American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by #-3

The thing is on a statistical level you're wrong.

Statistics can pretty easily be manipulated to create a desired narrative. Wages were driven up in a lot of areas which skews the data, because they’ve still stagnated or not kept pace with inflation in a number of cases as well.

I think people feel that gains were disproportionately stilted against them, because they kept hearing that the the economy was good, and the lost accesses to those great support cheques. They were very much feeling that they had earned the gains that they did make, and inflation was eroding away much of those gains.

I think you’re really reaching here by trying to get inside the heads of hundreds of millions of American workers and applying your hypothesis so broadly across the board. I’d be interested to know what kind of real world feedback you’re basing this on.

Most people don't actually view their own income gains as part of a macro story even when they are, they have a self conception of themselves as unique and special, so when they have wage gains, they assume they have done something unique and special to earn position in society in a sense, and when society moves with them if violates that view.

Dude, what the #### are you taking about? I can understand that some people might delude themselves with this kind of thinking but I can’t imagine this being the norm for everyone. Do you really think that someone earning minimum wage for example thinks that it’s because they aren’t working hard enough or is it maybe because there are no better paying jobs available for them?

But the statistics are clear, under the Biden administration, on average, the worse off you were the more likely you were to see improvements relative to others.

Really? How much did they increase the federal minimum wage?

Even if what you’re saying were technically true, on average doesn’t mean it happened for everyone. And guess what, those people who didn’t see the gains still vote.

Cumulative % Change in Real Hourly Wages 2019-2023

Low-wage (10th percentile) 12.1%
Lower-middle-wage (avg 20th–40th) 5.0%
Middle-wage (avg 40th–60th) 3.0%
Upper-middle-wage (avg 60th–80th) 2.0%
High-wage (90th percentile) 0.9%

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/gro...oogle_vignette

Did you even read this article or try to apply some critical thinking to what was being presented? I’m not trying to be a dick here but you’re cherry picking your data to present it in a (I’m assuming unintentionally) misleading fashion.

Your source clearly shows that real wages for the lowest earners increased by 17% from 1979-2023. Do you really think that because 12% of it happened between 2019-2023 that these folks should be loving life to the point where my argument that they’re fed up is an impossible outcome?

The compounding effect of such slow growth in the decades leading up to the 12% gain would render that gain effectively useless, or at the very least unlikely to be noticeably beneficial enough to make someone think “wow my life is so good I better vote for whoever held office over the last few years so I can keep kicking inflation’s ass!”

I generally don’t mind most of your posts so I’m going to apologize in advance for being blunt because I’ve gotta be brutally honest here, as someone who on a regular basis actually speaks with lower income workers and tries to help them improve their quality of life this kind of rhetoric is damn near insulting to read through.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'm not optimistic about a Trump presidency, but half your country going to war against the other half to maintain slavery is a high bar to beat.

At least those ######bags had an economic stake in the racism, todays proudboys are just butthurt they have to ride the bus with brown people

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

It's the same thing as every really important topic. People respond to anecdotes, not evidence.

The failure of America to understand math and data is a product of a crappy education system. It's destroying the country, and now that there's going to be no federal department of education, it's only going to get worse.

A democracy only works if it is an informed democracy.

It’s not just in America - take a look at this board’s American politics threads, all of the following claims have been made:

- The economy in Biden’s term was great because Biden cleaned up Trump’s policies
- The economy in Biden’s term was bad because of Trump’s policies and the pandemic
- The economy in Trump’s first term was bad because of his policies into the pandemic
- The economy in Trump’s first term was good, but only because of Obama’s policies
- Biden’s immigration policies did not effect illegal immigration
- Biden and Trump’s immigration policies were not much different

People already have their narratives and beliefs, then skew any math or data to fit what those pre-conceived narratives are. And it’s prevalent across all demographics. It’s the way we are fed information now and how the algorithms in our news feeds and social media platforms decide what to show us, it all feeds into our tendency for confirmation bias. If we see a piece of information that confirms our internal narrative, it must be correct and great information. If we see a piece of information that is at odds with our beliefs, it’s disregarded or skewed to fit the narrative we believe. There’s multiple examples of this happening even over the last few pages.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

It’s not just in America - take a look at this board’s American politics threads, all of the following claims have been made:

- The economy in Biden’s term was great because Biden cleaned up Trump’s policies
- The economy in Biden’s term was bad because of Trump’s policies and the pandemic
- The economy in Trump’s first term was bad because of his policies into the pandemic
- The economy in Trump’s first term was good, but only because of Obama’s policies
- Biden’s immigration policies did not effect illegal immigration
- Biden and Trump’s immigration policies were not much different

All statements can be (are) true. Policy changes are not felt overnight. It can take more than a year for an operational policy to become entrenched in the apparatus and start to show measurable results. It takes about 18-24 months to feel the impact of fiscal policy change in the economy. So all the statements you made are true.

