[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They still could - I actually don't think this guarantees Drai says in Edmonton all 8 years.

I think this lets them go after the cup for this season, maybe next season, they see what happens with McDavid and depending what happens there is still the potential Draisaitl is moved where he wants to go at some point in the future and it allows the Oilers to get a return.

Unfortunately all this means is that Drai doesn't walk as a UFA and the Oilers get nothing in return for him

Honest question, when was the last time a Top 5 paid player was traded? Given he's on the mid-back of his contract, and obviously benefiting from McDavid.

Salary would need to go back, which is a loss of production or defense, unless it's a salary dump. So maybe if Oilers can pull off its all for a few mid round picks?

I just don't know of a comparable situation that has happened with the highest paid player or (in future) near highest in a cap world. The suitors would be small, and the return would be poor to make work.

[McG]

Money and term not a surprise. This contract was entirely contingent on pissy and his willingness to stay, with or without Mavi.

It’s the same team as yesterday; literally the same. Next season though, it will be a more expensive team.

Is it an overpayment today? It’s the one that got it signed so probably fair value when pen hit paper.

Dirty player, good finisher, diver, great statistics historically especially on the current contract.

I do think this helps to sell season tickets, but the team isn’t better today and for the extra money, just like all teams, they would love to add a $6 million per year player instead of a contract that doesn’t even start until next season. That’s the price though.

If you are in the film or tv industry, maybe more production moves to Edmonton.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

His poor wife.

[Locke]

This contract shant age well methinks.

Big money for Post-Apex player.

[Doctorfever]

Sort of unrelated, but what does a Nurse buyout look like?

[blankall]

The Oilers were kind of stuck. I really don't think a trade was an option, as when you have a player like McDavid, you have to go all in every year. The biggest kick in the nuts will be if McDavid walks.

That being said...yikes. The guy is turning 30 in a couple of months. Last year was his worse year in 5 years. Odds are he's already at the point where he's slowly going downhill. I'm not saying that Draisaitl's play will fall off a cliff, but he'll probably cruise around where he's at for 2-3 more years and then begin a significant decline by age 34. I don't see him ever being the 120+ point guy again, unless he's totally stapled to McDavid. In which case, he's taking opportunities from other players.

The issue was with the contract planning here. Being forced to re-sign Draisaitl at an extension that starts at 30 going on 31, was the worst case scenario. It allowed Draisaitl to bend the team over for the maximum possible payout to age 39.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

$104 million of $112 million in salary is signing bonuses making the contract buyout proof

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831001895139237988

I think this signing bonus makes this contract really risky for the Oilers. You see quite often Draisaitl’s GAF meter pretty darn low. Pretty tough to get the engine running for this guy when he already banks $104MM as a signing bonus. Draisaitl isn’t exactly a leader or a warrior, one of the first to fold his tent and mail in the team game…..

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

$104 million of $112 million in salary is signing bonuses making the contract buyout proof

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831001895139237988

I'm sure with the annual spring injuries he plays through this won't present aaany issues.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Locke

This contract shant age well methinks.

Big money for Post-Apex player.

Reduced incentive + older than McDonkey at the start of the contract.

I'm sure it will go great.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Sort of unrelated, but what does a Nurse buyout look like?

Caphit:
25/26 $290k
26/27 $8.290 mil
27/28 $9.09 mil
28/29 $9.09 mil
29/30 $9.09 mil
30/31 $1.04 mil
31/32 $1.04 mil
32/33 $1.04 mil
33/34 $1.04 mil
34/35 $1.04 mil


Very little cap savings outside 25/26. This is mostly thanks to Nurse's back half of the contract being paid out largely by signing bonuses.

Better off trying to find a material breach and terminating the contract.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's really hard to say. He should always have good value on the powerplay but if he loses a step or two, things could change fast. He did look a little slower and less effective last season and the Oilers have rode him and McDavid hard over the years so his legs have a lot of miles on them. I don't think this contract will age as well as McDavid's who's always going to be a good skater even if he loses a step.

I think McDavid is a phenomenal player but my embarassing-in-the-future take is that Draisaitl’s game will translate better to his twilight years than McDavid’s. Have seen it in multiple sports where athletes who rely on speed and athleticism get hit harder in their later years.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

I think this signing bonus makes this contract really risky for the Oilers. You see quite often Draisaitl’s GAF meter pretty darn low. Pretty tough to get the engine running for this guy when he already banks $104MM as a signing bonus. Draisaitl isn’t exactly a leader or a warrior, one of the first to fold his tent and mail in the team game…..

