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Old 09-17-2024, 04:36 PM   #101
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The league is a lot better, and we added 2 teams both of whom are likely to be better than us this season.

14/15 was pretty much a fluke season, with a lot of comeback wins, and terrible analytics. Also they had Johnny and Monny.

I think people underestimate how bad our backend is.
2 more teams means the talent is more watered down if anything, but the whole thing is in the NHL teams can have terrible analytics and fluke their way into a better than expected season.

It was a fluke in 14-15 with what I'd argue was a worse roster. There is nothing saying we can't have a fluke this season, especially in our division.

Vancouver, Edmonton, Vegas, and LA should be good. But if one of those teams has a poor season and ends up missing the playoffs it wouldn't be a surprise to me.

Seattle, San Jose, and Anaheim are probably bad still. Not a huge fan of Seattles offseason, and San Jose and Anaheim will be better than last year but it remains to be seen by how much.

Nobody would have predicted that 14-15 team would sneak into the playoffs ahead of the defending stanley cup champions from the year prior.

If this team was playing in the Atlantic or Metro then I'd been more bullish on guaranteeing a bottom 5 finish.

But they will have winnable games against Anaheim, San Jose, and Seattle in the division that might actually help inflate the record a bit.

In terms of the defense Weegar, Andersson, Bahl, Bean, Miromanov, Pachal isn't all that different than Giordano, Wideman, Brodie, Russell, Smid, Engelland IMO.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 09-17-2024 at 04:38 PM.
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Old 09-17-2024, 04:36 PM   #102
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Man its gonna be annoying when people are complaining about every win
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Old 09-17-2024, 04:39 PM   #103
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Unless the goaltending steals games this team is bottom 5 bad.

The D is atrocious, and the odds that they are as healthy as last (past few actually) seasons is low. Most of their best players are older and are due for some regression

Unless one or two of the kids play at 14/15 Gaudreau and Monny levels and surprise us I would be very surprised if this isnt a bottom 5 team. If they have any injury issues they easily could be bottom 3.
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Old 09-17-2024, 04:40 PM   #104
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Man its gonna be annoying when people are complaining about every win
Trust me it wont be as annoying as having to hear you complain about the complainers 125 times per game in the game thread.
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Old 09-17-2024, 04:42 PM   #105
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Old 09-17-2024, 04:58 PM   #106
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Unless the goaltending steals games this team is bottom 5 bad.

The D is atrocious, and the odds that they are as healthy as last (past few actually) seasons is low. Most of their best players are older and are due for some regression

Unless one or two of the kids play at 13/14 Gaudreau and Monny levels and surprise us I would be very surprised if this isnt a bottom 5 team. If they have any injury issues they easily could be bottom 3.
They SHOULD be bottom 5 bad - but the league is unpredictable.

The best teams in the league have a 55% xGF, the worst teams generally around 45% xGF.

Most games are a toss up and I think people underestimate that.

When I look at the teams who will be competing with the Flames for a top 5 pick there are 4 teams that were worse than the Flames last year that are probably still worse:

Columbus: It's tragic but probably the front runner for 1st overall pick

Anaheim: Still worse than the Flames IMO

Chicago: Outside of Bedard probably still worse but it will be close if he becomes a 100 point star this year.

San Jose: Improved but backend is even worse than Calgary, depends how good Smith/Celebrini/Askarov are from day 1.

Personally I'd rank the Flames right about here in pre-season power rankings but I think it's possible they could pass some of the teams ahead of them.

These teams finished behind the Flames last year but should be better this year but it's close:

Montreal: Lots of potential, should be much improved but very young and play in a tough division.

Ottawa: Lost Tarasenko and Chycrun...added Ullmark...if he doesn't improve their goaltending they could be worse this season.

Utah: Added Sergachev and should be better, but that team could easily finish behind Calgary still.

Seattle: Don't think they improved a whole lot, at the cap, and could easily also be a bottom 5 team.

