American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[puffnstuff]

Those are for state wide races, cant gerrymander those. They do that for state races like Congress.
What they do is voter supression instead; they remove voters from the rolls, they close polling stations, they want to eliminate early voting and mailin voting, they take advantage of Russian paid RW social media clowns pushing outrageous lies about immigrants, liberals, guns, socialism, Marxism etc

[Mathgod]

New poll showing Trump leading nationally by 2 points. While it's only one poll, it's definitely not a good sign.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

New poll showing Trump leading nationally by 2 points. While it's only one poll, it's definitely not a good sign.

Harris needs to attack on Tuesday, can't keep this up not saying anything.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

New poll showing Trump leading nationally by 2 points. While it's only one poll, it's definitely not a good sign.

come on now, Harris is winning the popular vote at least

[Zulu29]

Trump is done, he’s unravelling. Harris has it in the bag.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

New poll showing Trump leading nationally by 2 points. While it's only one poll, it's definitely not a good sign.

538 still has Harris leading by 3. Still two months to go before election day though, so anything can happen over that span. Bottom line is that team blue needs to kick it up a notch and start campaigning the f*** out of the swing states over these next few weeks.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Trump is done, he’s unravelling. Harris has it in the bag.

Like that hasn't been said a million times before. It should be obvious by now, it doesn't matter what Trump does or doesn't do. He could shart his pants on live TV during the debate and his cult members would start wearing depends to show their support, and the media would focus on the color of Kamala's eyeliner

[Itse]

While there are plenty of Trump cultists, most are not.

They've just formed their worldview on what they're being told by people with money, and the billionaires heavily favor Trump. Also, plenty of racism and misogyny affects the vote, and them there's the not insignificant part of the population who are absolutely voting for the end of democracy.

The young/left are also not refusing to vote simply out of laziness. At lesst my fairly leftist social media is currentiy just flooded with "leftist" messages aimed at convincing leftists to not vote at all, it's a huge campaign and I can see it having quite a lot of effect. There's a lot of well meaning left leaning influencers pushing it too.

If it wasn't for the abortion issue, Harris would have no chance, and I'm not convinced she has a chance with it.

Social media rules the world now, and social media is ruled by bad or absolutely terrible people.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

The simple reality is that human beings are generally pretty awful. Best avoided, really, if you can manage it.

Maybe I’m a Pollyanna but I refuse to believe most people on this earth are awful. I do believe however that a lot of people want to be told what to do how and how to think, rather than make up their own minds on things. I also believe that people think there is more value in stubbornly sticking to your poor decisions than reevaluating and changing your mind and admitting a mistake.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Itse

While there are plenty of Trump cultists, most are not.

They've just formed their worldview on what they're being told by people with money, and the billionaires heavily favor Trump. Also, plenty of racism and misogyny affects the vote, and them there's the not insignificant part of the population who are absolutely voting for the end of democracy.

The young/left are also not refusing to vote simply out of laziness. At lesst my fairly leftist social media is currentiy just flooded with "leftist" messages aimed at convincing leftists to not vote at all, it's a huge campaign and I can see it having quite a lot of effect. There's a lot of well meaning left leaning influencers pushing it too.

If it wasn't for the abortion issue, Harris would have no chance, and I'm not convinced she has a chance with it.

Social media rules the world now, and social media is ruled by bad or absolutely terrible people.

I can't square that someone could be a well meaning leftist, but encourage an outcome that is so much worse for so many groups of people that I would think a leftist would care about.

[Senator Clay Davis]

It's worth remembering that before Biden dropped out that the consensus was that Harris would not be a very good replacement. Swapping out Biden was always going to give whoever replaced him a temporary jolt, as going from a practically dead candidate to an alive one should do. But since the jolt has faded Harris has done nothing to sustain the momentum, and the concerns about her as a candidate have become validated. It's nice that she's avoided any crucial errors, but she hasn't done anything to actually motivate support. Going from voting for Biden cause "He's not Trump" to voting for Harris cause "She's not Trump, but actually mentally competent" is still not going to be good enough. Sure, of course, it should be, but it just won't be. Murica, remember?

Also worth remembering that before Biden dropped out Trump was a 95% favourite, so that Trump is, IMO, down to about a 55% favourite is still a massive improvement in the Dems chances. If they could just somehow oust Harris and get Walz to the top of the ticket they might actually win. I think Walz is the far more inspiring of the two. Harris might still be able to win with the four corners offense approach and just hoping for enough Trump meltdowns, but it is not a great strategy IMO. Trump has shown he can say and do anything without losing support, and I really doubt he'd lose much, if any, even if he did go to calling her the N-word. Murica scale, but it might actually get him a small bump to do so. "He tells it like it is!" or whatever.

[Bonded]

Harris needs a strong debate. Polls have her momentum fading. Don’t Clinton 2.0 it.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Times Siena Poll has Trump and Kamala essentially 50:50. Still a lot of work to be done by Kamala.

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

A lot of people who vote for Trump don’t like him. His appeal is that their enemies hate him. Negative partisanship is the driver of American politics today.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GGG

The only one I can think is women in University. Which does affect a lot of these areas. More should be done to encourage high school aged boys to pursue Post Secomdary Ed in the most lucrative fields. But I suspect when you say over correction you aren’t talking about that and instead are being caught up in gender war bull####.

