American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[Tron_fdc]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

What does Trump in power mean for Alberta O&G?

I know he wants to do more internally for USA such as manufacturing and ignore climate change stuff, so if they develop more O&G in the US, does that hurt Alberta more than what Harris was going to do?

It's complicated. Depends if he tariffs it. Even then who knows.

In my opinion I doubt it affects it. The US isn't producing enough oil to be self sufficient, so they still need Canadian oil. The refiners that buy it need to refine and sell so they would have to pay the tariff, and pass that to consumers in higher fuel prices because CDN producers (I doubt) are going to eat the tariff. So that is complicated.

If he tariffs it (I heard 10-20%) likely all it is going to do is create inflation via higher fuel costs in the USA. MAYBE it creates an export issue in Canada if for some reason they "unleash" their own industry to fill demand, but that would take time and cost money to retro refining facilities.

It's a global industry though with an outrageous amount of moving parts. Too many "ifs" so I doubt anyone really knows.

[dino7c]

Trump got millions less votes this time...Harris just badly underperformed Biden

[woob]

Is KeystoneXL back on now?

[sarge]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Trump got millions less votes this time...Harris just badly underperformed Biden

That wasn’t her fault, it was caused by the epidemic of misogyny in Murica.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by Muta

Only 1,460 days left until the US gets a chance to boot the bloated maggot and his far reich loser party again.

We got him this time!

This time FOR SURE!

[Old Yeller]

I'm trying to find good news in all of this so at least Kari Lake lost.

... but Ted Cruz won... by a lot.


I'm still trying to find good news in all of this.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

What does Trump in power mean for Alberta O&G?

I know he wants to do more internally for USA such as manufacturing and ignore climate change stuff, so if they develop more O&G in the US, does that hurt Alberta more than what Harris was going to do?

US is a Net Exporter of O&G, so the impacts will probably more macro than directly targeting Alberta.

I know other commodities better, but based on what I know of them. If he creates wide spread retaliatory tariffs, then in could increase demand from products in other countries outside of the US, but Alberta isn't the best place to ship from to capture that demand. But you could also see Canada follow suit in a effort to keep the in the US's good graces, than you could see us get into a trade war with other potential customers, but also having exclusive access to the US market.

Moral of the story, if they vote for chaos it's really hard to predict what happens.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Old Yeller

I'm trying to find good news in all of this so at least Kari Lake lost.

... but Ted Cruz won... by a lot.


I'm still trying to find good news in all of this.

California voted against incarcerated people’s rights, chose not to increase the minimum wage, and voted against rent control. But they did vote resoundingly for the proposition that punishes specifically the one entity that brought forward the rent control question so all’s well that ends well. Oh they did vote to increase sentences for certain crimes that are now misdemeanours so there’s that. See good news.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Old Yeller

I'm still trying to find good news in all of this.

There is no good news about any of this crap. This is gonna be a disaster for everyone except mega-rich white dudes.

[opendoor]

Beyond any criticism of the Harris campaign and the choices they made, it was always going to be an uphill battle. I think the image below (from March, but things didn't change after) really illustrates the state of the race. Other than Truman in 1948, no party has maintained control of the White House with an approval rating anywhere near as low as Biden had:





And if the last 8 years of consistently low approval ratings continues under Trump's 2nd term, I suspect we'll see a reaction against that too.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by woob

Is KeystoneXL back on now?

Jason Kenny was a genius!! Triple meat at Subway!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Old Yeller

I'm trying to find good news in all of this so at least Kari Lake lost.

... but Ted Cruz won... by a lot.


I'm still trying to find good news in all of this.

Abortion rights in the US are constitutional rights to fetal viability in 7 more states. The right to an abortion in cases of incest rape or medical risk was enshrined in Nebraska.

Thats generally positive. It got 57% in Florida but didn’t quite pass. If they can get it on the ballot in a governor election year it could decide the Florida governor.

So generally positive news for abortion rights at the state level which should ensure that federally in can’t be banned.

[DeluxeMoustache]

A big Dem screwup was not speaking to inflation

If they made America understand that the root cause was the pandemic, partially the massive injection of money and more importantly the supply side shock, and that it was brought under control, that would have been positive messaging

It was a global issue, not something they should own

Rather they acknowledged that it was an ongoing concern, and played in to the Republicans pinning it on their administration

Further, the idea of across the board tariffs helping anything is absurd

The economy was a key concern and they blew it. Spectacularly

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

A big Dem screwup was not speaking to inflation

If they made America understand that the root cause was the pandemic, partially the massive injection of money and more importantly the supply side shock, and that it was brought under control, that would have been positive messaging

It was a global issue, not something they should own

Rather they acknowledged that it was an ongoing concern, and played in to the Republicans pinning it on their administration

Further, the idea of across the board tariffs helping anything is absurd

The economy was a key concern and they blew it. Spectacularly

Yeah, the inflation piece was strange. It was worldwide inflation; it was not specific to the US. We are all feeling it.

Trump saying no more inflation and saying he will tariff imports well ugh that is going to bring back inflation that is specific to the US.

When people say American voters are dumb, they really are.

[Old Yeller]

https://i.imgur.com/wwX9H5T.mp4

Not sure how to embed imgur, but it's a clip of how many counties Harris outperformed Biden in.

[dino7c]

They now control everything...lets see how great America is again

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Old Yeller

https://i.imgur.com/wwX9H5T.mp4

Not sure how to embed imgur, but it's a clip of how many counties Harris outperformed Biden in.

To be fair Trump also underpreformed Trump

Turnout was down

[Huntingwhale]

Whelp, I'm not as upset as I thought I would be as this is who voters wanted and the numbers show it. Voters who lived through the previous Trump administration, who then voted Biden in 2020, saw fit to select Trump again. Who am I to try and argue logic with that. There is no denying who the winner is and where American's headspace are.

I'd be laughing my ass off if they weren't some economic powerhouse, but unfortunately the Ukraine factor plays in. I don't imagine many magas care, probably a bunch in this thread celebrating the win don't care either. That's fine. This result was always a risk and here we are.

I bid this thread adieu, as I plan on living in a US political-free bubble for as best I can.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

It's complicated. Depends if he tariffs it. Even then who knows.

In my opinion I doubt it affects it. The US isn't producing enough oil to be self sufficient, so they still need Canadian oil. The refiners that buy it need to refine and sell so they would have to pay the tariff, and pass that to consumers in higher fuel prices because CDN producers (I doubt) are going to eat the tariff. So that is complicated.

If he tariffs it (I heard 10-20%) likely all it is going to do is create inflation via higher fuel costs in the USA. MAYBE it creates an export issue in Canada if for some reason they "unleash" their own industry to fill demand, but that would take time and cost money to retro refining facilities.

It's a global industry though with an outrageous amount of moving parts. Too many "ifs" so I doubt anyone really knows.

Its counter intuitive, but Biden was good for oil prices. Under Trump, you see better relations with the oil producing Gulf states. You'll see an end to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. And relaxation of export bans and drilling license bans in the US.

That means lower prices. Some firms will be able to grow in that environment with access to capital, but they can only grow to their infrastructure capacity. That's where Canada struggled last time. One customer, not enough pipelines...etc. That's changed a bit, but there's no new pipelines coming on stream in Canada other than the ones we have now or under construction.

TLDR:

Biden limits new supply = oil price high
Trump brings on supply = oil price lower

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

You'll see an end to the Russian-Ukraine conflict.

Can you expand on this?

How do you envision this happening?

What do you think it will look like?