France Election Fallout

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy14

Should note that the person giving the left wing coalition its marching orders, Melanchon, is an ultra socialist that anyone outside his coalition finds repulsive lol

What do you consider an "ultra socialist?"

Anyways, it's not surprising that Macron would rather hand power to the far right than give into the left. It's a tale as old as time. Cut a liberal and a fascist bleeds.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by rubecube

What do you consider an "ultra socialist?"

Even the Jacobin has called Melanchon’s program ‘radical.’ If he’s not an ultra-socialist, then we’re into no true Scotsman territory here and there’s no such thing as ultra-socialists.

Melanchon expressed satisfaction over the Russian occupation of Crimea, called anti-Russian sentiment “American propaganda,” and wants to pull out of NATO. He’s a Euro-skeptic who would openly defy many EU treaties. He wants to end nuclear power. He supported the yellow vest protests. He’s one of the few French politicians who hasn’t condemned the Oct 7 attack by Hamas. As recently as 2019 he expressed admiration for Hugo Chavez.

Temperamentally, he routinely goes on tilt, making personal attacks on journalists, academics, and other civilians. He was handed a three month sentence for threatening and shoving police officers who were searching his campaign office over breach of campaign funding laws. This isn’t Bernie Sanders we’re talking about here.

Originally Posted by rubecube

Anyways, it's not surprising that Macron would rather hand power to the far right than give into the left. It's a tale as old as time. Cut a liberal and a fascist bleeds.

So now Macron is a fascist? The person who’s pulling every electoral trick in the book to try to keep the far right out of power?

[Fuzzy14]

Too add to Cliff's post, he was a troskyist in his youth, and only seems to have moderated his positions slightly over the years, in my view, to make himself more electable. His most recent platform called for a 100% income tax on earnings over 360,000 euros a year and inheritance taxes of 100% on sums over 12 million euros. He has also advocated for the creolization of french culture, in the country that probably has (or at least historially has had) the strongest national identity in the western world.

He's not quite a communist, but don't worry, i'm sure he keeps his copy of Marx safely in his bedside table.

[Fuzzy14]

Which makes sense.

I dislike the concept of the 'Political Line' personally, I think its too simplistic and not able to really illustrate nuance but for the purpose of discussion works well enough.

Furthermore? I think European 'Far-Right' is very different from North American 'Far-Right.'

The European version is NUTS.

And this should be concerning. As I've said before, Eastern Europe is essentially the wild west, they like their 'strong men' and whatever, you just shrug them off to the side because they have few resources and even less money and they're far away. No problem. Let them fight amongst each other.

Italy? More concerning but they do have a history of light Fascism so there is that bedrock where a case can be made, albeit this 'Strong Man' is a woman.

Poland? Thats a bit of problem because they are the 'Most Conquered Country in Europe' and apparently thats not the most popular hat to wear and they're tired of it. So they are plowing big dollars into their military. Led by someone who is, at best, a bit of a wild-card.

England is just a complete mess. Between Brexit and the revolving door of leaders? Forget about England.

But France? One of the most classically Liberal societies in Europe? This should never have even been a question.

I dislike the 'Slippery slope' metaphor for a variety of reasons. But guys...we're at the top...and we're slipping.

You can see it.

The comparison and contrasting of the far right parties in different european countries is actually an interesting exercise.

We tend to look at the far right in Europe and lump them in with all together, mostly because it's convenient to do so, but each of those european countries has an interesting history of far right movements that tend to be motivated by different factors.

The FN has an interesting history, that in my view shows a transition from classic far right quackery under Le Pen Sr. to a more main stream political party today that is responding to unique social pressures in France. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the FN saw its entry into the main stream before most of the other far right parties in Europe, primarily because of the unique situation in France.

[Itse]

FN also has a long history of being super friendly with and heavily supported by Putin.

Besides Brexit and Trump, they're one of the more successful of Kremlins new cold war projects.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

FN also has a long history of being super friendly with and heavily supported by Putin.

Well yeah. Far left populists and far right populists have a lot in common. In the case of France: Russophile, pro Gilets Jaunes, anti-globalism, anti-NATO, EU skepticism.