And I think there are a couple of teams that finished ahead of Calgary that could easily be drafting top 10 this season.

Minnesota: Kaprizov, Faber, Spurgeon, Boldy and a bunch of filler IMO.

Washington: Not really sure what to think about this team.

Detroit: Think they are going to have a rough season.

That right there are the Flames and 11 other teams. I don't think they are a playoff team but much like most of last season they could pick anywhere from 1st OV to 12th OV and it wouldn't surprise me.
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Old 09-17-2024, 05:00 PM   #107
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2 more teams means the talent is more watered down if anything, but the whole thing is in the NHL teams can have terrible analytics and fluke their way into a better than expected season.

It was a fluke in 14-15 with what I'd argue was a worse roster. There is nothing saying we can't have a fluke this season, especially in our division.

Vancouver, Edmonton, Vegas, and LA should be good. But if one of those teams has a poor season and ends up missing the playoffs it wouldn't be a surprise to me.

Seattle, San Jose, and Anaheim are probably bad still. Not a huge fan of Seattles offseason, and San Jose and Anaheim will be better than last year but it remains to be seen by how much.

Nobody would have predicted that 14-15 team would sneak into the playoffs ahead of the defending stanley cup champions from the year prior.

If this team was playing in the Atlantic or Metro then I'd been more bullish on guaranteeing a bottom 5 finish.

But they will have winnable games against Anaheim, San Jose, and Seattle in the division that might actually help inflate the record a bit.

In terms of the defense Weegar, Andersson, Bahl, Bean, Miromanov, Pachal isn't all that different than Giordano, Wideman, Brodie, Russell, Smid, Engelland IMO.
LA was squeaking into the playoffs themselves the years prior.

I bet San Jose and Seattle have us penciled in as winnable games as well.

Mirmoanov is a project, and Pachal was a good waiver pick up. Outside of Weegar who do we expect to have a Wideman like season of 50 plus points? Maybe Andersson but he is likely gone. It's a slow group. The league has gotten faster.

They are likely to have a good PP, but that's about it. Just a few months ago we had people talk about how Huberdeau should go to the Flames and terminate his contract. Now they want the same guy to put 70 plus points.
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Old 09-17-2024, 05:10 PM   #108
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Man its gonna be annoying when people are complaining about every win
No one complains about wins, what are you talking about?
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Old 09-17-2024, 05:12 PM   #109
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LA was squeaking into the playoffs themselves the years prior.

I bet San Jose and Seattle have us penciled in as winnable games as well.

Mirmoanov is a project, and Pachal was a good waiver pick up. Outside of Weegar who do we expect to have a Wideman like season of 50 plus points? Maybe Andersson but he is likely gone. It's a slow group. The league has gotten faster.

They are likely to have a good PP, but that's about it. Just a few months ago we had people talk about how Huberdeau should go to the Flames and terminate his contract. Now they want the same guy to put 70 plus points.
The point is nobody would have in their right mind predicted that 14-15 Flames team could make the playoffs either.

It's easy to talk in absolutes but in reality isn't the case.

This team should be in line for a top 5 pick, I hope like hell that the pick 1st overall, but that's what we all would have said in 14-15 too.

It could be a top 5 pick, it could be a top 10 pick, they could sneak into the 8th wild card spot. Honestly think all those things are on the table with this roster. The top 5 pick is hopefully the most likely outcome, but it's also not a guarantee at all.

I honestly think this back end compares really closely to the 14-15 one:

Weegar = Giordano: 30 year old late bloomer coming off a great season where they solidifed themselves as a legitimate top pairing d-man

Andersson = Wideman: Offensive focused player that was coming off a down season but had high offensive potential and the fan base wanted to trade

Brodie = Bahl: 24 year old dman coming off their first 82 game season as NHLer that showed a lot of promise.

Bean = Russell: Former 26/27 year old highly touted Columbus Blue Jacket prospect that had shown some potential but struggled with staying healthy at the NHL level

Pachal = Engelland: Penciled in as the physical 6th dman that can also play on the PK.

