American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

We will see who realizes what in a couple weeks

Realizes what the election is in toss up territory. It’s down to turn out and ground game and potential election day shinanigans. Anyone making a prediction outside of to close to call isn’t bright.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don’t think this happens. Marginal voters stay home.

Eh, I think there will be cases of this.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

MegaErtz a "far left leaning Democrat".

Your post history indicates significantly otherwise.

Can you give me an example? I'm genuinely curious.

[PepsiFree]

Voting isn’t like a television show where the people enter the booth, go on some monologue about the pros and cons and then finally, tearfully, cast their vote.

Has anyone here honestly stood at the booth thinking about their decision? I assume nearly 100% of people who put in the effort to vote only do so because they know who they’re voting for.

[Sultan]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

I've been following the election betting odds very closely since about 2003. They've been bang on every time but once (2016), far more accurate than the polls. Hillary Clinton was about -900 to win about a week before the election in 2016.

I'm not saying that the odds will accurately predict the winner, but they are a heck of a lot more accurate than any poll.

And no, you can't parlay the betting election markets. Parlays are for suckers.

I'm a very far left leaning Democrat and voted for Harris myself, but I could see the odds starting to move in Trump direction a few weeks ago and placed a large bet on him to win. The odds have moved so far in his direction now that I could take a position on Harris to win and lock in some guaranteed profit. I'm anticipating Trump becoming a much larger favourite, and the price on Harris to win continuing to lengthen.

Not a chance are you far left leaning lol. Enough with that. Is this like the AI, Black for Trump meme? Account hacked?

Obama gave a great speech yesterday, Eminem came out in Detroit. Worth the watch.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Sultan

Not a chance are you far left leaning lol. Enough with that. Is this like the AI, Black for Trump meme? Account hacked?

Obama gave a great speech yesterday, Eminem came out in Detroit. Worth the watch.

I'll give it a watch, thanks. Genuinely befuddled why anyone would think I'm a right winger.

[burn_this_city]

People have memory holed that on election night last cycle it was reasonably obvious Biden was going to win because of Pennsylvania, the odds for Trump still ramped up because dumb money flooded the betting sites.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

Realizes what the election is in toss up territory. It’s down to turn out and ground game and potential election day shinanigans. Anyone making a prediction outside of to close to call isn’t bright.

All real data favors Harris
Manipulated polls and betting odds lean Trump

I am confident in saying the recent Trump bump is BS

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

People have memory holed that on election night last cycle it was reasonably obvious Biden was going to win because of Pennsylvania, the odds for Trump still ramped up because dumb money flooded the betting sites.

I got way too good of odds for Biden winning the popular vote lol. Free money

[nfotiu]

Most swing states show a big edge in polling for the Democrat in the senate, but a much smaller lead for Harris or a lead for Trump.

I'm curious how that actually plays out when people vote. Are there really going to be that many split tickets or are they going to flip one of their votes?

I'm also curious who these D Senate/Trump voters are? I know a lot of real life people and republican politicians who'd at least consider voting for Harris and all the Republican candidates, but I've never met one who'd vote for Democrat candidates and Trump.

[Sultan]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

I'll give it a watch, thanks. Genuinely befuddled why anyone would think I'm a right winger.

I didn't mean to say you were tea party or far right wing, just definitely not far left leaning. Maybe it is the definition, what is far left to you?

I did think you were more ucp then ndp, in Alberta, which is very much right wing, but i could be wrong. I am curious to what anyone really thinks what far left is now though, without the one meme.


In my experience, people who say woke, or far left, cannot really describe it. Equality is not woke in any way or sense of the word. Woke was from maybe 50 years ago, before when rights for equality were being fought for. Now it's for conspiracy theory people and people who are are far right and cannot explain their position or the definition. That is another good YouTube about history.