[activeStick]

France has their new Prime Minister, former Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...nier-as-new-pm

[activeStick]

Aaaaand, the French government has collapsed now as Barnier lost a no-confidence vote.

French government toppled in no-confidence vote, deepening political crisis

https://ground.news/article/french-g...newsroom-share

The French government has been toppled in a vote of no confidence Wednesday, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty.

A total of 331 lawmakers from both the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the far-right National Rally (RN) supported a no-confidence motion in the country’s lower house, far exceeding the 288 votes needed to pass the motion.

Motions had been tabled by both the left and rightwing blocs on Monday after Prime Minister Michel Barnier used special constitutional powers to force a social security budget bill through Parliament without a vote.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/04/fren...pposition.html

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Locke

In all seriousness however we really should be paying more attention to this.

France at the moment is a Canary in our Coal mine. The last couple died already and we were too stupid to pay attention (Looking at Italy and Eastern Europe and side-eyeing America).

'Strong Men' and Right-Wing is getting back into positions of power.

Why?

Because we have a lot of fairly Liberal democracies whose policies are causing more problems than they solve and creating degrees of unrest. Thats typically when people start getting upset and the loudmouths get a platform that is listened to.

Its a tale as old as time.

- Inflation is rampant
- Jobs are scarce
- Cost of living is becoming unaffordable
- Housing shortages
- Immigration is unchecked
- Homelessness is becoming a problem
- Drug epidemics
- Land Wars in Europe and Middle East

Guess what this is going to lead to? Because we've seen this show before.

And unfortunately, its real easy (not necessarily true) to point fingers at the Liberal Democracies that essentially either actively or passively allowed it to happen.

Like I said. We've seen this movie already.

Funny how most of the issues are you mentioned can all be traced back to a single problem.

Allowing immigration, migrants and refugees to enter on a much higher rate than what the country can handle. Makes every problem 100x worse.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

Funny how most of the issues are you mentioned can all be traced back to a single problem.

Allowing immigration, migrants and refugees to enter on a much higher rate than what the country can handle. Makes every problem 100x worse.

That problem is downstream of the demographic decline problem.

The welfare state has only been around for about 70 years. When it started, there were 8 working taxpayers for each 1 dependent. Today, most developed countries are at around 3 to 1, and the ratio is still dropping.

No government in any country has figured out how to address that pitiless math in a way that voters will accept. If voters won’t tolerate mass immigration, something else will have to give - substantial cuts to public services, substantial increases to taxes on working citizens, or both.

[Azure]

Please don't conflate normal immigration or immigration + 10% to make up for birth rates going down with what is going on in most countries.

Mass importing, which is basically what it has become, of immigrants, migrants, temporary workers, students and refugees all on the taxpayer dime with no social services, jobs or housing setup to take care of them or the actual existing people in the country is blowing 70 years of everything out of the water. That is why we are seeing some drastic electoral changes, and it has nothing to do with 'wow I'm going to vote for this guy cause he's a create candidate' and more 'I am pissed off, and this guy is getting the boot.'

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Azure

Funny how most of the issues are you mentioned can all be traced back to a single problem.

Allowing immigration, migrants and refugees to enter on a much higher rate than what the country can handle. Makes every problem 100x worse.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

That problem is downstream of the demographic decline problem.

The welfare state has only been around for about 70 years. When it started, there were 8 working taxpayers for each 1 dependent. Today, most developed countries are at around 3 to 1, and the ratio is still dropping.

No government in any country has figured out how to address that pitiless math in a way that voters will accept. If voters won’t tolerate mass immigration, something else will have to give - substantial cuts to public services, substantial increases to taxes on working citizens, or both.

Well, yes and no.

See, in many other threads I'm always banging on about 'Sustainability' and unchecked immigration is a very serious problem because it over-taxes the existing infrastructure and France has proven this in many, many different ways.

Few jobs for immigrants to do, so now they've given up everything, come to a new place that is expensive to live in with no method of being able to afford it.

Then there is ghetto-ization. Many of these immigrant cultures group together which means that dissent can spread rapidly.

Further, the disillusionment of youth. There are few things more dangerous than idle and unemployed youth.

Think about it practically.

