[News] With the 174th OA pick the Flames select C Rory Kerins

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Wrong.

Ha ha
Why not?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Ha ha
Why not?

Because the present value of that $80 million still counts against the cap, as calculated for the years in which it is earned and then averaged over the life of the contract. A dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar now, and if that dollar were paid today, it could earn interest for the player over the whole term of the contract. Any payment deferred until after the contract ends is discounted at a rate that is tied to current benchmark interest rates. (It used to be LIBOR, but that no longer exists; I don't know what benchmarks they use now.)

At the moment, the NHL calculates the present value of a future payment at a discount rate of 5.4689%. (This is the rate used on the Seth Jarvis contract.)

Seth Jarvis deferred about $11 million in total on his current contract (bonuses from years 1 and 3 out of 8, so quite a long-term deferment), and this lowered the cap hit from $7.9 million to about $7.4 million. Jaccob Slavin deferred his signing bonus for year 7 until year 9, which only lowered the cap hit by about $65,000 – less than 2%.

If you pay a player $88 million over 11 years, but defer all but $1 million per year until the 9th year, the cap hit goes down to $8,928,067 – not $1 million. And the player can't touch the money in the meantime, which makes him less likely to accept the deal.

Here's the handy-dandy calculator that provided that number:

https://puckpedia.com/deferred

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Because the present value of that $80 million still counts against the cap, as calculated for the years in which it is earned and then averaged over the life of the contract. A dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar now, and if that dollar were paid today, it could earn interest for the player over the whole term of the contract. Any payment deferred until after the contract ends is discounted at a rate that is tied to current benchmark interest rates. (It used to be LIBOR, but that no longer exists; I don't know what benchmarks they use now.)

At the moment, the NHL calculates the present value of a future payment at a discount rate of 5.4689%. (This is the rate used on the Seth Jarvis contract.)

Seth Jarvis deferred about $11 million in total on his current contract (bonuses from years 1 and 3 out of 8, so quite a long-term deferment), and this lowered the cap hit from $7.9 million to about $7.4 million. Jaccob Slavin deferred his signing bonus for year 7 until year 9, which only lowered the cap hit by about $65,000 – less than 2%.

If you pay a player $88 million over 11 years, but defer all but $1 million per year until the 9th year, the cap hit goes down to $8,928,067 – not $1 million. And the player can't touch the money in the meantime, which makes him less likely to accept the deal.

Here's the handy-dandy calculator that provided that number:

https://puckpedia.com/deferred

Meaningless language
Fact remains that money will be paid beyond the 8 year max and it won’t factor in the AAV
that’s an accurate statement
Anything else is semantics, it’s only a matter of time
But
That’s another conversation for another day

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Meaningless language

Just because you don't understand it, doesn't make it meaningless.

Fact remains that money will be paid beyond the 8 year max and it won’t factor in the AAV

That is completely incorrect, as you would know if you bothered clicking the link I gave you.

that’s an accurate statement

No, it's a falsehood that you pulled out of your arse. I gave you an accurate statement, down to the last dollar.

Anything else is semantics, it’s only a matter of time
But
That’s another conversation for another day

In other words, you're like the pigeon playing chess. You knocked over the pieces, crapped on the board, and are now strutting around claiming victory.

How does it feel to be a pigeon?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

https://ontariohockeyleague.com/vide...er-of-the-week

He's a Greyhound which means his character is suspect...at best.

[Reggie Dunlop]

When does he get put on waivers?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

At no point in Kerins career so far has he ever been someone that can’t produce. Why the org has been treating him as an afterthought has been baffling. Good to see the hot start, while he’ll definitely cool off maybe the team could start taking him a bit more seriously.

You must be in the meetings!

I'm pretty sure they're aware of what Kerins is doing this season, how he played last year, and what he has to work on.

To assume he's an afterthought is a pretty big reach.

I mean he finished 25th in our prospect rankings, it's not like he was high on the rabid fan radar.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Just because you don't understand it, doesn't make it meaningless.

That is completely incorrect......


You knocked over the pieces, crapped on the board, and are now strutting around claiming victory.

How does it feel to be a pigeon?

Oh boy Jay (notice how I didn’t resort to pre adolescent name calling there?), once again (actually twice in one swoop) you’ve demonstrated your standard position on a subject.

---------------------> THE POINT






You

[Ozy_Flame]

I ####ing love the fact that a 6th rounder from way back in 2020 is still slogging it out and making a case to stay in the picture. Good for him, prove the doubters wrong, and get that bag you're obviously working your butt off for.

[Calgary4LIfe]

If he keeps this up, Conroy will have to promote him rather than trade for another C.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You must be in the meetings!

I'm pretty sure they're aware of what Kerins is doing this season, how he played last year, and what he has to work on.

To assume he's an afterthought is a pretty big reach.

I mean he finished 25th in our prospect rankings, it's not like he was high on the rabid fan radar.

Flames management takes their cues from this board. We thought he was an afterthought so they did, too.

