2019 being the highest YoY growth rate in real median household income over the last 40 years is at least partially due to Trump's economic policies?

Yeah, not so fast there sparky. Take a closer look at that graph you sourced.
Trump's policies were not felt until late 2019 as the policy was finally implemented fully in early 2019. See the dip beginning? The pandemic exacerbated the speed at which those market forces were felt, but they hit the market and consumer hard.

Because if you agree with that, you might be able to make the jump that a lot of people were happy with Trump's economy and saw the effects of that in their purchasing power, and therefore it's not just "dumb American idiots" that voted for him. And that Trump's economic policies might not be as bad as being painted here by the hyperbolic catastrophizers.

People being happy does not equate to understanding what was happening to them. I'm sure people on the Titanic were pretty happy until someone wondered, "what was that bang?" and noticed the water coming in on the lower decks. That's the tough part of complex systems. Without understanding the machinations of what is put in play it is easy to become complacent and be happy while things sink around you.

Trumps policies certainly are catastrophic to much of the nation. For a party that likes to cry about wealth transfers, Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 did nothing but give billionaires free money and pass that cost onto the tax payers, most of which received very little in comparison. So not only did they get crumbs from the meal, they got left paying the tab, a bill that will take generations to paydown. But focus on happiness factor, until they see the bill and come to the realization they were duped.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Yeah, not so fast there sparky. Take a closer look at that graph you sourced.
Trump's policies were not felt until late 2019 as the policy was finally implemented fully in early 2019. See the dip beginning? The pandemic exacerbated the speed at which those market forces were felt, but they hit the market and consumer hard.




People being happy does not equate to understanding what was happening to them. I'm sure people on the Titanic were pretty happy until someone wondered, "what was that bang?" and noticed the water coming in on the lower decks. That's the tough part of complex systems. Without understanding the machinations of what is put in play it is easy to become complacent and be happy while things sink around you.

Trumps policies certainly are catastrophic to much of the nation. For a party that likes to cry about wealth transfers, Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 did nothing but give billionaires free money and pass that cost onto the tax payers, most of which received very little in comparison. So not only did they get crumbs from the meal, they got left paying the tab, a bill that will take generations to paydown. But focus on happiness factor, until they see the bill and come to the realization they were duped.

So you seriously think that none of Trump’s policies had any effect until #### hit the fan with the pandemic? And you’re arguing with me that you’re not shifting things to fit your narrative? Please show me any data that supports your position. I’ve shown you data that supports mine, you can either ignore that and move the goalposts to fit your narrative, or actually provide any data and evidence that backs your views.

For example, when you talk about Trump’s tax cuts doing nothing for poorer people, are you going to completely ignore the doubling of the standard deduction, which is going to basically only affect the lower and middle classes?

[Engine09]

I don't think I've seen this story mentioned yet, I might have missed it but I wanted to be sure no one else did because it's a doozy.

Tucker Carlson claims he was was attacked in bed by a demon, during the interview he said he had scratches on his torso and was bleeding but didn't show any evidence. Not even photos, too bad he had such a great opportunity to prove his magical beliefs and provide proof in the supernatural. Real spiritual warfare stuff, scary!!

I wonder if Danielle Smith is involved in this spiritual warfare? Maybe she's the demon who attacked him in bed during his Alberta trip?

F'ing loonie.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-demon-attack

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

So you seriously think that none of Trump’s policies had any effect until #### hit the fan with the pandemic?

No, I know those policies had a negative affect the second they were passed. It was only a matter of time before the negative impacts would be felt. It doesn't take an economist to understand that by excessive spending and cutting revenues is certain to have immediate and long-term negative impacts.

And you’re arguing with me that you’re not shifting things to fit your narrative?

Please show me any data that supports your position. I’ve shown you data that supports mine, you can either ignore that and move the goalposts to fit your narrative, or actually provide any data and evidence that backs your views.

Your document/graph supported everything I said, almost down to the month for projection of how policies work. If you want more support, look no further than the increase in debt under Trump versus the administrations before and after.

For example, when you talk about Trump’s tax cuts doing nothing for poorer people, are you going to completely ignore the doubling of the standard deduction, which is going to basically only affect the lower and middle classes?

Which is temporary and also just reduced revenues. All he did was provide temporary relief while piling up the debt on the corporate credit card. This is why every company Trump touches ends up in bankruptcy. He admits it himself, his companies live on leverage of debt and that is why they all crash. Without new sources of income the weight of that spending is certain to cause catastrophic failure. If you're not paying attention to both sides of the balance sheet you're missing pretty much everything.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Ok great - so you agree that by 2019, much of Trump's monetary policy should have started to take effect. So does mean you agree that 2019 being the highest YoY growth rate in real median household income over the last 40 years is at least partially due to Trump's economic policies?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Because if you agree with that, you might be able to make the jump that a lot of people were happy with Trump's economy and saw the effects of that in their purchasing power, and therefore it's not just "dumb American idiots" that voted for him. And that Trump's economic policies might not be as bad as being painted here by the hyperbolic catastrophizers.

