Russia invades Ukraine

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Muta

Here's a question (which I'm genuinely curious about) - NATO can't directly attack Russia lest they declare war, but can NATO provide defensive coverage over Ukraine for incoming Russian missile attacks?

They wouldn't be attacking Russia, just providing defense for Ukraine. I'm assuming since that isn't happening, it's forbidden under NATO's charter?

Some people think it might be a red line. I don't think it's clear where the red lines even are anymore. I thought providing weapons in the first place was one. Then I thought NATO training might be one. I thought drone attacks on Russian territories would be one. I thought the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk would be one. Maybe NATO should just go for it and help with missile defense coverage over Ukraine.

Then again, I am not sure we would even know if NATO crossed a red line and it may have already happened. Russia and Putin play the long game, so any retaliation might not happen immediately.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Please do not use Lindsay Graham as an example for anything, other than identifying a number on the Bristol Stool Chart. He's a nutty outlier.

Fair!

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I think NATO could spin it as peace keeping

More like Peacemaking

In my experience neither really work

[Itse]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Some people think it might be a red line. I don't think it's clear where the red lines even are anymore. I thought providing weapons in the first place was one. Then I thought NATO training might be one. I thought drone attacks on Russian territories would be one. I thought the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk would be one. Maybe NATO should just go for it and help with missile defense coverage over Ukraine.

Then again, I am not sure we would even know if NATO crossed a red line and it may have already happened. Russia and Putin play the long game, so any retaliation might not happen immediately.

There is no red line, never has been.

Putin will always at any point in time do anything he can, and always has, and nothing will change that. He has been actively doing everything he can to harm every other major power as much as he can for a very long time now.

He also doesn't really have anything to retaliate with outside of nuclear weapons, and Ukraine has already done a lot more to provoke a nuclear response than NATO ever would.

If NATO would have declared a full aerial campaign against Russian troops in Ukraine, the only response would have been trying to shoot down NATO planes, the war would have been over in 2022, and massive amounts of lives and money would have been saved.

Nato is mentally weak and stupid, and that has been leading to the conflict escalating in very predictable ways, and the longer they are doing this, the more likely further escalations are.

[Huntingwhale]

The west and russia aren't speaking the same language. The ONLY language russia understand is force. That's it. Not red line speak. Not handshake deals or negotiations in a boardroom. Certainly not treaties or deals signed on paper. Force. That's it. Western arrogance plays a big part in this. We expect everyone around the world to think like us, to value the same things we do, to have the same line of thoughts and us and react to things the same way we do. So we expect russia to think the same, when it's been clear as day since back in the initial invasion back in 2014 that this is not the case. Russians don't think like us. They are culturally different then us, they react differently to things then we do, and they push back on things that we view as normal. There is no win-win in their society. There is a winner and loser. Westerners don't think like this and still see the possibility of normalizing relations with russia down the road and that should not be the case. Until the west realizes that Ukraine must WIN, and not hope the russians magically get tired and go home (which is quite obviously the west's plan) this stupid war will grind on.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Western arrogance plays a big part in this. We expect everyone around the world to think like us, to value the same things we do, to have the same line of thoughts and us and react to things the same way we do. So we expect russia to think the same, when it's been clear as day since back in the initial invasion back in 2014 that this is not the case. Russians don't think like us. They are culturally different then us, they react differently to things then we do, and they push back on things that we view as normal. There is no win-win in their society. There is a winner and loser. Westerners don't think like this and still see the possibility of normalizing relations with russia down the road and that should not be the case. Until the west realizes that Ukraine must WIN, and not hope the russians magically get tired and go home (which is quite obviously the west's plan) this stupid war will grind on.

110% agree with the bolded. And this is the source of a lot of the tensions between the west and the rest of the world's nations. The inability or unwillingness to acknowledge and accept that nations may not want to change their system of governance to what the west has and that this is actually okay. The two nations should still be able to work with each other even with all of the differences. And also, our insistence that we "know" what the other country's citizens want (which is always, "to live how we live").

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by activeStick

110% agree with the bolded. And this is the source of a lot of the tensions between the west and the rest of the world's nations. The inability or unwillingness to acknowledge and accept that nations may not want to change their system of governance to what the west has and that this is actually okay. The two nations should still be able to work with each other even with all of the differences. And also, our insistence that we "know" what the other country's citizens want (which is always, "to live how we live").

That's what the West tried to do with Putin, and look how that turned out. Germany so afraid to defend a neighbour because they had hitched their horse to the Russian energy supply. Expanding industrial relation with China and they just steal IP and crush our industries with it. Some nations just aren't worth dealing with.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by activeStick

110% agree with the bolded. And this is the source of a lot of the tensions between the west and the rest of the world's nations. The inability or unwillingness to acknowledge and accept that nations may not want to change their system of governance to what the west has and that this is actually okay. The two nations should still be able to work with each other even with all of the differences. And also, our insistence that we "know" what the other country's citizens want (which is always, "to live how we live").

Which is why the West should be supporting Ukraine more. They chose to look West and Russia said they wouldn't allow it.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's what the West tried to do with Putin, and look how that turned out. Germany so afraid to defend a neighbour because they had hitched their horse to the Russian energy supply. Expanding industrial relation with China and they just steal IP and crush our industries with it. Some nations just aren't worth dealing with.

I hope the west and China continue to do business together as both can benefit from that relationship and I'm hopeful they will despite the politics given continued and recent visits from key business leaders to China. I read an article recently from the Harvard Business Review which talks through a lot of points much better than I ever could. I also took this off topic (apologies all!).

https://hbr.org/2024/08/the-4-key-st...onal-companies

[greyshep]

Originally Posted by starseed

Very sad news from the telegraph's podcast Ukraine: the latest. David Knowles passed away from a heart attack. He was 32.