[Fire]

How is Kerins skating and speed? Just wondering if his game can translate to the NHL or if he's another Phillips.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

At no point in Kerins career so far has he ever been someone that can’t produce. Why the org has been treating him as an afterthought has been baffling. Good to see the hot start, while he’ll definitely cool off maybe the team could start taking him a bit more seriously.

He has had one productive year. One.

He was just under a point per game in the OHL in his draft year (pretty pedestrian).

His one productive season (18 pts in the OHL) was his D+2 year.

He spent a year in the ECHL

He had 32 pts in 54 games with the Wranglers last year - pretty pedestrian.

What were you seeing that everyone else missed?

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Fire

How is Kerins skating and speed? Just wondering if his game can translate to the NHL or if he's another Phillips.

Well he's 1/3 larger so he can't be a Phillips.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Kerins is projected to score 101 goals for the Wranglers this year!

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Oh boy Jay (notice how I didn’t resort to pre adolescent name calling there?), once again (actually twice in one swoop) you’ve demonstrated your standard position on a subject.

I demonstrated that you were wrong about the facts.

The point you were making is that bonuses paid after the end of a contract don't count towards the cap. That point is utterly, laughably wrong. Instead of admitting you were wrong, you are now pretending that there is some other point that I missed, and that there is some ‘standard position’ I was arguing instead of presenting the facts.

Get over yourself and learn something for a change.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He has had one productive year. One.

He was just under a point per game in the OHL in his draft year (pretty pedestrian).

His one productive season (18 pts in the OHL) was his D+2 year.

He spent a year in the ECHL

He had 32 pts in 54 games with the Wranglers last year - pretty pedestrian.

What were you seeing that everyone else missed?

Not sure I'd agree, generally he's been able to put up points when given the opportunity.

Draft: He was right around P/GP. Generally that means you're drafted in the 2nd to 4th round. (14th in OHL in P/GP for U-18 skaters).

Draft+1 he didn't play because of COVID - so that wasn't really an issue you can fault him for.

Draft+2 he had amazing production in the OHL (3rd in OHL P/GP among U-20 skaters)

Draft+3 he was PPG in the ECHL...which you don't want him playing a full season in the ECHL, but the production was still good (4th in ECHL in P/GP for U-22 forwards)

Draft+4 he had 32 points in 54 AHL games...which when you consider it was his rookie AHL season, he didn't get much PP time, and he was playing 4th line it's actually pretty good production. (50th in U-22 production in AHL)

So he has produced at pretty much every level he played at before last season, and if you consider his age, and usage last year at the AHL level being around .6 P/GP that's actually pretty good.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I demonstrated that you were wrong about the facts.

The point you were making is that bonuses paid after the end of a contract don't count towards the cap. That point is utterly, laughably wrong. Instead of admitting you were wrong, you are now pretending that there is some other point that I missed, and that there is some ‘standard position’ I was arguing instead of presenting the facts.

Get over yourself and learn something for a change.

You might want to re-read the original post from them - pretty sure it was simply a joke

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Not sure I'd agree, generally he's been able to put up points when given the opportunity.

Draft: He was right around P/GP. Generally that means you're drafted in the 2nd to 4th round. (14th in OHL in P/GP for U-18 skaters).

Draft+1 he didn't play because of COVID - so that wasn't really an issue you can fault him for.

Draft+2 he had amazing production in the OHL (3rd in OHL P/GP among U-20 skaters)

Draft+3 he was PPG in the ECHL...which you don't want him playing a full season in the ECHL, but the production was still good (4th in ECHL in P/GP for U-22 forwards)

Draft+4 he had 32 points in 54 AHL games...which when you consider it was his rookie AHL season, he didn't get much PP time, and he was playing 4th line it's actually pretty good production. (50th in U-22 production in AHL)

So he has produced at pretty much every level he played at before last season, and if you consider his age, and usage last year at the AHL level being around .6 P/GP that's actually pretty good.

Maybe its semantics, but other than the D+2 year, I don't see any of those numbers as 'productive'. Okay numbers, sure. And continued progression, yes. But nothing there that says: why isn't this guy getting more attention? Seems to me he's getting getting exactly the attention he deserves, and has steadily moved from the OHL to the ECHL to the AHL. Where is the mismanagement or lack of attention?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Maybe its semantics, but other than the D+2 year, I don't see any of those numbers as 'productive'. Okay numbers, sure. And continued progression, yes. But nothing there that says: why isn't this guy getting more attention? Seems to me he's getting getting exactly the attention he deserves, and has steadily moved from the OHL to the ECHL to the AHL. Where is the mismanagement or lack of attention?

I did have some questions around how he never seemed to get off the 4th line last year, especially with the lack of young center prospects in the org.

But think there were some concerns around his fitness and his defensive play from the organization last year.

I will give the Wranglers organization a lot of leeway though on this - with some of the mid-round prospects they have really worked them into the lineup cautiously and tried to "build them up" over time, and sounds like the organization gives them very clear direction on where and what they need to improve on.

And think we've seen guys like Stromgren and Kerins advance in their development because of that.