American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[puffnstuff]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I love that degenerate gamblers have now turned to politics to get their fix. Curious whats next. Reality TV? Beauty pageants?

WWE wrestling...based on the manipulations would be my bet

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I love that degenerate gamblers have now turned to politics to get their fix. Curious whats next. Reality TV? Beauty pageants?

I have $10 bucks on Melina and Trump getting a divorce in 2025.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I have $10 bucks on Melina and Trump getting a divorce in 2025.

Nah, she's smarter than that, she's holding out for the fat **** to keel over and die, that's where the real moneys at

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1846767959965876697

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

+130 really aren't great odds though, value really isn't there. Rather throw money on the Saints tonight at +130. Value would probably be there when we get over +180.

If she has a 50% chance of winning you have a $15 dollar profit for each $100 bet. Betting on the saints given it’s a much more mature market gives you a 5-10% EV loss unless you are applying better statistical models than the betting public. Even good sports gamblers make 2-3% so a 15% edge is huge.

[Delthefunky]

Ugh, Silver's update today has trump ahead for first time in a month.

[Strange Brew]

It's 50/50. But he is definitely trending up.

Is Silver's model better than 538? They have it at 50/50 too so not much different I guess.

[rubecube]

What will the post-mortem of a Harris loss look like. Guessing it's the usual combination of:

- blaming progressives
- election interference
- everyone is racist

Would be nice if they actually did some self-reflection, but I have a hard time believing that'll happen based on previous election losses for the Dems.

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's 50/50. But he is definitely trending up.

Is Silver's model better than 538? They have it at 50/50 too so not much different I guess.

Absolutely mind bottling. If he actually wins thing again my faith in humanity will be finished off for good.

[dino7c]

You guys really think millions of people have changed their minds on Trump in the last couple weeks. Not saying he wont win but these polls are nonsense

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by rubecube

What will the post-mortem of a Harris loss look like. Guessing it's the usual combination of:

- blaming progressives
- election interference
- everyone is racist

Would be nice if they actually did some self-reflection, but I have a hard time believing that'll happen based on previous election losses for the Dems.

phhhhfffttt "Sorry, you have to vote for them or its your fault" There are no dealbreakers.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You guys really think millions of people have changed their minds on Trump in the last couple weeks. Not saying he wont win but these polls are nonsense

Trump winning doesn't require millions of people to change their minds. He needs a couple thousand in a few states to do so and he wins. Worth remembering that Harris has been behind pretty much since she joined, not as bad as Biden, but still behind. She jumped into a "lead" that was well within the margin of error for about a month, and now it's reverting back the state the race has been pretty much since the start of the year: Trump is winning.

[calumniate]

For you undecided americans out there: donald trump is no good

[Paulie Walnuts]

The annoying thing with some of these Republicans against Trump they won't say they are voting for Harris. All they can muster is we won't be voting for Trump. So, who you got Jill Stein? Man or Woman up like Kinzinger and Duncan and throw your suppourt behind Harris.

Even the Hispanics last night some of them wouldn't say they will vote Harris, just I won't vote Trump.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Because they support Trump's policies at a near 100% rate, the tariffs are the only major divergence. They just hate him, want to save democracy blah blah blah.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Yeah, I think about 10% of that population even understand what tariffs are.

I am going to tax China 2000% to large cheers. Lmao he is going to bankrupt you all if he does that but clap away idiots.

[Fuzz]

People on Reddit are looking into the Polymarket thing, it's interesting. Seems one big buyer has moved it the most.


https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskS...markets_trump/


This is linked in the thread, but worth me reposting(nitter link), he actually tried to track down the whale and may have made contact. It's all...weird. But it's enough to make me say that the Polymarket data has zero reflection of voter intent.



https://nitter.privacydev.net/Domahh...97997507092901

[Coach]

I don't think betting odds are an indicator of how people will vote at all. People will bet on an event for a variety of reasons that don't include what you "want" to happen. There's lots of people who live in places that are mostly decided regardless of how they vote, so betting on an outcome they may not vote for themselves is entirely possible.

We can even see in this thread people who are progressives who think Trump will still win. So they might vote for Harris but put $100 on Trump.

Again, only one poll matters and it happens in a few weeks, I don't know why anyone would pay attention to anything else.

a 100% increase in early voting in Georgia is a higher indicator than any poll possible IMO.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Coach

Again, only one poll matters and it happens in a few weeks, I don't know why anyone would pay attention to anything else.

Cause we're bored lol. But in somewhat seriousness this is kind of like saying we shouldn't pay attention to regular season sports cause only the postseason matters. Functionally true, but the regular season offers clues as to how the postseason could go. Betting markets, polling models, they are just part of the dialogue. So are early voting numbers. Sure, you might think that benefits the Dems, but it's effectively an incumbent election and high turnout is usually bad for the incumbent (Harris, in this case). So without knowing for sure the vote breakdown, it's all guesswork on what that means too.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Is Silver's model better than 538? They have it at 50/50 too so not much different I guess.

Just checked 538 and they have Harris in the lead, but not by much.