So tragic. I've listened to his podcast almost every day since the beginning of the war.

That is very sad to hear. I listened daily for the first year and a bit but only tune in occasionally now.

[OldDutch]

I always viewed the current West strategy as wearing out the Russians with no loss of west troops. Similar to what Regan did to the Soviets by outspending them into oblivion.

The longer this goes on the better in the West eyes. Russia has been politically exposed as a joke, and they are running out of equipment by the day.

If Ukraine wins all the better but the above is the actual goal I think.

Full honesty I don’t like that strategy (if its even one) but its does seem plausible why NATO is on the sidelines.

[Itse]

I don't think NATO or the west has a strategy anymore, especially not after the US has been completely distracted by Gaza and the election, and Bidens mental acuity collapsing to a point where he probably can't do his job anymore.

Putin is just right about the West, we are soft and easily distracted.

We are also fully just losing the information war, because Russia keeps at it while the West has lost interest.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't think NATO or the west has a strategy anymore, especially not after the US has been completely distracted by Gaza and the election, and Bidens mental acuity collapsing to a point where he probably can't do his job anymore.

Putin is just right about the West, we are soft and easily distracted.

We are also fully just losing the information war, because Russia keeps at it while the West has lost interest.

As if. Biden's oldman-ness has nothing to do with this. He's not an autocrat or monarch making top-down edicts that get implemented on his whims. He's supportive of the advice from his teams and is one of many that are making these decisions.

I agree with OldDutch. The west is helping just enough to keep the Russians bleeding and their coffers draining. It's the best strategy to further western interests. Personally, I value Ukrainian lives above western geopolitical interests, so I'm supportive of more aggressive support in favour of Ukraine to expedite and ensure a Russian loss, but the current strategy is super logical albeit a bit cold.

[activeStick]

Got a chance to check out the Ukrainian Festival here in Toronto yesterday, which someone told me is the largest of its kind in North America? Had some delicious food (borsht and their version of the pierogi) and got to take in some traditional Ukrainian dance and music. The festival was absolutely jammed!

Then headed off to the Polish Festival nearby and had more pierogis and Polish sausages and beers. Capped off the festival day by checking out the festival downtown celebrating Mexican Independance Day and had some tacos.

Love Toronto in the summer!

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't think NATO or the west has a strategy anymore, especially not after the US has been completely distracted by Gaza and the election, and Bidens mental acuity collapsing to a point where he probably can't do his job anymore.

Putin is just right about the West, we are soft and easily distracted.

We are also fully just losing the information war, because Russia keeps at it while the West has lost interest.

I don't buy that this boil the frog/bleed them dry approach is part of the master plan either. I think it just happens to be a product of how it's all going, but I don't think that people sit around a table and decide that this is somehow a good strategy and want to keep it going.

I cannot envision millions of Ukrainian refugees being displaced around the world being part of the strategy. I don't think it's part of the plan to have China keeping watch and seeing how aid would play out if they attacked Taiwan. Russia and Iran making significant tech advances in drone warfare and getting to test out their products in real-time, russia supposedly sharing missile tech with both Iran and NK I can't imagine the US enjoys seeing that. These are all consequences of this war dragging on and there is lot more negatives than positives if the approach is to bleed russia dry.

[Agamemnon]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't think NATO or the west has a strategy anymore, especially not after the US has been completely distracted by Gaza and the election, and Bidens mental acuity collapsing to a point where he probably can't do his job anymore.

Putin is just right about the West, we are soft and easily distracted.

We are also fully just losing the information war, because Russia keeps at it while the West has lost interest.

Economic sanctions are gutting Russia's economy completely. Whether they win or lose the war in Ukraine, they have lost the economic war, probably a lot more important than the information one in the long run. It will take Russia 50 years to recover from Western softness and distraction.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I don't buy that this boil the frog/bleed them dry approach is part of the master plan either. I think it just happens to be a product of how it's all going, but I don't think that people sit around a table and decide that this is somehow a good strategy and want to keep it going.

I cannot envision millions of Ukrainian refugees being displaced around the world being part of the strategy. I don't think it's part of the plan to have China keeping watch and seeing how aid would play out if they attacked Taiwan. Russia and Iran making significant tech advances in drone warfare and getting to test out their products in real-time, russia supposedly sharing missile tech with both Iran and NK I can't imagine the US enjoys seeing that. These are all consequences of this war dragging on and there is lot more negatives than positives if the approach is to bleed russia dry.

If it wasn’t part of the plan that was deemed the best outcome for the US then why is it occurring. The US could win this war very quickly if it chose to merely provide air support to the Ukraine army.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by GGG

If it wasn’t part of the plan that was deemed the best outcome for the US then why is it occurring. The US could win this war very quickly if it chose to merely provide air support to the Ukraine army.

I think the fear that Putin, if backed into a corner might do something monumentally stupid, like a tactical nuke on Kiev, is a real fear for NATO

You have to assume if Russia loses Putin ends up strung up like Mussolini, strong men don't survive losing a war often, and that's the fear, Putin faced with death is quite capable of doing something that 'Russia' as a country wouldn't, I suspect NATO/the west is hoping that a long losing war will give Putin time to find a way out which a sudden collapse doesnt

[Sylvanfan]

https://thedailyguardian.com/putin-u...g-work-breaks/

Russians starting to get concerned about the low birthrate to the point they're asking people to procreate during work breaks? One MP Zhanna Ryabtseva saying start having children at 18.

Less than 100,000 births in Russia in June.

[Itse]

I wonder if there will be a post-war baby boom in Ukraine and Russia.