"Leave your old life behind! Come to our Country! We have no jobs for you, theres no money, theres no place to live and you cant afford anything and our over-run health system cant take care of you! Come on in!!"

Oh immigrants dont integrate into our Culture tho!!

No...ya screwed 'em. You lied to them. Regardless of race, religion, creed or colour, you screwed them over and they are rightly going to be pissed off about it.

Source: France.

[Azure]

Yeah, its literally worse because we actually have been lying to many disadvantaged people telling them life in Canada is great when its not.

Its complete BS, and people are rightly pissed off about it. We are helping no one by thinking we can handle all these people.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Azure

Yeah, its literally worse because we actually have been lying to many disadvantaged people telling them life in Canada is great when its not.

Its complete BS, and people are rightly pissed off about it. We are helping no one by thinking we can handle all these people.

No. Its worse than that.

Guess what happens when someone has been lied to, is pissed off and has nothing to lose? That person rapidly becomes very dangerous.

And then through the media or Politics we blame immigrants for being unruly law-breakers. Well yeah...we didn't give them much choice.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Azure

Please don't conflate normal immigration or immigration + 10% to make up for birth rates going down with what is going on in most countries.

Mass importing, which is basically what it has become, of immigrants, migrants, temporary workers, students and refugees all on the taxpayer dime with no social services, jobs or housing setup to take care of them or the actual existing people in the country is blowing 70 years of everything out of the water. That is why we are seeing some drastic electoral changes, and it has nothing to do with 'wow I'm going to vote for this guy cause he's a create candidate' and more 'I am pissed off, and this guy is getting the boot.'

What does that have to do with France? France has a basically stagnant population, is only bringing in about 300K people a year, and the foreign-born population share has been essentially identical for the last 60 years at about 10% (so 90% of residents were born in France). There is no "mass importation" in France.

The tensions in France aren't from immigration; they're from people reacting negatively to the changing demographics of the country stemming from disparate birth rates among different ethnic groups.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

That problem is downstream of the demographic decline problem.

The welfare state has only been around for about 70 years. When it started, there were 8 working taxpayers for each 1 dependent. Today, most developed countries are at around 3 to 1, and the ratio is still dropping.

No government in any country has figured out how to address that pitiless math in a way that voters will accept. If voters won’t tolerate mass immigration, something else will have to give - substantial cuts to public services, substantial increases to taxes on working citizens, or both.

Of course it's not just that. It's also billionaires and corporations who are perpetually receiving tax cuts at the expense of middle and lower class tax rates, services, and wealth.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Locke

No. Its worse than that.

Guess what happens when someone has been lied to, is pissed off and has nothing to lose? That person rapidly becomes very dangerous.

And then through the media or Politics we blame immigrants for being unruly law-breakers. Well yeah...we didn't give them much choice.

This is true as well, and increasing crime rates are not for no reason at all.

Not sure what else we expected.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by SebC

Of course it's not just that. It's also billionaires and corporations who are perpetually receiving tax cuts at the expense of middle and lower class tax rates, services, and wealth.

Kind of plays into the same issue.

Temporary foreign workers are also low cost workers, and help to increase profits for the rich.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What does that have to do with France? France has a basically stagnant population, is only bringing in about 300K people a year, and the foreign-born population share has been essentially identical for the last 60 years at about 10% (so 90% of residents were born in France). There is no "mass importation" in France.

The tensions in France aren't from immigration; they're from people reacting negatively to the changing demographics of the country stemming from disparate birth rates among different ethnic groups.

One might argue there problems are from a lack of immigration or at least not seeking the consequences of zero population growth on the tax and welfare system.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Of course it's not just that. It's also billionaires and corporations who are perpetually receiving tax cuts at the expense of middle and lower class tax rates, services, and wealth.

Do you have evidence to suggest that in France this is true?

I mean spending as a fucntion of gdp by the government has been increasing over the last 50 years

https://ourworldindata.org/government-spending

This does not address the debt financing of this spending or how progressive taxation is but in general I think it provides evidence that a significant portion of the problem is a demographic one. If it was as you suggest about who receives tax breaks and services then the government spending should be flat while who pays for it would change.