US Election Prediction Thread

[flylock shox]

My optimistic prediction is that Harris wins in a nailbiter (I'll say with 276 just so I'm at least chipping in a bit on the original intent of the game).

My pessimistic prediction is that there is much more widespread - and more lethal - violence than last time.

[dissentowner]

I have already laid out exactly how this will go. It isn't young to be close, Harris will win by a lot and Trump will cry foul. He just said today how he is leading big in the polls at his rallies, it's all part of the plan. This is what I said before and nothing I have seen makes me think anything has changed.
It's all being set up so he can cry foul on election day. Harris is going to win the election handily and the Trump team knows it, their only path to victory is to skew the polling and then use that data as fuel to say the election was stolen. Does Donald Trump want Americans to vote for him? Of course he does, it strokes his ego but his end game plan does not hinge on actually winning the election by who the people vote for. Here is what I would bet anything is going to happen. the red votes will get published first, the infamous red mirage we saw last time. Trump will declare victory early on election day. As more mail in ballots and other ballots start drastically turning the election in favour of Harris he is going to cry they are stealing the election again. He is going to refuse defeat and him and Vance will insist there was voter fraud and they won. Then they are going to do everything in their power to tie everything up legally or many other shenanigans to overturn the results. Will it work? I don't think so but it's going to be a huge mess for our neighbors down south, it's going to get really crazy!

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Senate 50/50? What are you smoking? There is literally no way Jon Tester wins in Montana. Jim Justice is going to win Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia by thirty points!

In my defense I'm not following the Senate races at all and just picked a number out of thin air to answer the question. Be pretty cool if I was right though

[Dunnyberg]

Based on this my guess is Mich., Nev., and Wis. go to Kamala;
Trump gets Ariz., Ga., N.C., and Pa.
Trump wins 281 to 257.

Spoiler!

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I have already laid out exactly how this will go. It isn't young to be close, Harris will win by a lot and Trump will cry foul. He just said today how he is leading big in the polls at his rallies, it's all part of the plan. This is what I said before and nothing I have seen makes me think anything has changed.
It's all being set up so he can cry foul on election day. Harris is going to win the election handily and the Trump team knows it, their only path to victory is to skew the polling and then use that data as fuel to say the election was stolen. Does Donald Trump want Americans to vote for him? Of course he does, it strokes his ego but his end game plan does not hinge on actually winning the election by who the people vote for. Here is what I would bet anything is going to happen. the red votes will get published first, the infamous red mirage we saw last time. Trump will declare victory early on election day. As more mail in ballots and other ballots start drastically turning the election in favour of Harris he is going to cry they are stealing the election again. He is going to refuse defeat and him and Vance will insist there was voter fraud and they won. Then they are going to do everything in their power to tie everything up legally or many other shenanigans to overturn the results. Will it work? I don't think so but it's going to be a huge mess for our neighbors down south, it's going to get really crazy!

This strikes me as entirely plausible, though I'm not sure it's dependent on Trump's internal polling suggesting he's in trouble.

In a very real way, the coup attempt in 2021 has just continued to chug along ever since. The big difference is that the army he'll have at his disposal is much bigger and more dedicated this time, with many more levers to pull to bring the whole thing down.

[Johnny Makarov]

lol. dummyberg chimes in with a Trump win!

[Paulie Walnuts]

It’s hard to get through the page with pictures and walls of text.

The return key is your friend.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It’s hard to get through the page with pictures and walls of text.

The return key is your friend.

Ya, I thought so until the return key slept with my wife.

[KelVarnsen]

We’re ####ed. That’s my prediction.

[SutterBrother]

Landslide for Harris.

2022 midterms told me everything I needed to know. Women are pissed. Non college white men aren’t motivated voters. When Biden was replaced by a much younger candidate progressives were further activated.

Polling is either wrong because nobody answers their phone, or within the margin of error and therefore useless as everything is always a “toss up”. F the polls.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Senate 50/50? What are you smoking? There is literally no way Jon Tester wins in Montana. Jim Justice is going to win Joe Manchin's seat in West Virginia by thirty points!

You need to count Osborne as a Democrat and have Brown win Ohio to get to 50/50 senate. Osborne becomes the new Manchin. Really it’s 49-1-50 though

[Locke]

Originally Posted by KelVarnsen

We’re ####ed. That’s my prediction.

Um. Yeah. I'd concur with this.

[Bs&Cs]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

Landslide for Harris.

2022 midterms told me everything I needed to know. Women are pissed. Non college white men aren’t motivated voters. When Biden was replaced by a much younger candidate progressives were further activated.

Polling is either wrong because nobody answers their phone, or within the margin of error and therefore useless as everything is always a “toss up”. F the polls.

This is where I’m at. Harris sweeps the swing states besides maybe Arizona and wins in Iowa as well.

Also, Trump sweeping the swing states or winning 4/7 and the senate remaining somewhat balanced is just something that’s not going to happen either. That kind of ticket splitting just doesnt occur.

Edit: though it’s unlikely, there is opportunity for a flip in Texas or Florida. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz are special cases in terms of unpopularity and Scott barely hung onto his seat last time.

[EldrickOnIce]

Races in swing states are close, of course.
But both popular vote and EC a landslide Harris win.

[Paulie Walnuts]

RFK Jr might cost Trump Iowa lol

[GullFoss]

Electoral College results - 281-257
Who takes White House as president - trump
Popular Vote results - 52% harris
Senate split- 51-49 Republican
House split - democrat

Swing State Winners
Arizona - Trump
Georgia- Trump
Michigan - Harris
Nevada - harris
North Carolina - trump
Pennsylvania - trump
Wisconsin - Harris

Any other Upset you want to predict: the woke left, CNN and MSNBC are all very upset

[MRCboicgy]

Harris wins 286 to 252.

Women are being under-reported in the polls and WI-MI-PA-NC all fall to Harris.

Also Ted Cruz goes 1, 2, 3....Cancun

[Paulie Walnuts]

The woke left lol. A whole grown man with a G-unit avatar and calling people woke left.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Unrest. Civil war. Conservative terrorism. Bombings. Death. Murdered democratic politicians. Camps for immigrants. Mass executions. The fall of western civilization.

[Dion]

The abortion issue is the big one that will drive women in great numbers to vote and help Harris win the presidency.