When Trump entered into office he had the benefit of the hot economy Obama's policies had created. Trump did not sign the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 until the end of December of that year. It takes time for those changes to go into effect. Some were felt during 2018, while others could not go into effect until 2019, over a year later. Those changes then have to ripple into the economy and become part of the fabric of the system people operate in. So the effect of those changes were not truly felt until mid-2019 or 2020. Those impact of those policies would then be evident until 18-24 months after the next major fiscal policy change, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, signed in November of 2021. So the "Trump economy" is the period of 2019 through 2022, as that is when the full brunt of the fiscal policy was in place. The Biden policy is having its affect in 2023 through to 18 months after the next fiscal policy goes into effect. Every president goes through the same thing of having to live through almost two years of the previous administration's policies.

People already have their narratives and beliefs, then skew any math or data to fit what those pre-conceived narratives are. And it’s prevalent across all demographics. It’s the way we are fed information now and how the algorithms in our news feeds and social media platforms decide what to show us, it all feeds into our tendency for confirmation bias. If we see a piece of information that confirms our internal narrative, it must be correct and great information. If we see a piece of information that is at odds with our beliefs, it’s disregarded or skewed to fit the narrative we believe. There’s multiple examples of this happening even over the last few pages.

Which is why you should always question the sources of information and go directly to the primary sources to get accurate and unvarnished information.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

All statements can be (are) true. Policy changes are not felt overnight. It can take more than a year for an operational policy to become entrenched in the apparatus and start to show measurable results. It takes about 18-24 months to feel the impact of fiscal policy change in the economy. So all the statements you made are true.

When Trump entered into office he had the benefit of the hot economy Obama's policies had created. Trump did not sign the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 until the end of December of that year. It takes time for those changes to go into effect. Some were felt during 2018, while others could not go into effect until 2019, over a year later. Those changes then have to ripple into the economy and become part of the fabric of the system people operate in. So the effect of those changes were not truly felt until mid-2019 or 2020. Those impact of those policies would then be evident until 18-24 months after the next major fiscal policy change, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, signed in November of 2021. So the "Trump economy" is the period of 2019 through 2022, as that is when the full brunt of the fiscal policy was in place. The Biden policy is having its affect in 2023 through to 18 months after the next fiscal policy goes into effect. Every president goes through the same thing of having to live through almost two years of the previous administration's policies.



Which is why you should always question the sources of information and go directly to the primary sources to get accurate and unvarnished information.

Ok great - so you agree that by 2019, much of Trump's monetary policy should have started to take effect. So does mean you agree that 2019 being the highest YoY growth rate in real median household income over the last 40 years is at least partially due to Trump's economic policies?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Because if you agree with that, you might be able to make the jump that a lot of people were happy with Trump's economy and saw the effects of that in their purchasing power, and therefore it's not just "dumb American idiots" that voted for him. And that Trump's economic policies might not be as bad as being painted here by the hyperbolic catastrophizers.

[photon]

"Biden talking to Twitter to have them take down nudes of his son is illegal, lets sue the government so they can't speak with social media sites." - Republicans in 2020

"Let's elect a president who owns a social media site and then he can appoint someone else to government that owns a social media site so that they can directly decide what we can say." - Republicans in 2024

[CroFlames]

As predicted, the news is just full of Trump slop and I'm already sick of it.

No one is really asking the tough questions though. What is Congress going to do about Ukraine? What is Trump's actual stance on it?

Will the tariffs affect Canada, or are we exempt because of USMCA/NAFTA.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

As predicted, the news is just full of Trump slop and I'm already sick of it.

No one is really asking the tough questions though. What is Congress going to do about Ukraine? What is Trump's actual stance on it?

Will the tariffs affect Canada, or are we exempt because of USMCA/NAFTA.

the news stations love it, the fake outrage

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

the news stations love it, the fake outrage

The kakistocracy he's building and the outrage it's causing is fake?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

As predicted, the news is just full of Trump slop and I'm already sick of it.

