[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by looooob

I think its definitely plausible that advanced health regimes and training techniques, which I think is being argued (hence the new v old legends) is a real thing- I do wonder if - with these smaller cohorts- the era may be playing a role (I think that is what you are suggesting). the old legends- by some napkin math average around birth year 1967 so their 30s correspond roughly with the peak/onset of the dead puck era?

Yeah, I kind of adjusted for that by using the indexing method, but was mainly to amplify the difference between a 200-point season going to 110 and a 100 point season going to 10.

So while their raw point totals are partially a function of skill/health and partially a function of era, the scoring environment does change within each player's career. That's not included in those numbers.

VilleN brought up the improved training and nutrition hypothesis and it looks like it's absolutely been the case - more than I would have imagined.

[Enoch Root]

The scoring era issue should average out, with some players being effected one way, and others the opposite

The nutrition/health issue should add longevity, but the challenge for players is that everyone is healthier and in better shape, so the effects of aging remain, on a relative basis. And in fact, we actually see little change in overall career lengths. We also do not see career point totals rising, so it appears that the health issue does not materially impact performance numbers.

[dino7c]

we can go on and on but Drai's 2nd half of his career will be less productive than the first...spoiler

[Hackey]

They were one win away from winning the Stanley Cup. If you can sign the best duo in the league in their prime, you do it. I don't think their concern is long-term. When you're close to a Cup you go for it. Even if that window is short.

[Phil Russell]

Originally Posted by Hackey

They were one win away from winning the Stanley Cup. If you can sign the best duo in the league in their prime, you do it. I don't think their concern is long-term. When you're close to a Cup you go for it. Even if that window is short.

Yep. They are at peak go for it. The question is can they do it with the best two offensive players in the game and an average, overpriced and old supporting cast. They gelled last playoff and came whithin a whisker. Here's hoping the supporting cast fails them as it should and the stars do not align again.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dino7c

we can go on and on but Drai's 2nd half of his career will be less productive than the first...spoiler

Absolutely.

But so will 99% of 8 year contracts signed for players approaching 30.

But if you want to win the SC, it’s pretty much the only way to do so.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The nutrition/health issue should add longevity, but the challenge for players is that everyone is healthier and in better shape, so the effects of aging remain, on a relative basis. And in fact, we actually see little change in overall career lengths.

Yeah, you're right. Hmm. I wonder if the results of the re-run were skewed because the players that VilleN picked simply had unremarkable declines, which has certainly been a characteristic of a few players in all eras.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Absolutely.

But so will 99% of 8 year contracts signed for players approaching 30.

But if you want to win the SC, it’s pretty much the only way to do so.

That's like the "having a Canadian captain" argument. It's the only way to do so until everyone realizes it isn't.

[curves2000]

Slightly off topic but I do think a lot of players these days might be over training and spending too much time in the gym/ on the ice. As Enoch Root pointed out, careers haven't really extended all that much, if anything in some ways you find A LOT less players who are 35+. Gio was the oldest player last year in the NHL and was fresh 40 with relatively low milage on him for a player. In the 90's there were a lot of players who played 40+.

NFL QB Tom Brady did extensive work on athletic performance well into your 40's. Talked about how the training is somewhat counterintuitive. As you age, you need more rest and recovery but in order to maintain and improve fitness, you need to work out more and harder.

Lifting heavy weights, eating foods that don't help with inflammation and more don't help with longevity. I do think a lot of NHL players are somewhat behind in terms of overall nutrition compared to what some players in soccer for example. The NHL is just so steak, chicken and pasta heavy.

[Junglist]

Go Flames Go!

[GioforPM]

I agree that the Oilers really had no choice but to extended both McDavid (if they can) and Draisaitl. BUT I also think it's not going to work, and last season was their best chance for a number of reasons. Their cap is worse this year and will get progressivly worse. They will never have the seas part in the POs like last season. And Skinner is due for a regression.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Slightly off topic but I do think a lot of players these days might be over training and spending too much time in the gym/ on the ice. As Enoch Root pointed out, careers haven't really extended all that much, if anything in some ways you find A LOT less players who are 35+. Gio was the oldest player last year in the NHL and was fresh 40 with relatively low milage on him for a player. In the 90's there were a lot of players who played 40+.

NFL QB Tom Brady did extensive work on athletic performance well into your 40's. Talked about how the training is somewhat counterintuitive. As you age, you need more rest and recovery but in order to maintain and improve fitness, you need to work out more and harder.