Detroit Rally - I liked the speech, though I like them both and i would vote Harris. If you have a suggestion, I will watch one in trade.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dino7c

All real data favors Harris
Manipulated polls and betting odds lean Trump

I am confident in saying the recent Trump bump is BS

It's all being set up so he can cry foul on election day. Harris is going to win the election handily and the Trump team knows it, their only path to victory is to skew the polling and then use that data as fuel to say the election was stolen. Does Donald Trump want Americans to vote for him? Of course he does, it strokes his ego but his end game plan does not hinge on actually winning the election by who the people vote for. Here is what I would bet anything is going to happen. the red votes will get published first, the infamous red mirage we saw last time. Trump will declare victory early on election day. As more mail in ballots and other ballots start drastically turning the election in favour of Harris he is going to cry they are stealing the election again. He is going to refuse defeat and him and Vance will insist there was voter fraud and they won. Then they are going to do everything in their power to tie everything up legally or many other shenanigans to overturn the results. Will it work? I don't think so but it's going to be a huge mess for our neighbors down south, it's going to get really crazy!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

All real data favors Harris
Manipulated polls and betting odds lean Trump

I am confident in saying the recent Trump bump is BS

What real data are you referring to?

Are you calling 538 manipulated?

Prior to the recent Trump bump the race was still roughly 50/50. So I agree with your assessment that the Trump bump is mostly BS. It’s been tied since Kamala entered the race.

[Sultan]

Originally Posted by GGG

What real data are you referring to?

Are you calling 538 manipulated?

Prior to the recent Trump bump the race was still roughly 50/50. So I agree with your assessment that the Trump bump is mostly BS. It’s been tied since Kamala entered the race.

All polling is manipulated. 538 does not have the same people.


2 years ago there was all the talk about the red wave and they lost more than gained.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Sultan

I didn't mean to say you were tea party or far right wing, just definitely not far left leaning. Maybe it is the definition, what is far left to you?

I did think you were more ucp then ndp, in Alberta, which is very much right wing, but i could be wrong. I am curious to what anyone really thinks what far left is now though, without the one meme.


In my experience, people who say woke, or far left, cannot really describe it. Equality is not woke in any way or sense of the word. Woke was from maybe 50 years ago, before when rights for equality were being fought for. Now it's for conspiracy theory people and people who are are far right and cannot explain their position or the definition. That is another good YouTube about history.

Detroit Rally - I liked the speech, though I like them both and i would vote Harris. If you have a suggestion, I will watch one in trade.

To me, being on the far left of the Democratic Party means being for subsidized education, subsidized health care, and asking those that are successful enough contribute more in taxes to make large government programs possible. There are only two big tents parties in America, and I decided long ago that I'd be with the party that are more for the people than corporations.

As for my post history - I've advocated for the quick release of body camera footage when the Calgary Police killed a man about a month ago. I'm strongly against any government subsidies for the Flames to get a new arena paid for by people like me who don't attend events there more than once a year. I also think the closed shop system of the CHL and NHL is crazy, and goes against everything the free movement of labour means, especially the draft system.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

People have memory holed that on election night last cycle it was reasonably obvious Biden was going to win because of Pennsylvania, the odds for Trump still ramped up because dumb money flooded the betting sites.

But one could look at the disparity between the betting sites and the polling aggregators and moddlers.

The Nate Silver model (538) had a 90% chance of Biden winning and Biden +7 polling average nationally. Polymarket was 64/36 favouring biden and was free money.

Now you have polymarket at 60/40 trump and 538 (not silver) at 51/49

So I’d argue as volume of betting increases the market is becoming a more accurate poll.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Sultan

All polling is manipulated. 538 does not have the same people.

2 years ago there was all the talk about the red wave and they lost more than gained.

I was using 538 because Dino thinks Silvers compromised because he has an interest in poly market. I would posit that all polling is biased rather than manipulated. I was also more interested in the real data that Dino was referring to and clarifying what he meant by manipulated.

Your recollection of the 2022 midterms and polling is incorrect

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ling-accuracy/

Sentiment certainly was not good for democrats which is different from the polling data.

[dino7c]

Pollsters give themselves such a margin of error it renders them pointless.

Flames will win tomorrow with a margin of error of 3 goals...see I am right 95% of the time!

Its team sports with 2 teams...of course its "close"

[Senator Clay Davis]

You know margin of error is just a formula, right? It's not like they just say "Well, lets make the MOE +/- 4.5% because that'll cover us in case it's wrong".

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Pollsters give themselves such a margin of error it renders them pointless.

Flames will win tomorrow with a margin of error of 3 goals...see I am right 95% of the time!

Its team sports with 2 teams...of course its "close"

So what is the real data that you have that is better than polls?