No one is really asking the tough questions though. What is Congress going to do about Ukraine? What is Trump's actual stance on it?

Will the tariffs affect Canada, or are we exempt because of USMCA/NAFTA.

Congress will do whatever Trump decides, and Trump will do what Putin wants.


No, we won't be exempt from tariffs, Trump will tear up USMCA if he has to.



He's already told or telegraphed us all of this. There are no good questions to ask because everything is on the table and can and will happens if he wants it. American voters gave him and the Republicans absolute control, and we all get to live with those consequences.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The kakistocracy he's building and the outrage it's causing is fake?

To the news channels they love it, they're not really outraged.

I believe you more, I know you're outraged.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

To the news channels they love it, they're not really outraged.

I believe you more, I know you're outraged.

Sounds like you have a handle on the game being played and are ripe to give a TED Talk, or at least a lecture to the Society of Professional Journalists or American Press Institute.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Sounds like you have a handle on the game being played and are ripe to give a TED Talk, or at least a lecture to the Society of Professional Journalists or American Press Institute.

I'm a nobody but you can see the news channels propping up Trump all these years, giving him so much air time. So much so he uses it to become a victim.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Congress will do whatever Trump decides, and Trump will do what Putin wants.


No, we won't be exempt from tariffs, Trump will tear up USMCA if he has to.



He's already told or telegraphed us all of this. There are no good questions to ask because everything is on the table and can and will happens if he wants it. American voters gave him and the Republicans absolute control, and we all get to live with those consequences.

USMCA was his ####ing idea in the first place lol.

Christ almighty what a ####ing timeline.

I wonder if it could be as simple as flattery. Zelenskyy phones Trump and tells him he's never seen him glow like this before. And by golly sir, did you lose weight? I mistook you for a prime Hulk Hogan for a second there. And did you hear what people are saying sir? They are saying you have the biggest dick of any American president. Maybe ever. That's what they are saying sir and I beleive them.

Can I get some more tanks, HIMARS and patriots please?

FOX NEWS headline: Trump Agrees to give Ukraine all the Weapons to defeat Russia.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

USMCA was his ####ing idea in the first place lol.

Christ almighty what a ####ing timeline.

I wonder if it could be as simple as flattery. Zelenskyy phones Trump and tells him he's never seen him glow like this before. And by golly sir, did you lose weight? I mistook you for a prime Hulk Hogan for a second there. And did you hear what people are saying sir? They are saying you have the biggest dick of any American president. Maybe ever. That's what they are saying sir and I beleive them.

Can I get some more tanks, HIMARS and patriots please?

FOX NEWS headline: Trump Agrees to give Ukraine all the Weapons to defeat Russia.

I know you're being sarcastic, but doing that would actually have a good chance of working. If not fully, it would most definitely influence Trump in such a way to make the final deal better than it would be without doing that. He's very easily to manipulate and influence, as long as you are willing to swallow your own pride and let him "win" vs. you, act subordinate around him in person and especially when the cameras are on and praise him on his decisions and intelligence.

[Paulie Walnuts]

When do we hear about the Director of Incel? I am sure Gullfoss will let us know as soon as it's announced.

[Dion]

How much of this story is true?, We do know that his mother, Anne Watters, is a democratic voter who has make her views very clear to her son before.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1681124414778122246

Then comes Thanksgiving and Jesse is butt hurt.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1856144850204389685

[activeStick]

Who cares?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Congress will do whatever Trump decides, and Trump will do what Putin wants.


No, we won't be exempt from tariffs, Trump will tear up USMCA if he has to.



He's already told or telegraphed us all of this. There are no good questions to ask because everything is on the table and can and will happens if he wants it. American voters gave him and the Republicans absolute control, and we all get to live with those consequences.

Hard to say if he applies tariffs across the board for Canadian goods. The current free trade deal is one that he negotiated, so he might be more willing to stick with it. The last time Trump tried with tariffs against Canada, we strategically applied our own which quickly brought him to the table.

He also promised to cut energy bills in the U.S. by 50% and they already import a lot of electricity from Canada (Americans pay less for Canadian electricity than Canadians do). It's not a resource that the U.S. could quickly replace or work around. If Canada wanted, it could make life difficult for him.

[Looch City]

Who cares about Americans at all really anymore. I'm 100% with Melania now, who the #### cares. Look after yourself and #### everyone else.