American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Mathgod]

Post from January when I was clearly "not seeing what everyone else was seeing".

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...67#post8970267

The timeline was simply that once Biden got the nomination, I didn't think it was possible for a change in candidate to happen. Therefore I didn't see what good it would do to keep #### talking Biden and accusing him of mentally declining.

It turns out that Biden was willing to drop out of the race. Thank goodness he did the right thing. I'm stunned that it happened but very happy that it did.

[The Fonz]

Biden was not willing to drop out of the race. He only did so because he was more or less forced, due to so many people talking #### about him and his mental decline, which you didn't see the benefit of.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

Today's update sounds grim:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Biden was not willing to drop out of the race. He only did so because he was more or less forced, due to so many people talking #### about him and his mental decline, which you didn't see the benefit of.

He dropped because of consistently bad polling numbers and donors bailing. Nevertheless, he could have stayed on if he wanted to. There was no mechanism for directly forcing him out (except maybe for the 25th amendment, but that process would have been difficult and complicated).

If there was a benefit of talking negatively about Biden on CP, please tell me what it was. I keep hearing that nothing we post on CP matters because no one in the US reads CP...

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by cral12

Today's update sounds grim:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

Yeah, Harris doesn't have it in the bag by any means but I also wouldn't call that update grim, still showing a toss up. PA continues to be a struggle for her.

[KelVarnsen]

https://www.undertheradarmag.com/new..._to_be_a_kamal

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

He dropped because of consistently bad polling numbers and donors bailing. Nevertheless, he could have stayed on if he wanted to. There was no mechanism for directly forcing him out (except maybe for the 25th amendment, but that process would have been difficult and complicated).

If there was a benefit of talking negatively about Biden on CP, please tell me what it was. I keep hearing that nothing we post on CP matters because no one in the US reads CP...

So you weren’t taking issue with people criticizing broadly, just on CP?

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

So you weren’t taking issue with people criticizing broadly, just on CP?

Before the debate I was under the impression that there was no possibility of Biden dropping out of the race. Admittedly I was wrong about that. But after the debate, I did call for him to drop out, and you can look back into the thread if you want to confirm that.

I'm just asking for some consistency. Either things we post on CP are generally irrelevant to American audiences, or they aren't.

As for Kamala, safe to say she is definitely the one going up against Trump this election. It's time for every American who won't vote for Trump to unite behind Harris. If you want to say CP is irrelevant, fine, I disagree with you but I can appreciate your point. But Americans taking runs at Kamala over Gaza, aren't doing the people of Gaza any favors. A Trump victory won't mean any lives saved in Gaza. Not going to repeat the discussion at length, as we've already been through it.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I’ve seen a few Americans on Twitter point north and wish they had short campaigns like in Canada.

Or like basically anywhere else in the world…

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by cral12

Today's update sounds grim:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

Only if you've been celebrating inevitable victory. Basically nothing has changed since it became a coin flip. We'd hoped the momentum would see her surge past Trump and make it a 60 40 race and it looked for a while like that might happen, but her momentum stalled out before the convention and it's been like this ever since, more or less. The concerning part is the slight move toward Trump in PA, but given it's slight and it's 3 months out it'snot cause for serious concern yet... I'm just worried about a bad news cycle.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Only if you've been celebrating inevitable victory. Basically nothing has changed since it became a coin flip. We'd hoped the momentum would see her surge past Trump and make it a 60 40 race and it looked for a while like that might happen, but her momentum stalled out before the convention and it's been like this ever since, more or less. The concerning part is the slight move toward Trump in PA, but given it's slight and it's 3 months out it'snot cause for serious concern yet... I'm just worried about a bad news cycle.

She's still trending upwards in most polls and most battleground states. I think expecting a giant surge was probably unrealistic, but considering where we were before Biden dropped to where we are now, I think it's a positive sign for things going forward.

[activeStick]

I haven't watched it yet, but saw that Harris did an interview on CNN yesterday with Dana Bash? Anyone watch it?

[devo22]

haven't seen it yet either, but consensus seems to be she did well?!

[Bonded]

I think the interview went decently. Not sure it helped much but it didn’t hurt her like the GOP was hoping

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by rubecube

She's still trending upwards in most polls and most battleground states. I think expecting a giant surge was probably unrealistic, but considering where we were before Biden dropped to where we are now, I think it's a positive sign for things going forward.

Not to mention this election is a unicorn and will be nearly impossible to accurately predict. Dems thinking they need every last vote is a good thing though. Trump has a ceiling, higher the turnout the better Harris does.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Only if you've been celebrating inevitable victory. Basically nothing has changed since it became a coin flip. We'd hoped the momentum would see her surge past Trump and make it a 60 40 race and it looked for a while like that might happen, but her momentum stalled out before the convention and it's been like this ever since, more or less. The concerning part is the slight move toward Trump in PA, but given it's slight and it's 3 months out it'snot cause for serious concern yet... I'm just worried about a bad news cycle.

Over the past couple of days I've had a sinking feeling in my stomach and I'm agreeing with your take more now... Trump is now a slight favorite to win PA which makes Kamala's path to 270 complicated... she will have to win one of GA/NC and one of AZ/NV to make up the lost electoral votes from PA.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Not to mention this election is a unicorn and will be nearly impossible to accurately predict. Dems thinking they need every last vote is a good thing though. Trump has a ceiling, higher the turnout the better Harris does.

Yeah, I just wish they'd stop trying to triangulate to the right to capture Republican votes. If you're a Republican voter who already hasn't decided to not for Trump, nothing the Dems are promising is going to convince you otherwise.

[direwolf]

Hasn't Pennsylvania been traditionally a blue state? Why the f*** are they leaning towards Trump in this election? I know he won it in 2016, but you'd think after all the reprehensible bulls*** he's pulled over the last few years, people would finally wake up. I guess not.

This is why I still have very little faith in the American electorate. People are incredibly dumb. Harris and Walz will need to campaign like crazy in that state over the next two months, and hopefully the voters there will start to see the light.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think the interview went decently. Not sure it helped much but it didn’t hurt her like the GOP was hoping

That's good to hear. I know criticism of the Dems is offensive for some, but I'm still nervous about her performance in things when she doesn't have a script to follow based on many interviews I've seen her in ever since she became VP. I've said this many times, but I don't know what happened to the Kamala Harris of 10 years ago when she was taking down CEOs in Congress with ease and skill.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by direwolf

Hasn't Pennsylvania been traditionally a blue state? Why the f*** are they leaning towards Trump in this election? I know he won it in 2016, but you'd think after all the reprehensible bulls*** he's pulled over the last few years, people would finally wake up. I guess not.

This is why I still have very little faith in the American electorate. People are incredibly dumb. Harris and Walz will need to campaign like crazy in that state over the next two months, and hopefully the voters there will start to see the light.

Seems to be pretty purple. Very close margin and they tend to alternate between the red team and blue team at the national and state level.