American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by chedder

DJT stock down 43% in the last three days. Wonder if the wall street bros aren't so sure of a Trump win.

There are so many intertwined forces that it is impossible to read anything into it.

• There's definitely some pump and dump action on the stock itself.
• A misguided force thinking that if Trump wins that DJT is actually going to be worth some.
• Polymarket being manipulated to show Trump strength, which in turn fuels DJT, which fuels other betting markets and PM...
• Probably some intentionally skewed polls being released

None of that means that anyone has any good reason to think Harris is a strong favorite. It seems pretty obvious though that all the predictive markets have been completely manipulated.

So... back to 50/50

[GGG]

I think the wash trading here is being misinterpreted as artificially inflating trumps odds. In a regular stock pump and dump scheme the wash trading increases prices of stocks by creating the appearance of demand to buy and sell the commodity which draws in other people to buy and sell the commodity. I don’t think in a betting market you would have the same affect as there isn’t a fixed volume of stock available.

None of the articles are stating that it artificially changes odds instead just the apparent demand

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/3...g-researchers/

Harris up to 42% on polymarket and at 48% on 538. That’s effectively the same prediction.

[Slava]

There was an article today in the WSJ with the guy who put $30m on Trump to win. He said he flat out did it for other reasons. Basically, when it seems like Trump will win, other things rally and he could make money there. Those betting markets are meaningless until you get to a 70/30 split or better, and it never got that high.

Realistically, there’s probably a good value on Harris to win though (betting-wise). The early vote demographics are predominantly women (about 54%), and those aren’t Trump voters flocking to the polls. States like PA are overwhelmingly women as well and if that holds then you have to think this is similar to 2008 where things looked close but then Obama won handily.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

uhhhhh is he ok?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852543627534414086

[Paulie Walnuts]

He talking about Arnold Palmer again ?

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think the wash trading here is being misinterpreted as artificially inflating trumps odds. In a regular stock pump and dump scheme the wash trading increases prices of stocks by creating the appearance of demand to buy and sell the commodity which draws in other people to buy and sell the commodity. I don’t think in a betting market you would have the same affect as there isn’t a fixed volume of stock available.

None of the articles are stating that it artificially changes odds instead just the apparent demand

https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/3...g-researchers/

Harris up to 42% on polymarket and at 48% on 538. That’s effectively the same prediction.

My take is that it renders it manipulated and unreliable as a predictive market. Wash trading is going to create some momentum for the betting favorite at the time that will move it to a stronger favorite and get some coat-tails when they see more money going to the favorite.

It seems likely there was some manipulation that spiked Trump's odds on Polymarket and DJT's price and they fed upon each other. Now they are both going back to a corrected market value (whatever that is for DJT )

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Are you saying the tapes are fake or that they're not important?

I dont know? Can you prove they're real? Has anyone/anything reputable corroborated this? I mean all thats released is a minute long nothing burger. Ive yet to see any organization with any kind of reputation catch on to this. If theres supposed 100 hours why not release it?

I wouldnt take anything from a "MAGA TRUMP 2024" account serious and I doubt you would either. Just cause this is stuff you wanna hear doesnt make it reputable and Paulie spewing X posts with literal randoms in here is pretty pointless and means nothing. Its the same fringe nonsense Yoho got chased out of here for just its on the opposite end of the spectrum.

[Dion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852372933076734413

[Dion]

Trump has clearly lost it this time

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852546912370544659

[Paulie Walnuts]

Just remember Americans voted in a man giving fellatio to a microphone stand in 2016 and they have a good chance to make him president again.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

If anyone bought on Kamala at the bottom of the market (when you could almost get 3x back betting for her) you made a great bet and I'm envious. She was as low as 33.9% and now all the way up to 42% and rising fast.

She might not win (I now think she will) but she has a much, much better chance than 3/1. I wish I hadn't hesitated, I knew it was a good bet. I think I still might throw a bit of cash on her winning the popular vote. Polymarket has her at 69%, but it should be 95%, imo, so that's still a really solid bet.

Sorry for all the betting talk for those that don't like it!

[nfotiu]

My wife got invited to a Trump rally today by a recently met friend that she had so far avoided talking politics with.

It had me wondering whey Trump is going to a little mountainy town in Virginia the Saturday before the election. I drive through that area on the way to VA Tech, and Trump Town Trump store is right there.

Spoiler!

Spoiler!

https://www.wdbj7.com/2024/07/14/doz...ation-attempt/

So, this is the Trump Town Store owner's big day, but one problem (or is it a problem?). 3 Trump Town employees have charged him with indecent exposure and assault.

https://www.wdbj7.com/2024/10/30/tru...cent-exposure/

Of course he claims it is politically motivated as he is running for mayor of Boones Mill (a town with a population of 261 down from 285 in 2000).

What are the chance that this guy ends up on stage today or that Trump goes to his store?

[puffnstuff]

This episode of Election is really jumping the shark now

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-demon-attack

[Paulie Walnuts]

I can’t believe someone would spend their own money to open a business like that.

The Trump Americans are truly some of the most embarrassing people in the world.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

This episode of Election is really jumping the shark now

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...n-demon-attack

Carlson comparing Trump to a dad coming home: “

He’s not vengeful. He loves his children. Disobedient as they may be, he loves them. Because they’re his children. They live in his house. But he’s very disappointed in their behavior. And he’s going to have to let them know,” Carlson said.

“When Dad gets home, you know what he says? ‘You’ve been a bad girl. You’ve been a bad little girl, and you’re getting a vigorous spanking right now.’”

That last paragraph is super creepy

[Senator Clay Davis]

I sincerely hope there comes a day when politics can return to being the boring dork thing it was in the past. Cause this isn't even entertaining by the way, it's just cringe pilled onto even more cringe with a cringe cherry on top. #MakePoliticsBoringAgain

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...conway/680456/

Wild stuff.

He fires Loomer because of her hideous plastic surgery.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Patek23

I dont know? Can you prove they're real? Has anyone/anything reputable corroborated this? I mean all thats released is a minute long nothing burger. Ive yet to see any organization with any kind of reputation catch on to this. If theres supposed 100 hours why not release it?

Apparently the info is credible enough for the Guardian to post a story

Jeffrey Epstein details close relationship with Trump in newly released tapes https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...=share_btn_url

[Sylvanfan]

I wonder how many Republican voters who cast early votes were wanting a mulligan in the past week. Likely not many as it's the toe in the sand types who would tend to vote in advance. But it's been exactly the type of week the Democrats needed as the Trump campaign has really put in the effort to show who they are. If this doesn't make people either not support him or switch votes...I'm sure he'll try to go next level given the chance.

[Senator Clay Davis]

How was this week any worse than a bunch of other weeks? If someone really needed this week to seal the deal on note voting for Trump, then I really don't know what to say.