[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Also these deep playoff runs factor into the hard miles on these two. One has to think that fatigue may set in next season especially when you consider the age of the overall roster.

Age of the roster, along with the fact that they have removed most of the guys that do the heavy lifting physically: Desharnais, Ceci, Foegele, McLeod, Holloway, and we'll see what Kane looks like this year.

You need guys to dole out the physicality, and to do the physical battling. Otherwise, the stars have to handle too much of it themselves. IMO, the biggest difference between last year's Oilers and the previous several, was the fact that they could more than hold their own, physically. Now they have replaced those guys with Arvidsson and Skinner! More points!

I suspect that this year is going to be much more taxing on McDavid and Draisaitl than last year was - and they looked exhausted in the final. Can they do it all - and more - again this year? Big challenge.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by VilleN

You definitely get better value with younger players, I don't necessarily agree that you are paying for past production. I think you are paying a player with a lot of leverage vs. a player with very little. In both cases you are looking at their resumes to determine salary.

The result is the same, no matter how you justify it.

And again, I don't see how a team has much choice, it is simply the price of success.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Age of the roster, along with the fact that they have removed most of the guys that do the heavy lifting physically: Desharnais, Ceci, Foegele, McLeod, Holloway, and we'll see what Kane looks like this year.

You need guys to dole out the physicality, and to do the physical battling. Otherwise, the stars have to handle too much of it themselves. IMO, the biggest difference between last year's Oilers and the previous several, was the fact that they could more than hold their own, physically. Now they have replaced those guys with Arvidsson and Skinner! More points!

I suspect that this year is going to be much more taxing on McDavid and Draisaitl than last year was - and they looked exhausted in the final. Can they do it all - and more - again this year? Big challenge.

The exhausting part is why I am a big fan of the Olympics and (for McDavid) the Four Nations. Play as much hockey as possible. Hoping like hell the Oilers get Hyman, RNH and Bouchard on team Canada. Get Ekholm on the Swedes. Get as many players as possible in the Four Nations. And do the same for the Olympics.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The exhausting part is why I am a big fan of the Olympics and (for McDavid) the Four Nations. Play as much hockey as possible. Hoping like hell the Oilers get Hyman, RNH and Bouchard on team Canada. Get Ekholm on the Swedes. Get as many players as possible in the Four Nations. And do the same for the Olympics.

Yeah, great point. While most guys will be getting a couple weeks off, half of the over-rated Oiler roster will be plying more hockey.

[InternationalVillager]

I would put Bedard currently at $12Mish - depends on his play over the next couple of years.

Draisaitl is still getting paid $8.5M over this upcoming season. He has vastly outperformed his last contract.

Why is he not allowed to recoup some of that value on his next deal with the team? It seems only a fair practice.

If you did business the way you are suggesting, player agents would blacklist you and players would request trades after their ELCs expired.

No player wants the feeling of being used and then thrown away after an organization has "used up their prime". They're also human beings who deserve to be treated with respect for the legacy that they are helping to build with your franchise which ultimately flows right down to an owner's team valuation.

I'll give another example - why are the Golden State Warriors going to pay Age 38 Stephen Curry - $62.6M - the most in his career and maybe the NBA as of right now? Are they stupid? It's pretty clear he's not going to be worth that contract.

[McG]

Some of the points are a bit circuitous but I’ve definitely adjusted my perspective a little from the debates in this thread.

Interesting to see how others would build their franchises.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I would put Bedard currently at $12Mish - depends on his play over the next couple of years.

Draisaitl is still getting paid $8.5M over this upcoming season. He has vastly outperformed his last contract.

Why is he not allowed to recoup some of that value on his next deal with the team? It seems only a fair practice.

If you did business the way you are suggesting, player agents would blacklist you and players would request trades after their ELCs expired.

No player wants the feeling of being used and then thrown away after an organization has "used up their prime". They're also human beings who deserve to be treated with respect for the legacy that they are helping to build with your franchise which ultimately flows right down to an owner's team valuation.

I'll give another example - why are the Golden State Warriors going to pay Age 38 Stephen Curry - $62.6M - the most in his career and maybe the NBA as of right now? Are they stupid? It's pretty clear he's not going to be worth that contract.

Bedard’s age 21-29 seasons are worth $12M to you and Draisaitl’s age 30-37 are worth $14M? That’s the joke of the week.

Yes, they are human beings, which means they should understand their worth. And this is no slight to Draisaitl who absolutely slayed it on this contract. I know 7 teams in the Pacific Division who have zero complaints.

If you want a legacy then take Backlund contracts when the time comes.

I hope paying for that legacy is worth it for Edmonton. Actually I don’t.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by butterfly

McDavid's prime is almost over if it isn't already. They had arguably the two best players in the league and failed.

I'd have a really tough time thinking about whether or not to let Draisaitl play it out in a contract year and go for it one last time, or just reboot it now. When are you ever going to have the opportunity to get a fortune of premium picks and prospects like this ever again? But I must admit they have a legitimate look at it this year, so that'd be the decision. They won the Cup after they traded Gretzky which was supposed to be the apocalypse.

Buying their 30s is a non-starter for me. It's a sucker's bet.

The idea is to get players like this (and Nugent-Hopkins, who I was quite impressed with these last playoffs) and give them 3, 4, 5, 6 chances together. They did that and it didn't work for a ton of reasons, primarily their failure to build a good defense. So reboot it.

I think this punts too early. The next 2 years there team will have a better than average chance at winning the cup. To sell now and not ice a team that is cup contending seems foolish. Your two years early.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think this punts too early. The next 2 years there team will have a better than average chance at winning the cup. To sell now and not ice a team that is cup contending seems foolish. Your two years early.

Would you say that if Los Angeles beat them in the first round? Or if the Canucks didn’t choke?