I'm not 100% sure why players do this. I get that having money upfront is great, but a player like Draisaitl might have been better off encouraging a buy out. It's going to be a miserable last few years for him if he's collecting $14/year post 35, sucks at hockey and the entire city hates his guts. You'd think he'd want the buyout and then go on a cup hunt or victory lap in Europe.

[YyjFlames]

A little off topic, but these highest paid contracts always remind me that sports' contracts, and sports' revenue in general, are growing quite a bit faster than inflation.

Iginla's first contract after the lockout -- $7m a year, which I believe was the highest at the time -- is worth $11.3m in today's dollars. And this is after a few years of pretty slow growth even though inflation was really high. I think we'll see average values grow more quickly unless we hit a recession (People are pegging McDavid at $16m, but he could possibly push $17m or hold out for a max $18m deal next year).

I wonder when, or if, salaries will come back to regular inflation growth... I guess it probably won't because there's a scarcity of NHL teams so revenues and wages will regularly outstrip common inflation.

So... enjoy "cheap" saddledome tickets while you can!

Alright, back to talking about how awful the Oilers are.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

How long until he's Edmonton's Huberdeau?

(Even though they already have that in Nurse)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Will it be even worse news for the Oilers when they sign McDavid in your opinion? Like is today bad news for the Oilers and McDavid signing next summer will be even worse news?

Chicago signing Toews and Kane was "great news" too

With the cap things aren't so simple. They are paying 5.5M more for what will almost certainly be less when they already have depth issues. If you have an argument on how this improves a team that hasn't been good enough to win I'm all ears.

I mean build your team with those cap hits...Its not being a Flames homer the Oilers will likely be substantially worse in 2 years.

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

A little off topic, but these highest paid contracts always remind me that sports' contracts, and sports' revenue in general, are growing quite a bit faster than inflation.

Iginla's first contract after the lockout -- $7m a year, which I believe was the highest at the time -- is worth $11.3m in today's dollars. And this is after a few years of pretty slow growth even though inflation was really high. I think we'll see average values grow more quickly unless we hit a recession (People are pegging McDavid at $16m, but he could possibly push $17m or hold out for a max $18m deal next year).

I wonder when, or if, salaries will come back to regular inflation growth... I guess it probably won't because there's a scarcity of NHL teams so revenues and wages will regularly outstrip common inflation.

So... enjoy "cheap" saddledome tickets while you can!

Alright, back to talking about how awful the Oilers are.

Mario Lemieux made $11.35m in 1996-97, equivalent to $22.04m in 2023.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...yers_by_season

[blankall]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

A little off topic, but these highest paid contracts always remind me that sports' contracts, and sports' revenue in general, are growing quite a bit faster than inflation.

Iginla's first contract after the lockout -- $7m a year, which I believe was the highest at the time -- is worth $11.3m in today's dollars. And this is after a few years of pretty slow growth even though inflation was really high. I think we'll see average values grow more quickly unless we hit a recession (People are pegging McDavid at $16m, but he could possibly push $17m or hold out for a max $18m deal next year).

I wonder when, or if, salaries will come back to regular inflation growth... I guess it probably won't because there's a scarcity of NHL teams so revenues and wages will regularly outstrip common inflation.

So... enjoy "cheap" saddledome tickets while you can!

Alright, back to talking about how awful the Oilers are.

Theoretically the audience is growing, so you'd expect revenues, and contracts with increased revenues, to grow faster than inflation.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Reduced incentive + older than McDonkey at the start of the contract.

I'm sure it will go great.

Plus...I always find it interesting when a player goes and makes a contract completely buy-out proof and that teams agree to it.

If I were in a negotiating position and the player and/or Agent came to me with a contract that was completely buyout-proof? I think I'd say something like:

"Well, 'buyout-proof' has value, so that AAV has to come down. I can't give you something of value without receiving value in return. We value you at $14m but you want this, you want that and the other things, no problem, but then then AAV has to come down accordingly as to how we value those options."

Not to mention, just the Optics of that contract. That GAF level is going to plunge into the sewer near the end of that contract.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

How long until he's Edmonton's Huberdeau?

(Even though they already have that in Nurse)

I don't see him putting up more than 80 points at 34+. That would be after year 3 of the new contract.

[Demaeon]

Originally Posted by blankall

I'm not 100% sure why players do this. I get that having money upfront is great, but a player like Draisaitl might have been better off encouraging a buy out. It's going to be a miserable last few years for him if he's collecting $14/year post 35, sucks at hockey and the entire city hates his guts. You'd think he'd want the buyout and then go on a cup hunt or victory lap in Europe.

But wouldn't he be giving up 1/3 of the remaining money owed in a buyout situation?