American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by troutman

Fair points, but the US has only two credible parties. In the Canadian election in 2021, Libs had 33%, Cons 34%, NDP 18%, Bloc 8%, People 5%, Green 2%. A Lib and NDP coalition is 51%.

That assumes all federal Liberals would choose the NDP over the Cons. I doubt that’s the case.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Sadly, this won't hurt Trump's chances at all. Dude is bulletproof when it comes to this stuff. His supporters love the fact that he's a reprehensible scumbag.

Didn't everyone hear?

"Fake News!"

He set that stage almost a decade ago now. He can also call on his buddy Elon to just say "that's clearly an AI created deepfake" and the mouth breathers still using Xitter will believe him.

There could be literal footage of Trump sexually assaulting a child filmed from 3 angles, and it would never in a million years be believed by the MAGAverse.

Hell, even most of the rational people would be asking why it wasn't revealed in 2016, 2020, or even 4 weeks ago. It drops the weekend before the election?

Nothing sus there.

"We don't got him this time...and we never will."

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Agreed. Canada's system feels more broken when the furthest right or left party gets a majority government with 35-40% of the vote.

The most annoying aspect about America's system is that the tiny states get outsized power in both the Senate and Electoral College.

The idea of a Tripe E Senate in Canada has been floated around forever.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

People need to understand why the electoral college came about. It is the same reason that PEI, with a population of less than 180,000, have four MPs. Smaller states were worried that their voice would be drowned out by the big cities, and the same is true today. You think Trump and Harris would be making pit stops at donut shops in small town Wisconsin if the votes in New York, Chicago, and LA actually mattered?

The intent was to give power to small states, but the actual result was to give power to swing states, some of which are small, and some of which are large. Vermont and Wyoming don't matter. Florida and Pennsylvania do. It's an unintended result that's ultimately pretty unfair.

[ResAlien]

Let’s not ignore the 3/5ths compromise and the impact that had on the electoral college. Cmon now

[Vinny01]

4 years ago I quote Facebook because of all the horrible crap I saw some friends and acquaintances post about the election and just wanting to tell them how stupid they are. Instead I closed it all down. About a year later I signed up for Twitter to follow my interests and not so much friends and family. It is utterly impossible to avoid politics on that app and my algorithm is messed up as I have looked at too many of these posts. It is absolutely wild how crazy and dumb Americans are today. I see we are not even referring to Trump supporters as Republicans anymore and they seem to be officially called MAGA now.

Then Biden calls them garbage and they respond by dressing up as garbage like it is some kind of own? This is the golden age of stupidity and so much of this is generated by trolls and many uneducated people who never truly learned to think critically.

I don’t know if my Twitter account will survive the next week as it might have to get shut down

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Not sure why the directly part is key. In a FPTP parliamentary system, votes don’t translate directly to seats. And the leader of the party that wins the most seats has a lot of power - Canadian PMs have far fewer constraints than an American president.

Because voting for a single person directly is inherently different than voting for a local representative. There's a reason that there's basically no equivalent of the US's electoral college (at least in terms of voting in someone who has actual power) anywhere in the world that I'm aware of.

Would it make sense if Canada's MPs were chosen by how many municipalities they won vs. how many votes they get? No, that would be stupid. Can you point to a single other jurisdiction that does things the way the US does (again, excluding ceremonial heads of state)?

It’s pretty clear people only complain about electoral systems when they don’t yield a result they like. The number of Canadians I’ve seen moan about the U.S. electoral system being undemocratic while ignoring the loss of the party that won the popular vote in the last federal election proves that. The Conservatives’ loss is shrugged off with “their support is too concentrated - they should campaign better in the parts of the country where they’re weak.” Not sure why the same advice shouldn’t apply to Democrats.

You've never heard anyone complain about first past the post in Canada? Really?

Regardless, the US system is exceptionally ridiculous because of the scale of it. Legislative systems with 4-5 parties can lead to some disenfranchisement, as we've seen in Canada where a party that wins the popular vote by a percent or two doesn't form government. But Canada has about 120K people per MP; while the US has about 7 million people per Electoral College delegation. Surely you can see how having 50 all-or-nothing binary options in a population of almost 350 million is a lot different than 338 seats in a population of 41 million or so.

There's nothing wrong with forcing regional representation. But the House of Representatives already does that. And then the Senate takes that to an absurd degree. To also force it on the Presidential election is downright ridiculous and leads to a lot of the problems the US has in terms of its governance.

