American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Young white males. There is a gap of 50 points between young white females and young white males.

What is role of the white male in a Democrat world?

You look at all the orgs that endorse Harris, none are white males. If you came from Mars and watched the DNC, you'd think America was 80 percent female and 70 percent black.

The selection was Walz is supposed to present a different role for white males.

The young male vs young female split is happening throughout the world. It all coincides with a shift in the belief from feminism lifts all boats to feminism is zero sum and gains of women are losses of men. Some interesting work being done studying this area suggest it’s about losses in all the areas men used to gain status. - Money, Women, Career. All of these have become more difficult and success more concentrated which has led to an appeal to the past.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Times Siena Poll has Trump and Kamala essentially 50:50. Still a lot of work to be done by Kamala.

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

Think of how stupid the average person is and then realize that nearly half are even less intelligent. Trump is a grifter and dumb people fall for it.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Unless they shift to red after moving; considering they're moving in frustration of their old state governments.
Maybe Trump is too extreme for them; but I don't see them moving from California to Texas and wanting to bring California politics with them.

Where do you think people from California are moving to when they move to Texas? They're not moving to the middle of nowhere. The vast majority move to the cities and their suburbs, areas that are all blue. Biden won the 6 biggest cities in Texas in 2020 (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, Forth Worth, and El Paso), most of them handily. He won by 45 points in Austin and by over 30 points in Dallas and El Paso.

Look at some of the swings towards Democrats in 2020 vs. what Obama got:

Harris County (Houston): +13.2%

Dallas County: +16.2%

Tarrant County (Fort Worth): +15.4%

Bexar County (San Antonio): +13.7%

Travis County (Austin): +21.1%


Those cities are clearly becoming more blue, in part because people from other states are moving to them. Houston, Dallas, and Fort Worth were Republican locks for decades post Civil Rights Act, yet even Hillary Clinton won them by double digits.

[Yamer]

Trump had a baked-in base by becoming the Republican nominee. Had he ran as an independent none of this would have happened at all. Since then everything has shifted dramatically.

Too many people like the idea of fascism. They just don't like the word Nazi.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Then how does Texas move blue if they're moving to already blue cities?
I hope it flips but just don't see it.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Then how does Texas move blue if they're moving to already blue cities?
I hope it flips but just don't see it.

Are you serious? Surely you can see how getting more votes in the cities than they currently get will give them a better shot in statewide races for President and Senate. Look at the margins in Harris County (Houston) for the last 3 elections:

2012: +971 votes for Obama over Romney
2016: +162K votes for Clinton over Trump
2020: +217K votes for Biden over Trump

And Dallas:

2012: +110K
2016: +198K
2020: +275K

If that trend continues, then they will start to close the overall 600K vote gap from 2020. Will it turn blue overall anytime soon, that's hard to say. But people who move to cities tend to vote Democratic, and that's true all over the country.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Times Siena Poll has Trump and Kamala essentially 50:50. Still a lot of work to be done by Kamala.

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

The thing is a large portion of republican voters, hell maybe even the majority, don't like Trump as a person. They don't care for his antics, his idiotic rambling, his childish tantrums on Twitter. But the one thing they do like is that he targets the demographics that they hate. He constantly attacks LGBTQ, women, minorities, muslims, etc, and republicans desperately want to return to a time where none of those groups were relevant. Hate drives the GOP, it has since Reagan at least, and Trump has been able to focus that hate like no other candidate has

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Yamer

Too many people like the idea of fascism. They just don't like the word Nazi.

"But are there not many fascists in your country [America]?"

"There are many who do not know they are fascists but will find it out when the time comes."

"But you cannot destroy them until they rebel?"

"No," Robert Jordan said. "We cannot destroy them. But we can educate the people so that they will fear fascism and recognize it as it appears and combat it."

Ernest Hemingway, "For Whom the Bell Tolls", 1940

Just as true today as it was 85 years ago.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Think of how stupid the average person is and then realize that nearly half are even less intelligent. Trump is a grifter and dumb people fall for it.

Yup, Trump gets the dumb and of course the racist votes. problem is there was 74 million of them last time. What a country.

[Josh]

Yep, many days it's downright embarrassing to be here.

We're already starting to look at houses in Calgary just in case it's time to bug out.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Josh

Yep, many days it's downright embarrassing to be here.

We're already starting to look at houses in Calgary just in case it's time to bug out.