Just curious.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Would you say that if Los Angeles beat them in the first round? Or if the Canucks didn’t choke?

Just curious.

Even if they lost in the first round it's likely the right move to sign the guy.

Long discussion about Draisaitl and where he ranks league wide. I think McDavid helps him into the top 5 discussion where maybe he's be 8-10 ... but if you have two of those guys at the same time you keep them and fire your shot.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Also these deep playoff runs factor into the hard miles on these two. One has to think that fatigue may set in next season especially when you consider the age of the overall roster.

I think fatigue has already set it, as both McLotteryball and Pissy were complete no-shows in the most important game of their lives.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Even if they lost in the first round it's likely the right move to sign the guy.

Long discussion about Draisaitl and where he ranks league wide. I think McDavid helps him into the top 5 discussion where maybe he's be 8-10 ... but if you have two of those guys at the same time you keep them and fire your shot.

100% you do, just as the Penguins did (difference being, actual cups, but that's just details). It's a losing proposition as the years roll on, but it is the only path.

Both things can be true - right thing for the organization, and ####ty contract, over time.

[SuperMatt18]

McDavid is the driver IMO

Like Crosby he will be productive and still elite into his late 30's - so you don't punt on him.

But I do think there is a discussion around Draisaitl. Is he a top 5 player in the league?...or is he a top 20 player in the league that looks like a top 5 player when he's playing next to the clear cut number 1 player in the league?

There are times where I think they are both top 5 players, but then I look at some of the stats and he's just not that guy when he's not playing with McDavid.

Regular Season (21-24 Even Strength)
With McDavid: 1474 TOI, 57.6% CF, 58.1% xGF, 59.3% GF
W/O McDavid: 2655 TOI, 50.3% CF, 51.5% xGF, 53.2% GF
97 w/o 29: 2716 TOI, 56.2% CF, 60.9% xGF, 58.1% GF

Playoffs (21-24 Even Strength)
With McDavid: 431 TOI, 58.6% CF, 54.9% xGF, 60.8% GF
W/O McDavid: 495 TOI, 44.8% CF, 46.2% xGF, 39.0% GF
97 w/o 29: 563 TOI, 53.4% CF, 56.7% xGF, 56.9% GF

And looking at actual points per 60 for the last 3 seasons:

5v5
1-Mackinnon: 3.22
2) Matthews: 3.01
3) Marner: 2.98
4) McDavid: 2.93
5) Tkachuk:L 2.89

20) Draisaitl: 2.52

Powerplay
1) McDavid: 10.85
2) Kucherov: 9.51

3) Draisaitl: 9.48

All Situations
1) McDavid: 4.69
2) Kucherov: 4.5
3) MacKinnon: 4.22
4) Draisaitl: 3.97
5) Tkachuk: 3.95

I do think there is a universe where trading Draisaitl potentially makes them a better team. He's a top 20 player that get bumped into the conversation of being a top 5 player because he plays with McDavid and one of the most effective PPs in NHL history.

For example if the Rangers offered you Chytil, Lafreniere, K.Miller, 2 1sts or something crazy like that...I think the Oilers are potentially better off.

But the kicker is if McDavid says "I'm only listening to your pitch to stay if Draisaitl stays" then you pretty much have to give Draisaitl the money. Remember there is a reason that McDavids' former agent is now the President, McDavid is driving the bus here and you do whatever you can to keep McDavid.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Bedard’s age 21-29 seasons are worth $12M to you and Draisaitl’s age 30-37 are worth $14M? That’s the joke of the week.

That's how the CBA works.

There is only one negotiator for Bedard - the team that drafted him - so he has to sign maybe a little below market value.

If Draisaitl went to open market, there would be multiple teams lining up to offer him that contract.

It's not the same.

[dustygoon]

The oil did what they had to do. I just laugh at Drai going for as much money as he can.

[Robbob]

Yeah the Oilers had to sign him. I think the silver lining for a Flames fan is that even though they managed to sign him, their team build is lacking, there is nothing coming down the pipe to support their stars. Even if they manage to hit on a late pick (have gone decades without doing it), it takes that type of player around 3-4 years from their draft year. The clock is ticking very loudly.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

The oil did what they had to do. I just laugh at Drai going for as much money as he can.

He has numbers in the realm of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid so he's going to get paid in that realm as a % of cap.

Also- why people are glossing over the fact that he VASTLY outperformed his last $8.5M AAV contract so obviously he is recouping some of that from his employer.

Draisaitl is a beast of a player. Any team would be lucky to have him.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

100% you do, just as the Penguins did (difference being, actual cups, but that's just details). It's a losing proposition as the years roll on, but it is the only path.

Both things can be true - right thing for the organization, and ####ty contract, over time.

Here is the thing. I used the Blackhawks as an example as well. They all won cups.

Crosby and Malkin actually didn't have terrible deals. Kane/Toews counted 22M against the cap and the Hawks never won a round again.

Pittsburgh also had some players in the pipeline. Chicaho was mismanaged and the guy who did that is the guy running the Oilers now.

It's going to be hard to fill the roster around those guys.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think this punts too early. The next 2 years there team will have a better than average chance at winning the cup. To sell now and not ice a team that is cup contending seems foolish. Your two years early.

Exactly the point. They still have 2 more years before any of this comes to roost. After that, it will get much harder to win a Cup.

[InternationalVillager]

There is one other thing that no one has mentioned.

This is a business. McDavid and Draisaitl sell tickets, jerseys, merchandise, ad revenue, tv deals etc.

The franchise is not going to let their cash cows go over a few million dollars.

Stanley Cup or not. These two have inflated the value of the Oilers for ownership and brought in a #### ton of money.

Draisaitl is worth way more than $14M per year in enterprise value.