American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

So what is the real data that you have that is better than polls?

I mean we already have 20% of the vote in

Record turnout for early voting
More Women voting
Democrat registrations higher
High number of first time voters
Late deciders breaking Harris at nearly 60%
More republicans are voting Harris than the other way around (this is an educated guess)
"Will my husband know who I voted for" trending on google searches

On what planet are millions of people saying "nah, lets go Trump" over the last couple weeks

I wouldn't say guaranteed win I just strongly object that anything has turned in Trumps favor over the last couple weeks. What is the point of polls if the margin of error is so great they are basically guaranteed to be right. "election is close" no ####...you have two teams and 95% of people would vote for a bag a #### wearing their jersey.

Trump was accused of sexual assault of a minor tonight and we aren't even talking about it lol

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I mean we already have 20% of the vote in

Record turnout for early voting
More Women voting
Democrat registrations higher
High number of first time voters
Late deciders breaking Harris at nearly 60%
More republicans are voting Harris than the other way around (this is an educated guess)
"Will my husband know who I voted for" trending on google searches

On what planet are millions of people saying "nah, lets go Trump" over the last couple weeks

I wouldn't say guaranteed win I just strongly object that anything has turned in Trumps favor over the last couple weeks. What is the point of polls if the margin of error is so great they are basically guaranteed to be right. "election is close" no ####...you have two teams and 95% of people would vote for a bag a #### wearing their jersey.

Trump was accused of sexual assault of a minor tonight and we aren't even talking about it lol

We don’t know that more women are voting. We know that more women are early voting. Record early voting is a function of early voting being more accessible and more known. And it’s still not know whether high early voting numbers just canabalize election day turnout or enhance turnout.

If the above items are determative and was statistically significant there would be modelers using those values as part of the fundementals type analysis. These indicators are not better than polling.

If you look at things like polls and polymarket you accept that there is noise. Did Harris gain 5% likelihood to win today? No it’s just noise.

I disagree with you that polls don’t tell us anything. They told us Biden was a prohibitive favourite, that Hillary has a 1/4 chance of loosing, that Obama was going to win both.

Without polling your prior of teams sports it’s 50/50 would have been wrong in every election this cycle.

Trump being accused of sexual assault is more common than polling updates.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

We don’t know that more women are voting. We know that more women are early voting. Record early voting is a function of early voting being more accessible and more known. And it’s still not know whether high early voting numbers just canabalize election day turnout or enhance turnout.

If the above items are determative and was statistically significant there would be modelers using those values as part of the fundementals type analysis. These indicators are not better than polling.

If you look at things like polls and polymarket you accept that there is noise. Did Harris gain 5% likelihood to win today? No it’s just noise.

I disagree with you that polls don’t tell us anything. They told us Biden was a prohibitive favourite, that Hillary has a 1/4 chance of loosing, that Obama was going to win both.

Without polling your prior of teams sports it’s 50/50 would have been wrong in every election this cycle.

Trump being accused of sexual assault is more common than polling updates.

Well with more early voting you have shorter lines on election day which will promote higher turnout. Its also a guaranteed vote vs. sickness, weather, car breaking down ect. Turnout will be high.

I mean if your argument is "either side might win its 50/50" there is not much of a debate to be had. I think Trumps surge is BS and I think we will see as much in 2 weeks.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Well with more early voting you have shorter lines on election day which will promote higher turnout. Its also a guaranteed vote vs. sickness, weather, car breaking down ect. Turnout will be high.

That sentiment is not currently backed up by data

Here’s a good discussion on the affects

https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-e...can-elections/

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

That sentiment is not currently backed up by data

Here’s a good discussion on the affects

https://www.niskanencenter.org/how-e...can-elections/

"good discussion" that has yet to be proven...like I keep saying lets see.

Record turnout incoming IMO

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

"good discussion" that has yet to be proven...like I keep saying lets see.

Record turnout incoming IMO

There is a difference between single datapoints and trends. Making a prediction and being right doesn’t mean your prediction was correct at the time you made it. It may means you just got lucky.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

There is a difference between single datapoints and trends. Making a prediction and being right doesn’t mean your prediction was correct at the time you made it. It may means you just got lucky.

what good is any of this information if not used to make a prediction though


Trump may win or lose
Turnout may be record high or not

Great, I guess we have nothing more to discuss

[HOOT]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Has anyone here honestly stood at the booth thinking about their decision? I assume nearly 100% of people who put in the effort to vote only do so because they know who they’re voting for.

My wife votes every election and she will Google the candidates while she’s in the booth.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

what good is any of this information if not used to make a prediction though

Trump may win or lose
Turnout may be record high or not

Great, I guess we have nothing more to discuss

I’m not objecting to you making a prediction. I’m objecting to you saying you are using “real data” to make better predictions and that if Kamala wins that justifies your positions today retroactively.