Again, you need to consider the pandemic. The data collection for 2019's number took place in February-April 2020, and the non-response rate was significantly higher than in prior years and wasn't random either:

In 2020, higher income households were considerably more likely to respond to the CPS ASEC, biasing income statistics up. With our adjusted weights, we estimate that the survey overstated household income across the distribution, including by 2.8 percent at the median.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/C...-wp2020-10.pdf

Adjusting for that, the real median household income (in 2023 dollars) would be $78.9K, lower than it was in 2020, 2021, and 2023. And the growth rate would be roughly on par with what we saw from 2022 to 2023.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Engine09

I don't think I've seen this story mentioned yet, I might have missed it but I wanted to be sure no one else did because it's a doozy.

Tucker Carlson claims he was was attacked in bed by a demon, during the interview he said he had scratches on his torso and was bleeding but didn't show any evidence. Not even photos, too bad he had such a great opportunity to prove his magical beliefs and provide proof in the supernatural. Real spiritual warfare stuff, scary!!

I wonder if Danielle Smith is involved in this spiritual warfare? Maybe she's the demon who attacked him in bed during his Alberta trip?

F'ing loonie.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-demon-attack

Sounds like sleep paralysis and then he lied about the scratch marks for effect or the entire thing is a lie!

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Sounds like sleep paralysis and then he lied about the scratch marks for effect or the entire thing is a lie!

At this point I think the majority of them are bored and seeing how far they can go with the bats### craziness before their target audience gets wise.

They should already know there is no line.

[Engine09]

Every single one of these wacky demon stories can be attributed to sleep paralysis or food poisoning and a religious nutjob with an overactive imagination and ability to tell bold faced lies. This scumbag had zero proof about the Dominion voting machines and kept up the grift for Trump until he was fired, now he's just shifted to spiritual warfare gobbledy####.

[direwolf]

The GOP now officially projected to win the House.

[Monahammer]

GOP Sweep. Lets see how much they value the Constitution and it's amendments when it comes to term limits.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by direwolf

The GOP now officially projected to win the House.

It's still going to be a pretty tiny majority of maybe 5-7 seats. And with Trump pulling several Republicans out of Congress to join his administration, it's going to be even tighter until special elections are held. That's completely different than Trump's first term where they had a ~50 seat majority for the first 2 years.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

GOP Sweep. Lets see how much they value the Constitution and it's amendments when it comes to term limits.

Trump will introduce term limits for everyone, and rescind the term limits for the office of president. And they will love him for it.

You think 78 year old Trump is bad, imagine 90 year old Trump calling the shots .

[Paulie Walnuts]

He is already talking about running for a 3rd term.

He will and he will win.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Trump will introduce term limits for everyone, and rescind the term limits for the office of president. And they will love him for it.

You think 78 year old Trump is bad, imagine 90 year old Trump calling the shots .

I brought this up before but we all know how changing a constitutional amendment works right? This isn’t a unilateral executive branch power. If one does believe Trump has the power to do it forget about the rest because he’s a legit dictator. No a maybe dictator, not a kind of fascist, a full blown the United States is now a dictatorship under one man’s rule

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

He is already talking about running for a 3rd term.

He will and he will win.

He won’t have to win. They’ll just anoint him King.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

No, I know those policies had a negative affect the second they were passed. It was only a matter of time before the negative impacts would be felt. It doesn't take an economist to understand that by excessive spending and cutting revenues is certain to have immediate and long-term negative impacts.







Your document/graph supported everything I said, almost down to the month for projection of how policies work. If you want more support, look no further than the increase in debt under Trump versus the administrations before and after.



Which is temporary and also just reduced revenues. All he did was provide temporary relief while piling up the debt on the corporate credit card. This is why every company Trump touches ends up in bankruptcy. He admits it himself, his companies live on leverage of debt and that is why they all crash. Without new sources of income the weight of that spending is certain to cause catastrophic failure. If you're not paying attention to both sides of the balance sheet you're missing pretty much everything.

What a joke to try and have a reasonable discussion with. Constantly move goalposts to serve your own arguments and bring nothing to the table to back them up other than pointless conjecture. You are the epitome of what you claim to be against.

Thanks for the insights, we'll see you in four years when the country hasn't burned down like your constant catastrophizing whining in this thread has prophesized.

[GirlySports]

When there's an actual election in 2028 and Trump is leaving office, what are the Democrats going to run on?

[Senator Clay Davis]

It likely won't matter what they run on, they'll win by being not the incumbent.

[Snuffleupagus]

Matt Gates for AG