American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Senator Clay Davis]

If those are the actual results she got through her process, and she's choosing to put herself out there like this, that's very brave. Would have been easier to heard it to a tie or a Trump +2. Her track record is extremely strong, pretty much an A+ pollster.

[puffnstuff]

The quantity of garbage polls put out is astounding. I believe one is Atlas, put out 3 different polls just in PA in the space of 5 days, I think, each one deeply flawed when folks dug into them. Basically worthless. But people still use them...

[devo22]

Selzer had Trump +7 in 2020, he ended up having +8. I don't know how much you can extrapolate from it in terms of national results, but Harris +3 is a remarkable poll result for sure. And from a top pollster no less.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think a lot of people don’t want to say they are voting Harris because of the backlash.

Trump might get mollywhopped

[Delthefunky]

Hopefully she just remains the underdog until election day. I want Trump voters complacent and Harris voters desperate.

[Ped]

Based on the way MAGA is begging people to vote, I think they're a little worried.

[opendoor]

I was looking at Washington state's data earlier today and it was pretty surprising and not very encouraging for Harris. For both 2020 and 2024, they haven't really done in-person voting. They mail every registered voter a ballot and generally only people who need assistance voting do anything in person.

What surprised me was the drop off in voting compared to 2020, and it wasn't evenly distributed. The most heavily Democratic counties are about 30% behind 2020's pace on average at the same point in time (4 days before the election). Whereas the counties where Republicans do better are only about 20% behind 2020's pace.

Obviously the state itself isn't in play and we can't necessarily know who is actually returning the ballots within those counties, but it might suggest lack of enthusiasm and potential turnout issues for Democrats elsewhere.

[Party Elephant]

I have nothing to add here but the political nerds on social media are all going nuts over this poll, so idk I guess that's as valuable to the conversation as betting odds?

[GGG]

Poly market swinging hard back to Harris. Up to 54/46 Trump and moving fast.

We have to wait until tomorrow for the 538 model update to see how they interpret the poll.

[octothorp]

The best case I've seen made against the Selzer poll as a powerful predictor, is because Iowan women may be reacting in part to a recent six-week abortion ban passed by the state. That may create unique circumstances and reactions that don't convey to other states in the way that general political sentiments do.

I don't totally 100% buy that... I just think it's a more credible argument than other criticisms. But where Selzer was finding the strongest surge was in women who are middle-aged and older. These women are not voting for abortion rights out of self-interest, they're voting for abortion rights for the benefit of women other than themselves, and voting on principle. And the Harris campaign has definitely tapped into that sort of messaging: that voting on abortion rights is a way for women in blue states to help protect the rights of women in very red states from their own governments. If that messaging has really resonated (and some of the early-vote figures with gender breakdowns are promising in that regard), then a surge of abortion-right female voters in Iowa may project to states where abortion is not under attack.

[The Fonz]

CockWalloper538 has Harris at +3. This is massive, likely the best news we could have expected in the days prior.

[The Fonz]

They’ve been pretty accurate in past elections

[Bs&Cs]

https://miamioh.edu/news/2024/11/mia...io-voters.html

This poll was conducted this week reporting tighter numbers than expected among likely voters in Ohio. Couple that with the Iowa poll and things start to look a little more encouraging for Harris in the blue wall.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Looks like what it comes down to is Harris is winning among women by a much larger margin than Trump is winning among men. And women are more reliable voters.

It's rather fitting that they will be his undoing. And I'm sure he will blame Taylor Swift for it, instead of the fact that he did poorly in appealing to the female voting base (or any one with half a brain).

I still think the Dems made this harder than it needed to be. Some unforced errors and fumbling softball questions. If they were smart they'd hammer on the tariff point others made. Instead they're in the ditches throwing Trump-level insults back at him and his contingent of voters. Just a big waste of energy from them and it makes them look ruffled. All his noise should just be water off their backs as they feed him his lunch.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Ped

Based on the way MAGA is begging people to vote, I think they're a little worried.

Yeah, Elon essentially imploring them to pester and spam every online group they have and drag every one they know to vote.

Doesn't sound like a group coasting to victory to me.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

CockWalloper538 has Harris at +3. This is massive, likely the best news we could have expected in the days prior.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Even if he wins, is he gonna make it to January 20? He is deteriorating rapidly, far quicker than Biden.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852925456380571887

[direwolf]

Despite some encouraging polls for Harris this week, I still think it's probably neck and neck and whoever wins, it'll be by a razor thin margin.

However, Trump and the GOP are acting like they've already lost and seem more concerned with making plans to contest the results, refuse to certify, and all kinds of other stupid bulls***. And yea, Mental Trump is deteriorating rapidly and he's acting like he just doesn't give a crap anymore.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Even if he wins, is he gonna make it to January 20? He is deteriorating rapidly, far quicker than Biden.

That's likely what the GOP is banking on. If they win I would bet a large amount of money that the 25th amendment gets invoked before Trump's term is up and couch ####er gets installed as president. Then the shift from United States into Gilead gets kicked into high gear

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Even if he wins, is he gonna make it to January 20? He is deteriorating rapidly, far quicker than Biden.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852925456380571887

Man of the People. True Servant Leadership.