Data doesn’t exist right now to reliably predict this election. Uncertainty is okay.

I think the whole discussion on if early voting favours Dems or Republicans is interesting. It just takes 20 years to know if it might make a difference.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m not objecting to you making a prediction. I’m objecting to you saying you are using “real data” to make better predictions and that if Kamala wins that justifies your positions today retroactively.

Data doesn’t exist right now to reliably predict this election. Uncertainty is okay.

I think the whole discussion on if early voting favours Dems or Republicans is interesting. It just takes 20 years to know if it might make a difference.

lol okay guy, it takes two weeks to figure it out when we see the results

[Itse]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol okay guy, it takes two weeks to figure it out when we see the results

It takes two weeks to know if there's a correlation this year.

It takes much longer to know if this correlation is strong enough to have predictive value

As for polls becoming more even, while it might be real movement, it could also be just the results of polling fatigue. 538 mentioned weeks ago that response rates to polls are really low and have been dropping as we get closer to the election. (This obviously isn't somethint pollsters are eager to talk about, since they get paid to do those polls, no matter the response rates.)

I have no idea how much low response rates affect the polls, but I would imagine that the fewer respondees there are, the more likely it is that there are significant hidden differences between people who answer polls and voters in general.

Since the doesn't-answer-to-pollsters demographic is currently almost all the voters (latest number I heard was 97% and it's likely dropped further since that), they don't have to differ much from the will-answer-to-pollsters demographic to make the polls borderline meaningless.

Which is why I think it's extremely valid to look at other data and consider it as good or better evidence.

(It is obviously possible to still have good polls with low response rates. My point is mostly that really it's impossible to know. To me this feels like an election where the polls could be way off, but that's just vibes.)

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol okay guy, it takes two weeks to figure it out when we see the results

So what information will you use to show that increased turnout as measured by mail in ballots or early voting is beneficial for democrats?

[CliffFletcher]

Worthwhile discussion on why this race (like other recent presidential elections) has been so close.

https://www.persuasion.community/p/w...-so-damn-close

Neither party is able to a build a broad coalition of the sort that has historically been the norm in U.S. politics, back when presidents would typically win elections with 55-60 per cent of the vote.

And it’s not because the electorate are locked into partisanship - a large number are casting ballots for a different party than they did 10-15 years ago.

Executive summary of the Politics Without Winners study:

https://www.aei.org/research-product...ity-coalition/

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by HOOT

My wife votes every election and she will Google the candidates while she’s in the booth.

Is that allowed? I thought phones during the test was cheating??

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

So what information will you use to show that increased turnout as measured by mail in ballots or early voting is beneficial for democrats?

Traditionally it has been a Democrat stronghold and early ballots have always skewed in favor of the Dems over the GOP. This cycle is very different. Republicans have overwhelmingly gone to the polls early this year and taken advantage of the early ballot or casting absentee ballots. The data point that dino7 is pointing to is reliant on traditional data, not what appears to be happening right now. Here's an article on what is happening in Virginia.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...024-rcna175419

The same thing is happening across the country. The edge that Dems had in early voting has disappeared.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/polit...ers/index.html

Things that should be encouraging for Democrats is women have gone to the polls early and the female vote is up. In a country where there is outrage over reproductive rights, this could spell good things for the Democrats. Things that should worry Democrats is the youth vote is not happening. Getting the young to the polls is crucial for a defeat of Trumpism and that youth vote has not been evident in early voting. The only hope is a blue wave of young voters on election day, and that does not appear to be in the works. The enthusiasm on campuses is not high this cycle.

It's going to be a close election but will come down to the broken electoral college. I still think it will be Trump with 302 EC votes, and a win by under 100,000 total votes, but a loss in the popular vote by 6-7 million votes. American democracy at its finest.

[Wastedyouth]

I go on a two minute diatribe and cry every time I vote Pepsi.

Maybe you aren't invested enough?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Is that allowed? I thought phones during the test was cheating??

Cellphones are allowed in polling places in most states, but not allowed to be used. This varies across the country. Because of all the ballot initiatives and the complexity of the ballot there are usually books delivered explaining the positions of the candidates and what the ballot initiatives mean. So, these "tests" are now open book, but you're still not allowed to bring your calculator into class.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by GGG

There is a difference between single datapoints and trends. Making a prediction and being right doesn’t mean your prediction was correct at the time you made it. It may means you just got lucky.

Nah. It means I'm either right, or wrong. Not lucky.
So either I'm correct, and the EC ultimately isn't close with Harris winn8ng, or I'm wrong and it is close (or Trump wins).
I'm neither lucky or unlucky, just right or wrong.

[Josh]

I had both my wife's and my ballot returned within an hour of receiving it.

Two ex-republicans that voted blue all the way down the ballot.

[ResAlien]

Once again I didn’t vote and I never will. Just ripping along with whatever ride the Americans chose to take me on, wheeeeee