The huge and widening gap in education outcomes for boys vs girls starts well before university, and is the root of the growing political divergence of men and women. And yet you rarely hear anything about it from Democrats or the left. When Richard Reeves was writing Of Boys and Men, he was struck by how many educators and parents who are troubled by the gender gap were reluctant to go on the record to talk about it. The fear seems to be that speaking up about disparities hurting boys and men = MRA = right-wing. Conservatives aren’t the only ones who treat gender as a zero sum game.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Harris needs a strong debate. Polls have her momentum fading. Don’t Clinton 2.0 it.

You can basically pinpoint the moment Harris lost her juice when her team forced the messaging to pivot back to the same stances as Biden on everything.

Who knew the people yearned for at least a minor shift to the left.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The huge and widening gap in education outcomes for boys vs girls starts well before university, and is the root of the growing political divergence of men and women. And yet you rarely hear anything about it from Democrats or the left. When Richard Reeves was writing Of Boys and Men, he was struck by how many educators and parents who are troubled by the gender gap were reluctant to go on the record to talk about it. The fear seems to be that speaking up about disparities hurting boys and men = MRA = right-wing. Conservatives aren’t the only ones who treat gender as a zero sum game.

I'm going to guess that right-wing demonization of education, especially post-secondary institutions, and the general thread of anti-intellectualism that is so pervasive in their rhetoric, has led young men (who vastly outnumber women in leaning right under-30) away from going to college. It wouldn't be shocking to hear that they are avoiding "woke" campuses and "elite" professors.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I can't square that someone could be a well meaning leftist, but encourage an outcome that is so much worse for so many groups of people that I would think a leftist would care about.

Yeah, I honestly have very limited understanding for that view. I get it, but it's so damned stupid.

It's exactly the kind of BS that smart educated people tend to fall far unfortunately, and they can make a convincing sounding case. Its all nonsense and rhetorics of course but it also feeds into this desperation and tiredness that people feel about politics.

It's actually a downside of bombing people with messages about how bad the GOP is, because the GOP is doing the same of course, and the sum result of that is that a lot of people really just want to get away from it all. Then you add some "elections only prop up an inherently unfair system and are not a pathway to systematic change" and a drop of "don't vote for the Top Cop"... It's an appealing package, unfortunately.

People losing faith in democracy is a self-fulfilling prophecy in many ways.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The huge and widening gap in education outcomes for boys vs girls starts well before university, and is the root of the growing political divergence of men and women. And yet you rarely hear anything about it from Democrats or the left. When Richard Reeves was writing Of Boys and Men, he was struck by how many educators and parents who are troubled by the gender gap were reluctant to go on the record to talk about it. The fear seems to be that speaking up about disparities hurting boys and men = MRA = right-wing. Conservatives aren’t the only ones who treat gender as a zero sum game.

I would agree with this. There is also a lack of strong male role models that are appealing to young men, which is why so many are drawn to Andrew Tate, Jordan Peterson etc. These men promote masculinity in a way that is of course toxic, but they give young men someone who speaks to them and "cares" about them. My suspicion is it is rooted in the mental health epidemic prevalent in young men because they lack strong social connections because of social media.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Itse

While there are plenty of Trump cultists, most are not.

They've just formed their worldview on what they're being told by people with money, and the billionaires heavily favor Trump. Also, plenty of racism and misogyny affects the vote, and them there's the not insignificant part of the population who are absolutely voting for the end of democracy.

The young/left are also not refusing to vote simply out of laziness. At lesst my fairly leftist social media is currentiy just flooded with "leftist" messages aimed at convincing leftists to not vote at all, it's a huge campaign and I can see it having quite a lot of effect. There's a lot of well meaning left leaning influencers pushing it too.

If it wasn't for the abortion issue, Harris would have no chance, and I'm not convinced she has a chance with it.

Social media rules the world now, and social media is ruled by bad or absolutely terrible people.

That's pretty interesting. I would have thought that social media would give the left a huge advantage? What was before social media? Rush Limbaugh and conservative talk radio.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I would agree with this. There is also a lack of strong male role models that are appealing to young men, which is why so many are drawn to Andrew Tate, Jordan Peterson etc. These men promote masculinity in a way that is of course toxic, but they give young men someone who speaks to them and "cares" about them. My suspicion is it is rooted in the mental health epidemic prevalent in young men because they lack strong social connections because of social media.

It's the perception of a degree = success. That's a trap. Think about if you're in a small town, you're grandfather worked in a mine, raised a family, your dad worked in a mine raised a family and now you're working in a mine and you're deemed a failure, undesirable.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Those are for state wide races, cant gerrymander those. They do that for state races like Congress.
What they do is voter supression instead; they remove voters from the rolls, they close polling stations, they want to eliminate early voting and mailin voting, they take advantage of Russian paid RW social media clowns pushing outrageous lies about immigrants, liberals, guns, socialism, Marxism etc

Unfortunately, states can do whatever they want. And Texas sees the writing on the wall here and they're already looking at doing something about it via a statewide electoral college type system which would give outsize power to smaller, rural districts.