*Updated* Ongoing Bank of Canada Benchmark Rate Announcements

[blankall]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Canada CPI YOY for July was 2.5%

Green light for further BOC decreases?

Almost certainly happening. Fixed rates are already falling. Some 5 year rates below 4.5% now. I'm (selfishly) hoping that by the time I need to renew in a little under 2 years, rates will be around 3%.

[Torture]

Continued cuts are almost a certainty at this point.
But screw this gradual 0.25% at a time, let's get all the cuts we can in before the end of the year when my mortgage needs to be renewed. Go big or go home Tiff!

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Torture

Continued cuts are almost a certainty at this point.
But screw this gradual 0.25% at a time, let's get all the cuts we can in before the end of the year when my mortgage needs to be renewed. Go big or go home Tiff!

My 1.95% 5 year close is due in June 2025. No chance that hits again? I guess if it does average price of a house in Calgary will be $750k +.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by blankall

Almost certainly happening. Fixed rates are already falling. Some 5 year rates below 4.5% now. I'm (selfishly) hoping that by the time I need to renew in a little under 2 years, rates will be around 3%.

The forecasts that I've seen have 5 year fixed rates bottoming out early next year in anticipation of the prime rate bottoming out at 2.75 by end of 2025. But depending who you believe, rates under 4% don't seem likely any time soon the one table I saw had 4.25 as it's bottom out, another one has a range of 3.75 to 4.25 happening around mid year. Even on my one bank prime -1.0 variable, it's still going to be 4.1 if the overnight is 2.75.

Obviously opendoor will have better insight than I will. But seems like the bond markets DON'T expect the central banks to go lower than that. You might need this monkey pox thing in Central Africa to cause another pandemic if you want sub 3% rates by 2026.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The forecasts that I've seen have 5 year fixed rates bottoming out early next year in anticipation of the prime rate bottoming out at 2.75 by end of 2025. But depending who you believe, rates under 4% don't seem likely any time soon the one table I saw had 4.25 as it's bottom out, another one has a range of 3.75 to 4.25 happening around mid year. Even on my one bank prime -1.0 variable, it's still going to be 4.1 if the overnight is 2.75.

Obviously opendoor will have better insight than I will. But seems like the bond markets expect the central banks to go lower than that. You might need this monkey pox thing in Central Africa to cause another pandemic if you want sub 3% rates by 2026.

Are you sure those weren't predictions for the end of 2024?

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by blankall

Are you sure those weren't predictions for the end of 2024?

You're talking Bank of Canada overnight rate being 2.75% by December down 1.75 from current level? If so yes, I don't see any analyst predicting it to fall this quickly. Most that I've seen are in the 4th quarter 2025 to first quarter 2026 for when the end of this down cycle is and still have 2.5 to 2.75 is the low water mark.

For fixed rate...end of this year and start of next year is close to the same. I think the one chart figured 4.35 fixed rates in January of 2025, but it was marginal difference from like December 2024 to February 2025 of like 0.05%.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

You might need this monkey pox thing in Central Africa to cause another pandemic if you want sub 3% rates by 2026.

Personally I vote "no" on additional pandemics.

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Torture

Continued cuts are almost a certainty at this point.
But screw this gradual 0.25% at a time, let's get all the cuts we can in before the end of the year when my mortgage needs to be renewed. Go big or go home Tiff!

More of a saying for fixed rates, but "rocket up and parachute down".

We just need to see the Fed lower their rates to really see an impact on bond yields/fixed rates up here. And it's a comin'!

[DeluxeMoustache]

Another 0.25 rate cut today

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

More of a saying for fixed rates, but "rocket up and parachute down".

Just like gas. The little guy always gets raped.

[Sylvanfan]

I had seen a lot of analysts calling for a half point cut, but bank is taking it slow. Might still get two more quarter point cuts this year.

[DoubleF]

I have to renew by the end of November, so I'm hoping that I can wait a little longer and sneak in that extra quarter point expected in October.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

I have to renew by the end of November, so I'm hoping that I can wait a little longer and sneak in that extra quarter point expected in October.

Are you going Variable? If not it doesn't really matter on the timing of your renewal vs. the October rate decision.

If you are going fixed, you want the BoC to hike rates to 10% before your renewal, which will crush the bond market's inflation expectations and get you a nice 5 year rate (and a likely recession).

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

Are you going Variable? If not it doesn't really matter on the timing of your renewal vs. the October rate decision.

If you are going fixed, you want the BoC to hike rates to 10% before your renewal, which will crush the bond market's inflation expectations and get you a nice 5 year rate (and a likely recession).

Fixed.

My current lender is off by .15% to the best 3 year fixed rate offered by my mortgage broker (About $1K extra per year). My current lender will match the rate from another lender only if I boost my monthly payments by 5%. I don't really want to boost the payments right now, but I will if I have to. I'm hoping that waiting the extra few weeks will allow me to get the matching rate without higher monthly payments and/or a potentially lower 3 year rate.

That and I'm hoping to stay with the current lender and add on a HELOC product. The other lender doesn't offer HELOC products. I'm meeting and advisor to discuss this in the coming weeks. I don't mind the current rates they're offering me and I'd accept them right now, but I might as well wait another 6 weeks or so and see if I get a more favorable outcome.

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831349959456678056

[blankall]

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831349959456678056

Lol....wtf is this? No. What you are doing is not working. No. You don't have a plan.

[Ironhorse]

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831349959456678056

Comments are gold.

[pseudoreality]

Originally Posted by chemgear

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831349959456678056

That is a pretty stupid thing to say. Rates are being cut because the economy is weakening. If you are going to take credit for something, pick inflation, not the economy.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by blankall

Lol....wtf is this? No. What you are doing is not working. No. You don't have a plan.

Yikes, really?

I know I'm excited that Canada is dropping rates the fastest because our economy is weaker than our peers. Great job!

[powderjunkie]

rates down = bad

rates up = bad

rates same = bad