Lifting heavy weights, eating foods that don't help with inflammation and more don't help with longevity. I do think a lot of NHL players are somewhat behind in terms of overall nutrition compared to what some players in soccer for example. The NHL is just so steak, chicken and pasta heavy.

Butterfly posted a nice graph showing that the NHL "new legends" are having better aging curves on average than the "old legends".

Some of that might just be the scoring environment going up in the latter part of the "new legends" careers vs scoring trending down in the late 90s for the "old legends".

I would assume that NHLers are looking at new and innovative training methods though.

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/play...l-players.html

This site shows the best seasons by players by age.
By my count 23 of the top 50 seasons for 38 year old players have happened post-lockout.
23 out of 50 for 39 year old players as well.
24 out of 50 for age 40 players.
Only 26 player have played at age 42. 12 of them post lockout.
5 out of 12 post lockout for age 43.
Age 45 is only Chelios (69) games. Jagr (22 games). Johnny Bower (1 game).

So it seems the last 20 years are showing pretty well for longevity.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Butterfly posted a nice graph showing that the NHL "new legends" are having better aging curves on average than the "old legends".

Some of that might just be the scoring environment going up in the latter part of the "new legends" careers vs scoring trending down in the late 90s for the "old legends".

I would assume that NHLers are looking at new and innovative training methods though.

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/play...l-players.html

This site shows the best seasons by players by age.
By my count 23 of the top 50 seasons for 38 year old players have happened post-lockout.
23 out of 50 for 39 year old players as well.
24 out of 50 for age 40 players.
Only 26 player have played at age 42. 12 of them post lockout.
5 out of 12 post lockout for age 43.

So it seems the last 20 years are showing pretty well for longevity.

How does that compare to the number of players in the league before and after the lockout? The league was smaller before 2004 than it is now, substantially smaller before 1992, and for the first half of its history it was never larger than 12 teams.

It's statistically meaningless to compare numerators when you don't know the denominators.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

How does that compare to the number of players in the league before and after the lockout? The league was smaller before 2004 than it is now, substantially smaller before 1992, and for the first half of its history it was never larger than 12 teams.

It's statistically meaningless to compare numerators when you don't know the denominators.

There are more roster spots now than in the 1970s for sure. Roster sizes have also increased. The talent pool is also bigger because the Europeans came over.

Would it have been easier for a star player to stay in the league from 92 to 2002 when the number of teams went from 22 to 30 because the talent was being diluted?

Pretty hard to make a judgement on that either way.

[Enoch Root]

The solution here is a larger data set

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The solution here is a larger data set

Crunch the numbers. I'll review them when you are finished.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

That's like the "having a Canadian captain" argument. It's the only way to do so until everyone realizes it isn't.

What do you think they should have done?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

There are more roster spots now than in the 1970s for sure. Roster sizes have also increased. The talent pool is also bigger because the Europeans came over.

Would it have been easier for a star player to stay in the league from 92 to 2002 when the number of teams went from 22 to 30 because the talent was being diluted?

Pretty hard to make a judgement on that either way.

Just as a starting point, in 2003-04 there were nine players in the NHL aged 40 or older. Most years since the '04 lockout there have been four or fewer, and in 2023-24, Giordano was the only one.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you think they should have done?

Are you asking what I think Edmonton should have done with respect to Draisaitl?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

How does that compare to the number of players in the league before and after the lockout? The league was smaller before 2004 than it is now, substantially smaller before 1992, and for the first half of its history it was never larger than 12 teams.

It's statistically meaningless to compare numerators when you don't know the denominators.

I think they do have a point, because:

Originally Posted by curves2000

Slightly off topic but I do think a lot of players these days might be over training and spending too much time in the gym/ on the ice. As Enoch Root pointed out, careers haven't really extended all that much, if anything in some ways you find A LOT less players who are 35+. Gio was the oldest player last year in the NHL and was fresh 40 with relatively low milage on him for a player. In the 90's there were a lot of players who played 40+.

NFL QB Tom Brady did extensive work on athletic performance well into your 40's. Talked about how the training is somewhat counterintuitive. As you age, you need more rest and recovery but in order to maintain and improve fitness, you need to work out more and harder.

Lifting heavy weights, eating foods that don't help with inflammation and more don't help with longevity. I do think a lot of NHL players are somewhat behind in terms of overall nutrition compared to what some players in soccer for example. The NHL is just so steak, chicken and pasta heavy.

This just isn't true. In 1993-94, 30 years ago, there were zero players age 39+ who appeared in a game.