American Politics 4.0 - Orangeyou Glad He’s Back?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Classy speech.

I wonder what that tiny dick man baby would do had he lost.

Can't believe they voted that scum back in. They deserve everything bad that is coming their way.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Trump is older than he was in 2020

Yes but Democrats are held to a higher standard. Trump can literally pretend to fellate a microphone on stage and no one cares. Imagine if Biden did that? He’s be out on the funny farm.

[DoubleF]

What does Trump in power mean for Alberta O&G?

I know he wants to do more internally for USA such as manufacturing and ignore climate change stuff, so if they develop more O&G in the US, does that hurt Alberta more than what Harris was going to do?

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I actually think there’s a high probability he might. Why wouldn’t he?

I know we’ve all resigned ourselves to king Trump’s unfettered iron fist rule but you do understand presidential term limits are the 22nd amendment right? Yes yes he’s going to rule as a god emperor but there are very specific rules regarding amendments and I don’t see 3/4 of states agreeing to abolish term limits.

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Yup. Keep going with that. Dems in a nutshell. "You're too stupid to vote the right way. We know what's best. You're a racist moron."

He's literally up across every demo. Stop telling people that you know best and start listening to their actual concerns.

He's already proven he's a disaster. Those people don't pay attention to how he's a crook, always has been. Like, go to Western Washington. I was in Moses Lake this summer and that's MAGA country as it comes. Most of the people are blissfully unaware of anything. I was there the weekend that he was shot at. People didn't even talk about it. It was on the TVs, but no one was even looking. It's apathy plain and simple. Voting is a right, but it's also a responsibility and these people are not doing their due diligence.

The last two groups I mentioned - they're the vocal minority.

[V]

I blame Veep. When I see her on stage all I can see is Selena. I can't be the only one.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

I know we’ve all resigned ourselves to king Trump’s unfettered iron fist rule but you do understand presidential term limits are the 22nd amendment right? Yes yes he’s going to rule as a god emperor but there are very specific rules regarding amendments and I don’t see 3/4 of states agreeing to abolish term limits.

Were you one of those dudes thinking a coup and attack on the capital last time was impossible as well?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

He's literally up across every demo. Stop telling people that you know best and start listening to their actual concerns.

They're concerned about inflation and voted for higher inflation! Concerned about the economy and being left behind, yet voted for a guy who will send the wealth generated from their own productivity to billionaires like Musk. So yeah. Morons.

Look. That wouldn't be my message if I were an influential American. But because I'm not, I can say the politically inconvenient truth.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Yes

I mean what would call the 1936 election then? 56? 72?

[kermitology]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

I know we’ve all resigned ourselves to king Trump’s unfettered iron fist rule but you do understand presidential term limits are the 22nd amendment right? Yes yes he’s going to rule as a god emperor but there are very specific rules regarding amendments and I don’t see 3/4 of states agreeing to abolish term limits.

The Supreme Court can just invalidate things they don't agree with, look at the 14th amendment. Since it was ratified it's been re-interpreted and elements of it have been narrowed.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I mean what would call the 1936 election then? 56? 72?

Do you think the polling nailed it? That is more of my original point.

[SebC]

Americans didn't buy A&W's 1/3 pounder because they thought the McD's 1/4 pounder was bigger.

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

What does Trump in power mean for Alberta O&G?

I know he wants to do more internally for USA such as manufacturing and ignore climate change stuff, so if they develop more O&G in the US, does that hurt Alberta more than what Harris was going to do?

His policies has been a "More cheap energy of all types". It should be beneficial though 4 years of rule probably isn't enough to get any new pipelines started (after the experiences of Keystone XL), unless the US pays for it upfront.

[Johnny Makarov]

We need a new better covid to clean things up in the US.

Can't believe they gave Trump a real drug for it. Should have just shot sunlight through his ahole as treatment.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Do you think the polling nailed it? That is more of my original point.

Polling was wrong, but not egregiously so. Each of the swing states could have gone either way, and that is what the polling suggested. They just all happen to swing to Trump.

I understand we are all probably emotional/upset/angry today, but the election was not a landslide. Biden had 306 in 2020, and certainly nobody called that a landslide. We called it a close election because it was.

[Paulie Walnuts]

That map on CNN is pretty telling. The Democrats got numbers in the big cities but got demolished in the smaller areas.

They need to get out and connect with those people. You won't win all of them, but you can take away votes at least.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I feel like the polls were way way way way way off. Like I don’t recall seeing any that stated landslide Republican win?

Many of the polls I saw had the race as a 50/50 chance of either candidate winning. That's pretty much what happened. Trump won a lot of states, but he didn't run away with them. He won Wisconsin 49.7 to 48.8 (29,322 votes), Michigan 49.8-48.3 (81,750 votes), Pennsylvania 50.5-48.5 (134,354), and Georgia 50.7-48.5 (114,970). If 180,000 people, in those four states, voted for Harris instead of voting from Trump, she has 292 votes. That's a landslide victory in your words, not my words. 180,000 votes out of 139,000,000 is about 0.13%. That is about as close as you can get. The election really could have gone either way, and it went Trump's way.

In 538's model, in their final simulation, they had Harris winning 503 times, Trump winning 495 times, and 2 times without a winner. The outcome that occurred the most times had Trump winning 312 to 226. If Trump holds onto the leads in Nevada and Arizona, that's the exact result. That results occurred in 69 of the 538's 1,000 simulations.

tl;dr 538's polling predicted the exact result as their most occurring outcome. If 0.2% of the voters in the six states Trump flipped from 2020 voted for Harris instead of Trump, she wins 306-232. The result was as close as the polls predicted.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Do you think the polling nailed it? That is more of my original point.

Once the 12-13M outstanding votes from the western states are counted, it'll likely end up Trump +2. That doesn't seem far off the polls which had it even.

And even in the swing states, polling aggregators were within a couple of points on all of them.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Were you one of those dudes thinking a coup and attack on the capital last time was impossible as well?

Well I’ve been pretty active in these threads long predating that event so if you’re unsure I’ll chalk you up as a tourist and move on. Just saying there’s lots of time for hysterics later, twisting yourself up over a possible constitutional crisis four years from now is silly. Heck be mad that the day he’s sworn in to office he declares martial law and runs the country like a dictator. That’s probably a more feasible scenario and happens sooner so at least then you’re melting down over something that may impact us all in the immediate future

[accord1999]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

That map on CNN is pretty telling. The Democrats got numbers in the big cities but got demolished in the smaller areas.

Even in the big cities, Harris's margins were noticeably lower than what Biden (and even Clinton) got, losing her the battleground states and making super-blue states like NY, NJ and Illinois closer than in past elections. Trump beat Harris by a higher margin in Florida (which was a battleground in 2016) than Harris beat Trump in NY.