American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[scotty2hotty]

If Harris loses and democrats launch any kind of investigation: “Look at these sore losers! Trying to steal another election!”

If Trump loses: “They stole the election! Everyone take up arms! The revolution starts today!”

Double standard is now the acceptable norm.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by activeStick

He took such a hard veer from being a progressive over to the right. I'm not sure what happened there...

He is an opportunist. There was a significant progressive movement when he was running and he played into that market to get elected. He duped those voters. Now he is focused on supporting Israel and making the border more secure. In two years he'll be influenced by whatever is significant at that time.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Yeah Fetterman is a loser. He’s trying to be the cool guy playing both sides wearing a hoodie and shorts.

Nothing pure or special about him.

[trackercowe]

At least the Flames play on Tuesday, which provides a small distraction for that night. Hopefully Harris wins in a landslide so there's no controversy holding up the election for weeks (or months) to come. The Republicans need to find a way to move on from Trump and MAGA immediately. I wonder if Vance can help initiate that, as I've heard he will likely be their next candidate in 2028.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by PuckSlap

He did?? Honest to goodness, I don’t follow politics that much. He seems like a good liberal.. the fact that he cares about people. I find allot of new conservatives, just come across as disingenuous. Same with new liberals in some cases

Yeah, I can't remember exactly when it happened... But it was one of the most confusing things I've seen of a politician

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Something’s bothering me about Trump’s ‘secret’ comment. Everyone assumes he was referring to a contingent election, which may be the case. But he specifically said that the senate is in good shape and the house should be ok with their little secret. He was clearly talking about house, which doesn’t affect the presidential election. I can’t for the life of me think of how they could impact the house races in some underhanded, ‘secret’ way though. So maybe he was just spewing BS as usual.

I do think that the most likely explanation for that is just his usual free-form word-association. Went from talking about the 'secret' he has with the house speaker, to thinking about the house and so saying something about that.

There was an interesting article this last week that speculated that the plan here was to create court delays that would cause state-level judges to put an injunction on certification, and then attempt to run out the clock past December 11 (not actually requiring a judge to overturn any election results), so that no electoral voters would be certified for those states. However, from my reading of it, the recent electoral vote count act explicitly requires congress to use vote counts that state or federal courts change after December 11 but before January 6. So there's no legitimate reason for a judge to issue an injunction against certification; it will require judges to actively overturn election results. And I'm not saying that's impossible, just that it's an extremely high bar that even highly partisan judges may balk at.

[PuckSlap]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Yeah, I can't remember exactly when it happened... But it was one of the most confusing things I've seen of a politician

Maybe the stroke affected him more than we know.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

The Republicans need to find a way to move on from Trump and MAGA immediately. I wonder if Vance can help initiate that, as I've heard he will likely be their next candidate in 2028.

Have you not seen or heard a word Vance has said since he became the VP nominee? He is probably a worse choice than Trump himself.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by chedder

Have you not seen or heard a word Vance has said since he became the VP nominee? He is probably a worse choice than Trump himself.

I remember people saying the same thing about Pence. But At least he did the right thing when the chips were on the table… I don’t know if Vance would have done that same.

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by belsarius

I remember people saying the same thing about Pence. But At least he did the right thing when the chips were on the table… I don’t know if Vance would have done that same.

Vance would not have done the right thing. Vance will do what helps Vance and his money men.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Vance said he wouldn’t have done the same. Vance is a piece of #### who bangs his couch. Enough said

[activeStick]

Oh Muricans...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852793491400933655

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

At least the Flames play on Tuesday, which provides a small distraction for that night. Hopefully Harris wins in a landslide so there's no controversy holding up the election for weeks (or months) to come. The Republicans need to find a way to move on from Trump and MAGA immediately. I wonder if Vance can help initiate that, as I've heard he will likely be their next candidate in 2028.

If or when trump loses, he will never concede, he will probably immediately announce he is running for president in 2028 and then claim any investigations or criminal cases are election interference. The gop will not be moving on very easily from what they have wrought.
I doubt Vance would be the candidate, his record unlikeability isnt just with dems, hed never win the primaries.

[octothorp]

As much as I feel anxious about the election, I'm excited for the polling drama this time around. Feels like the whole industry is on the verge of meltdown: you've got the influx of low-quality partisan polls; you've got aggregators who are accusing the polling industry of hedging (even Silver got on this earlier this week after defending it); you've got the suspicious relationship between polls and betting markets (again, Silver at the center of it); response rates have dropped from 80% in the 90s to 10% a decade ago to apparently 1% for some pollsters now. Pollsters have been trying to keep up by increasingly focusing on weighting poll results based on anticipated turnout of different demographics, but in an extremely entrenched election where it's all about turnout, how do you even anticipate turnout when the poll response rate is so low?

If I could just totally rebuilt the industry, I'd entirely separate out the process of conducting surveys and the process of building polling models. Have survey data go into an industry-wide collective aggregate that all pollsters can then select based on their preferred methodologies, and build their own turnout models. This creates a layer of transparency and reproduceability of results. Stop talking about margin of error, which is an antiquated idea that creates a false sense of security.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Oh Muricans...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852793491400933655

How many people are as equally uninformed and will vote for Trump thinking he will "fix" inflation with tariffs instead of doing the opposite? Millions? Tens of millions?

The Dems should have be hammering this point constantly. The most hardcore Trump cultists will assume it's a lie and believe him without question, but there has to be enough rational people among his voters to swing things enough to help Harris win. Or maybe not but they should be trying.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by DownInFlames

How many people are as equally uninformed and will vote for Trump thinking he will "fix" inflation with tariffs instead of doing the opposite? Millions? Tens of millions?


The Dems should have be hammering this point constantly. The most hardcore Trump cultists will assume it's a lie and believe him without question, but there has to be enough rational people among his voters to swing things enough to help Harris win. Or maybe not but they should be trying.

It's such an obvious thing for them to use to their advantage, and that's why the Dems haven't and won't!

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Truly remarkable a man this unwell has a chance to win.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852843438129250564

[octothorp]

And speaking of polling, this is beyond shocking: Selzer, one of the most highly ranked pollsters in the country, just dropped her final poll, +3 for Harris in Iowa. It's possible this is a huge polling miss, but even something like Trump +4 would have been seen as very good news for the Democrats in terms of the national landscape.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...e/75354033007/

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by octothorp

And speaking of polling, this is beyond shocking: Selzer, one of the most highly ranked pollsters in the country, just dropped her final poll, +3 for Harris in Iowa. It's possible this is a huge polling miss, but even something like Trump +4 would have been seen as very good news for the Democrats in terms of the national landscape.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...e/75354033007/

There were also three new Marist polls a couple days ago (also a highly respected A rated pollster) that had Harris up in all three of the blue wall states (PA, WI, MI). Not sure whether this means anything this close to election day, but I guess we'll find out in a couple of days.

[burn_this_city]

Genuinely think this could be a landslide, all the signs are there. People are sick of Donald Trump and his circus act.