And that doesn't even get into the absurdity of the fact that states seem to legally be able to ignore the actual vote. It's conceivable that a state with Republican legislators could choose to send electors for Trump, or not send electors at all, even if Harris wins the state. The only thing stopping them appears to be a fear of blowback, not any sort of legal reality.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Agreed. Canada's system feels more broken when the furthest right or left party gets a majority government with 35-40% of the vote.

When has the furthest left party in Canada ever had a majority government at the federal level?

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Let’s not ignore the 3/5ths compromise and the impact that had on the electoral college. Cmon now

No kidding.

Straight slaving owning privilege that persists to this day.

What’s clear is that, more than two centuries after it was designed to empower southern whites, the Electoral College continues to do just that. The current system has a distinct, adverse impact on black voters, diluting their political power. Because the concentration of black people is highest in the South, their preferred presidential candidate is virtually assured to lose their home states’ electoral votes. Despite black voting patterns to the contrary, five of the six states whose populations are 25 percent or more black have been reliably red in recent presidential elections. Three of those states have not voted for a Democrat in more than four decades. Under the Electoral College, black votes are submerged. It’s the precise reason for the success of the southern strategy. It’s precisely how, as Buckley might say, the South has prevailed.

Article

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Patek23

LOL Paulie Walnuts is like the Yoho of the Left. Do you even vet what you post aside from falling for what you read immediately? The one links to a guy claiming to be satire and parody. And the other a guy whos bio is "to stop trump at all costs" and might as well be anyone. Hardly something news worthy or "hard hitting". You need to relax man, your getting WAY too caught up and invested in all of this LOL

Are you saying the tapes are fake or that they're not important?

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s pretty clear people only complain about electoral systems when they don’t yield a result they like.

Huh? I've never liked the FPTP system, even though Liberals have won several majority governments in my lifetime. If this was just about wanting my team to win, I'd be loving FPTP.

I could just as easily say that people only defend the current systems when they yield results they like. Such as what's happening in the US, where Republicans are securing presidencies without the popular vote.

The number of Canadians I’ve seen moan about the U.S. electoral system being undemocratic while ignoring the loss of the party that won the popular vote in the last federal election proves that.

We have a parliamentary system, not a president. Give the Conservatives 34% of the seats and see if they can pull together a coalition.

[direwolf]

Three new polls show Harris up in the blue wall of WI (+2), MI (+3), and PA (+2).

From what I can gather, Marist is a highly respected A-rated pollster. Not sure whether this makes any difference with only 4 days to go. We shall see.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/about-the-marist-poll/

The success of the Marist Poll is recognized worldwide by journalists and academics. For its work during the 2016 presidential election, the Marist Poll was rated number one for accuracy by Bloomberg Politics, and along with its battleground state polling partner, NBC News, it received an “A+” rating from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

Dedicated to adhering to the highest standards, and advancing the understanding of public opinion polls, the Marist Poll was accepted as a Charter Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative in 2014.

[cral12]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852315163094827043

[cral12]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852355571145670831

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by cral12

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852315163094827043

Blah that is just locker room talk. nothing will happen...

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Three new polls show Harris up in the blue wall of WI (+2), MI (+3), and PA (+2).

From what I can gather, Marist is a highly respected A-rated pollster. Not sure whether this makes any difference with only 4 days to go. We shall see.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/about-the-marist-poll/

Yes those polls seemed to move many of the forecasts back to just about 50/50.

Close polls don’t necessarily mean a close election of course.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by cral12

https://twitter.com/user/status/1852355571145670831

It's a simple formula. The stupider, crazier and wilder he appears, the more they love him for it. He literally could shoot someone on 5th ave and he wouldn't lose votes.

The media makes money off a tight race.

Voila - thats why they are 'reporting on it'. Meanwhile, they'll report on every tiny gaffe or mistake by Kamala because she's expected to be held to the standards of the politicians of the past.

[rubecube]

Nvm

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Anyone surprised?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1851304485307736553

The bigger issue is the American media's failure to report on this stuff because of how captured and compromised they are.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Not sure if it makes a difference but a lot of the attendees of the Diddler parties endorsing Harris.

Also lol @ calling me a leftist Yoho. What part of the audio was fake ? I didn’t even call it a bombshell or anything.