The only real difference is Smid vs Miromanov...but Smid was gone after only 28 games that year.
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Old 09-17-2024, 05:52 PM   #110
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No one complains about wins, what are you talking about?
he means this coming year when everyone wants them to be dead last...come on, this one was easy
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Old 09-17-2024, 06:02 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
They SHOULD be bottom 5 bad - but the league is unpredictable.

The best teams in the league have a 55% xGF, the worst teams generally around 45% xGF.

Most games are a toss up and I think people underestimate that.

When I look at the teams who will be competing with the Flames for a top 5 pick there are 4 teams that were worse than the Flames last year that are probably still worse:

Columbus: It's tragic but probably the front runner for 1st overall pick

Anaheim: Still worse than the Flames IMO

Chicago: Outside of Bedard probably still worse but it will be close if he becomes a 100 point star this year.

San Jose: Improved but backend is even worse than Calgary, depends how good Smith/Celebrini/Askarov are from day 1.

Personally I'd rank the Flames right about here in pre-season power rankings but I think it's possible they could pass some of the teams ahead of them.

These teams finished behind the Flames last year but should be better this year but it's close:

Montreal: Lots of potential, should be much improved but very young and play in a tough division.

Ottawa: Lost Tarasenko and Chycrun...added Ullmark...if he doesn't improve their goaltending they could be worse this season.

Utah: Added Sergachev and should be better, but that team could easily finish behind Calgary still.

Seattle: Don't think they improved a whole lot, at the cap, and could easily also be a bottom 5 team.

And I think there are a couple of teams that finished ahead of Calgary that could easily be drafting top 10 this season.

Minnesota: Kaprizov, Faber, Spurgeon, Boldy and a bunch of filler IMO.

Washington: Not really sure what to think about this team.

Detroit: Think they are going to have a rough season.

That right there are the Flames and 11 other teams. I don't think they are a playoff team but much like most of last season they could pick anywhere from 1st OV to 12th OV and it wouldn't surprise me.

*Edmonton*: started 2023/2024 season 7-12-1. Were bottom dwellers most of the season (minus 1 winning streak) and now have signed Drai to a retirement contract and have yet to fire their head coach for that ‘new coach pump’. The oilers have drafted first overall in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2015. This is a team that knows a thing or two about tanking.

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Old 09-17-2024, 06:44 PM   #112
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he means this coming year when everyone wants them to be dead last...come on, this one was easy
I think most people understand professionals in the best league are not throwing games. Even if they lack skill and star players they will go out and work hard and try to win. That’s usually leads to some wins.

I think it’s the refs we need to look at.
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Old 09-17-2024, 08:27 PM   #113
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Trust me it wont be as annoying as having to hear you complain about the complainers 125 times per game in the game thread.
You aren't even a Flames fan so why do I care?
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Old 09-17-2024, 08:28 PM   #114
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No one complains about wins, what are you talking about?
Welcome to CP, I hope you enjoy the community
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Old 09-17-2024, 11:21 PM   #115
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So that possibly leaves Kuzmenko-Kadri-Coronato as another option?
Thinking sharongovich would be in there for coronoto
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Old 09-18-2024, 07:19 AM   #116
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Man its gonna be annoying when people are complaining about every win
This we can agree on.

Complete eye roll.

I want them to win every game, and quickly shift to draft position when they lose.

I don't agree with your team assessment, but I like hope, and I certainly agree with the anger about losses crowd.
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Old 09-18-2024, 07:56 AM   #117
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I will only complain if they start buying next year. No Hamonic trade this go around
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Old 09-18-2024, 09:22 AM   #118
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Do the players report for fitness testing today?
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Old 09-18-2024, 09:23 AM   #119
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Do the players report for fitness testing today?
Yes
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Old 09-18-2024, 09:29 AM   #120
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Anyone have a schedule for what the week looks like, I know we play Seattle on Sunday.
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