American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[KelVarnsen]

Can't we just duct tape Elon to a rocket and launch it?

[calumniate]

rocketmann

[Paulie Walnuts]

Trump was asked to come on Call Her Daddy but didn't respond or declined. Seems typical of him.

Harris is on Howard Stern tomorrow.

She is really tip toeing the line right now.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Yeah, Elon, the thing you have to remember about gambling, is that the house never wins.

People with money cover the same idiot ratio as people without money, with just fewer practical skills.

You last sentence is the assumption that leads one to believe that a betting market is comparable to polling. If the money weighted average of people on poly market is representative of the voting population then it’s a good poll.

But also if the combined opinion of people of what will happen is representative of what will actually happen then poly market acts as a good poll.

Essentially the question on whether poly market is an accurate poll is the same question as how many extra points do the cowboys get as a public team? There should still be Sharp money out there to counter balance the rubes to some degree to make the market reasonably predictive.

Is it better than polling that just says this election is about 50/50? Probably not because the election is so close. Is it a good predictor of odds? Probably as reasonable as any other model of crowd sourced opinions..

The difference between Polymarkets 45/55 and 538s 55/45 is meaningless. Those are the same number.

[Fuzz]

I can't imagine the demographics of Polymarket betters comes anywhere close to representing the population in general, so it's about as useful as Musk's Xitter polls. Probably even less so.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I can't imagine the demographics of Polymarket betters comes anywhere close to representing the population in general, so it's about as useful as Musk's Xitter polls. Probably even less so.

uneducated white males are the #1 gambling demographic

sound familiar?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Elons mom telling people to commit election fraud as well.

What a loser family.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Elons mom telling people to commit election fraud as well.

What a loser family.

Except for Musk’s daughter.

[activeStick]

Andrea Mitchell of NBC was talking about some challenges that Harris is having with the male vote.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1842934279539704212

[Dion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1842911948708442462

[direwolf]

A female politician has a problem with male voters? I’m shocked I tell you. Shocked!

[puffnstuff]

Polls kinda suck and I dont really post them but one i did see was a NPR & somebody poll from last week, Harris leads with women 65 to 35

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Polls kinda suck and I dont really post them but one i did see was a NPR & somebody poll from last week, Harris leads with women 65 to 35

If Harris ends up winning, it’s gonna be women and young voters 18-35 that will get her there. It’s all about getting out the vote at this point.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Trump was asked to come on Call Her Daddy but didn't respond or declined. Seems typical of him.

Harris is on Howard Stern tomorrow.

She is really tip toeing the line right now.

I don't see how she's "tip toeing a line"?

Hitting the podcasts seems smart to me. I heard her on All the Smoke, which is an NBA podcast. Good way to reach young men I would imagine, especially black men. She was pretty good in it too. Howard Stern is a way to reach white men.

Podcasts seem like an underutilized format for campaigning. Good way to reach a specific demographic if you can find the right podcast, and you probably reach a lot of people that are otherwise hard to reach.

In this election, Harris kind of just being normal in these more casual shows probably helps make her stand out from the freak show that is The Donald. There's probably not much risk of her accidentally saying something "incriminating" either, with her lawyer experience.

[ResAlien]

Tip toeing what line? I legit have no clue what that poster is insinuating

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'm guessing it's the "cringe/embarrassing" line. Or something like that.

[Paulie Walnuts]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1843415687114699150

What an embarrassment

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't see how she's "tip toeing a line"?

Hitting the podcasts seems smart to me. I heard her on All the Smoke, which is an NBA podcast. Good way to reach young men I would imagine, especially black men. She was pretty good in it too. Howard Stern is a way to reach white men.

Podcasts seem like an underutilized format for campaigning. Good way to reach a specific demographic if you can find the right podcast, and you probably reach a lot of people that are otherwise hard to reach.

In this election, Harris kind of just being normal in these more casual shows probably helps make her stand out from the freak show that is The Donald. There's probably not much risk of her accidentally saying something "incriminating" either, with her lawyer experience.

Call her daddy is pretty much a podcast on blowjobs and creampies. The episode before Harris was called blowjobs and hall passes.

I haven’t paid attention to Howard stern but he’s probably no better than that.

Podcasts are fine, but maybe pick some that are better.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Call her daddy is pretty much a podcast on blowjobs and creampies. The episode before Harris was called blowjobs and hall passes.

I haven’t paid attention to Howard stern but he’s probably no better than that.

Podcasts are fine, but maybe pick some that are better.

Stern is trying to come across as a serious interviewer these days. Gone are the Sybian rides and strippers having blue cheese put in their asscrack for an idiot to consume. He's also trying to pretend he never wore blackface or made homophobic jokes. It's a weird timeline when a presidential candidate wants to go on the show.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I can't imagine the demographics of Polymarket betters comes anywhere close to representing the population in general, so it's about as useful as Musk's Xitter polls. Probably even less so.

Originally Posted by dino7c

uneducated white males are the #1 gambling demographic

sound familiar?

It doesn’t have to be the same demographic.

If you believe that elections are predictable

And
You believe there are intelligent gamblers trying to make money of the election

Then polymarket will show an accuracy within the Vig of the system.

It comes down to how efficient of a market is political betting. If you are confident in another forecast you should be betting against the poly market average which will drive the price toward the better forecast. This keeps the poly market average within the uncertainty of the outcome.

This is demonstrated by polymarket and 538 and pretty much all the models carrying the same position. The race is more or less a coin flip.