The problem is that if the U.S. turns to fascism, it’s only a matter of time before Canada heads down that path as well. It wouldn’t happen overnight of course, but I’d give it maybe 15 years or so before it starts happening here, and that’s probably being generous. We’re already witnessing the seeds of fascism in Alberta under the UCP.

[MoneyGuy]

^You’re being optimistic. I give it five years. We’re already seeing it.

[firebug]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

^You’re being optimistic. I give it five years. We’re already seeing it.

Yep, we'd be Anschlussed in less than 5 years I'd bet.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

The young male vs young female split is happening throughout the world. It all coincides with a shift in the belief from feminism lifts all boats to feminism is zero sum and gains of women are losses of men. Some interesting work being done studying this area suggest it’s about losses in all the areas men used to gain status. - Money, Women, Career. All of these have become more difficult and success more concentrated which has led to an appeal to the past.

Sure but by definition conservatives are against change and liberals are for change. There has certainly been a correction which is justified and that has lifted all boats but is there an overcorrection and is questioning it automatically seen as sexist and racist?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Sure but by definition conservatives are against change and liberals are for change. There has certainly been a correction which is justified and that has lifted all boats but is there an overcorrection and is questioning it automatically seen as sexist and racist?

What would be an example of an over correction? A reverse pay gap?

The only one I can think is women in University. Which does affect a lot of these areas. More should be done to encourage high school aged boys to pursue Post Secomdary Ed in the most lucrative fields. But I suspect when you say over correction you aren’t talking about that and instead are being caught up in gender war bull####.

[Dion]

Bernie Sanders has good things to say about the Cheney's

https://twitter.com/user/status/1832795669997756778

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

What would be an example of an over correction? A reverse pay gap?

The only one I can think is women in University. Which does affect a lot of these areas. More should be done to encourage high school aged boys to pursue Post Secomdary Ed in the most lucrative fields. But I suspect when you say over correction you aren’t talking about that and instead are being caught up in gender war bull####.

You may think its bull#### but of course there is overcorrection, it comes in the messaging. "Women Rule The World"

The goal of feminism is to gain equality, yet they are sending out a message that is so women-centric that it serves as an exclusion of men. It is, by all accounts, an overcorrection of the current problem.

That tendency towards overcorrection is exactly what I think is holding the feminist movement back. In order to effect change in society at large, a political movement must garner followers–and not just the people who were with them from the beginning. You have to make a conscious effort to convince people who would normally do otherwise to join your side, something I think feminism is doing a very poor job.

We need to correct the gender imbalance, not reverse it.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You may think its bull#### but of course there is overcorrection, it comes in the messaging. "Women Rule The World"

The goal of feminism is to gain equality, yet they are sending out a message that is so women-centric that it serves as an exclusion of men. It is, by all accounts, an overcorrection of the current problem.

That tendency towards overcorrection is exactly what I think is holding the feminist movement back. In order to effect change in society at large, a political movement must garner followers–and not just the people who were with them from the beginning. You have to make a conscious effort to convince people who would normally do otherwise to join your side, something I think feminism is doing a very poor job.

We need to correct the gender imbalance, not reverse it.

So you have no examples of a reversed gender imbalance?

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

You may think its bull#### but of course there is overcorrection, it comes in the messaging. "Women Rule The World"

The goal of feminism is to gain equality, yet they are sending out a message that is so women-centric that it serves as an exclusion of men. It is, by all accounts, an overcorrection of the current problem.

That tendency towards overcorrection is exactly what I think is holding the feminist movement back. In order to effect change in society at large, a political movement must garner followers–and not just the people who were with them from the beginning. You have to make a conscious effort to convince people who would normally do otherwise to join your side, something I think feminism is doing a very poor job.

We need to correct the gender imbalance, not reverse it.

It's not feminists or feminism that is doing a poor job. It's people and institutions that are telling you that's the case.

And you're eating it up.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Are you serious? Surely you can see how getting more votes in the cities than they currently get will give them a better shot in statewide races for President and Senate. Look at the margins in Harris County (Houston) for the last 3 elections:

2012: +971 votes for Obama over Romney
2016: +162K votes for Clinton over Trump
2020: +217K votes for Biden over Trump

And Dallas:

2012: +110K
2016: +198K
2020: +275K

If that trend continues, then they will start to close the overall 600K vote gap from 2020. Will it turn blue overall anytime soon, that's hard to say. But people who move to cities tend to vote Democratic, and that's true all over the country.

The republicans will gerrymander the district boundaries the minute they they think they'll loose.