American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

They’re still counting. He’ll end around 305-310 or so. And yes, it is. And yes, the polling sucked and was off.

Trump already has 295, they just declared Alaska his. He almost certainly finishes with 312 after they count Nevada and Arizona.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Can you expand on this?

How do you envision this happening?

What do you think it will look like?

Does he really have to spell it out. We all know how this ends, unless Biden really wants to go off the reservation.

[undercoverbrother]

I'm sure Trump will be magnanimous

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Does he really have to spell it out. We all know how this ends, unless Biden really wants to go off the reservation.

ya

that's why I asked him

I'm not a mind reader

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Yeah, the inflation piece was strange. It was worldwide inflation; it was not specific to the US. We are all feeling it.

Trump saying no more inflation and saying he will tariff imports well ugh that is going to bring back inflation that is specific to the US.

When people say American voters are dumb, they really are.

Or, and hear me out, when every democrat and left leaning media outlet went out and told America that Joe Biden is sharper than he's ever been,and then he basically #### his pants on national tv, voters might have lost any faith in the Dems they might have had.

They ####ed this up from day 1. They didn't have a primary, they probably didn't run their best candidate and they got clobbered up and down the ballot.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Can you expand on this?

How do you envision this happening?

What do you think it will look like?

Know you weren't asking me, but I see an end to the Ukraine/Russia conflict too. It'll end with some kind of Russian military presence in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. They might be recognized as "independent" states by Russia. This was basically the status quo prior to the war.

Russia is extremely war weary. They are looking for a way to save face. Trump will give them that. Trump will also likely be pulling back military support for Ukraine, which will force Ukraine's hand. Trump will hold some press conference giving himself a major pat on the back.

Basically, we go back to the status quo before the war. Everyone involved gets to spin it like they've won. In reality hundreds of thousands of people died needlessly. Russia has hastened their inevitable decline away from being a world power, as they've depleted their previously massive stores of weapons and accelerated their own population decline.

[photon]

Trump stops sending aid to Ukraine, the void isn't filled by other nations, Ukraine concedes a bunch of land to Russia to end the war, isn't that how it would end?

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Does he really have to spell it out. We all know how this ends, unless Biden really wants to go off the reservation.

He’s got a couple months left of that presidential immunity, might as well go all out.

[dino7c]

Russia just takes a bunch of land by force, no biggie lol...that should tide them over. And any other country looking to take somethig from a weaker country.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by blankall

Know you weren't asking me, but I see an end to the Ukraine/Russia conflict too. It'll end with some kind of Russian military presence in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. They might be recognized as "independent" states by Russia. This was basically the status quo prior to the war.

Russia is extremely war weary. They are looking for a way to save face. Trump will give them that. Trump will also likely be pulling back military support for Ukraine, which will force Ukraine's hand. Trump will hold some press conference giving himself a major pat on the back.

Basically, we go back to the status quo before the war. Everyone involved gets to spin it like they've won. In reality hundreds of thousands of people died needlessly. Russia has hastened their inevitable decline away from being a world power, as they've depleted their previously massive stores of weapons and accelerated their own population decline.

Originally Posted by photon

Trump stops sending aid to Ukraine, the void isn't filled by other nations, Ukraine concedes a bunch of land to Russia to end the war, isn't that how it would end?

Easy options to put forward with no dog in the fight.

There is a lot of other land still under Ivan's heel.

Sorry I appreciate your responses and don't mean to lash out.

All that death and destruction for naught.

[Senator Clay Davis]

And we know Russia will take some time to re-arm and simply invade again, this time backed by the US, and obviously Ukraine will get crushed.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

And we know Russia will take some time to re-arm and simply invade again, this time backed by the US.

Correct

As painful and scary as it is, The West needs to push the fight.

Perhaps this even drives change in Russia, unlikely, but perhaps

[Senator Clay Davis]

Which is why I said Biden going off the reservation might be Ukraine's only hope. Transfer some nukes to them so they have some kind of leverage, without it they are a sitting duck.

[afc wimbledon]

The Baltic states are probably living on borrowed time

[Sainters7]

I keep reading on Twitter, and people alluding to it on here, that Republicans took the House of Reps as well, but whenever I look into it myself, it's still up for grabs...is there something I'm missing?

I see the Reps are currently up in that regard, but it doesn't seem settled yet.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Russia just takes a bunch of land by force, no biggie lol...that should tide them over. And any other country looking to take somethig from a weaker country.

Russia likely doesn't "take" the land. Instead Russia confirms the independence of East Ukraine, something which they had already done. Prior to the Russian invasion, Ukraine was already involved in a bloody war that had claimed the lives of 10s of thousands. Donetsk and Luhansk had declared independence in 2004. Things escalated into all out war in 2014.

Russia has always promoted themselves as liberators. They get to continue doing that by having what is basically a regional Russian government in Donetsk and Luhansk. It's possible that after declaring "independence" that Donetsk and Luhansk request to join the Russian Federation. However, that's likely several years down the road, with Trump backing some farcical form of independence until the heat is off.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Or, and hear me out, when every democrat and left leaning media outlet went out and told America that Joe Biden is sharper than he's ever been,and then he basically #### his pants on national tv, voters might have lost any faith in the Dems they might have had.

They ####ed this up from day 1. They didn't have a primary, they probably didn't run their best candidate and they got clobbered up and down the ballot.

Yeah I’ve said that. The best candidates quickly threw support behind Harris because they knew a 100 day campaign would ruin their careers.

The worst they had to offer lost by slim margins the battle grounds. It sucks today but if they focus on the rural areas more and have a better candidate they should be able to win next time around if the US still has elections.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by V

I blame Veep. When I see her on stage all I can see is Selena. I can't be the only one.

There probably less swearing so I prefer Veep.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The Baltic states are probably living on borrowed time

The Baltic States are NATO Countries, Russia rolls in their it is on, that is unless the US are pussies.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by #-3

US is a Net Exporter of O&G, so the impacts will probably more macro than directly targeting Alberta.

I know other commodities better, but based on what I know of them. If he creates wide spread retaliatory tariffs, then in could increase demand from products in other countries outside of the US, but Alberta isn't the best place to ship from to capture that demand. But you could also see Canada follow suit in a effort to keep the in the US's good graces, than you could see us get into a trade war with other potential customers, but also having exclusive access to the US market.

Moral of the story, if they vote for chaos it's really hard to predict what happens.

It would make sense for them to rely on their domestic industry and tariff foreign oil. If you slap a 20% tariff you can buy your domestic oil at say 70 bucks a barrel and then if foreigners want to get in the market they sell to you at 57 bucks a barrel to compete with the cost of US domestic oil after the tariff.