Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[Gaudfather]

This never gets old!

Matthew Tkachuk once again reaffirms his love for Calgary and hate for Edmonton.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1828456326852161983

[SuperMatt18]

The question remains "What is a discount?"

Mackinnon: $12.6M x 8 (15.3% of the cap when signed)
Matthews: $13.25M x 4 (15.9% of the salary cap when signed)

So let's put Draisaitl somewhere in their range of 15.5% to 16% of the salary cap, and arguably I think you could say "that's fair value" or even a discount if you think Mackinnon took a discount and Matthews took less AAV because it's only a 4 year term and he left himself room for another big contract.

16% of the cap is $14M
15.5% of the cap is $13.6M

There is no way Draisaitl is taking less than that IMO, he probably wants $110 x 8 which becomes the second largest NHL contract ever in terms of total $$ value and the highest AAV ever at $13.75M. My guess is he probably feels like he'd be able to get $15 x 7 on the open market ($105M), so to me $110M is likely the number to get him to stay.

Then for McDavid...I think you're looking at close to 17% of the cap (his last deal was 16.7% of the cap the day it was signed and I doubt he's taking less).

My guess is the NHLPA also is really pushing him to sign the largest contract in NHL history - which previously was Ovechkin's $124M over 13 years.

$125M over 8 years is $15.625 per season - and would be pretty close to 17% of a $92M salary cap. The max 7 year deal would probably be $128M x 7, and I think somebody would throw a max contract at him if he made it to UFA. So I think that's around the range you're looking at for him ($125-$130M).

So realistically you're looking at $29.4M for those two combined. And then probably $10M for Bouchard. So $39.4M for all three and a combined 42.7% of your salary cap (Would be $48.6M if you include Nurse and be 52% of the cap on 4 players).

The part that intrigues me the most is that I think when Frank was stating on June 14 that it would take $40M to sign those 3 he was probably close to being right...so now I'm curious if his recent tweet is in regards to that number...or if it's in regards to thinking it was going to come in cheaper than $40M. Because if he's thinking Drai's ask might be even higher than that $40M number then that's even better.

[D as in David]

Draisatl signs or we will shortly start to see a trickle of negativity about him in water-carrying sports media or social media. The social media being an Oiler plant.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Draisatl signs or we will shortly start to see a trickle of negativity about him in water-carrying sports media or social media. The social media being an Oiler plant.

“Can’t stay healthy through the playoffs”
“Needs McDavid to score”
“More of a Powerplay specialist”
“Not a team player”
“Too old now”

The kind of buzz words they’ll throw around to try to shift the narrative.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The question remains "What is a discount?"

Mackinnon: $12.6M x 8 (15.3% of the cap when signed)
Matthews: $13.25M x 4 (15.9% of the salary cap when signed)

So let's put Draisaitl somewhere in their range of 15.5% to 16% of the salary cap, and arguably I think you could say "that's fair value" or even a discount if you think Mackinnon took a discount and Matthews took less AAV because it's only a 4 year term and he left himself room for another big contract.

16% of the cap is $14M
15.5% of the cap is $13.6M

There is no way Draisaitl is taking less than that IMO, he probably wants $110 x 8 which becomes the second largest NHL contract ever in terms of total $$ value and the highest AAV ever at $13.75M. My guess is he probably feels like he'd be able to get $15 x 7 on the open market ($105M), so to me $110M is likely the number to get him to stay.

Then for McDavid...I think you're looking at close to 17% of the cap (his last deal was 16.7% of the cap the day it was signed and I doubt he's taking less).

My guess is the NHLPA also is really pushing him to sign the largest contract in NHL history - which previously was Ovechkin's $124M over 13 years.

$125M over 8 years is $15.625 per season - and would be pretty close to 17% of a $92M salary cap. The max 7 year deal would probably be $128M x 7, and I think somebody would throw a max contract at him if he made it to UFA. So I think that's around the range you're looking at for him ($125-$130M).

So realistically you're looking at $29.4M for those two combined. And then probably $10M for Bouchard. So $39.4M for all three and a combined 42.7% of your salary cap (Would be $48.6M if you include Nurse and be 52% of the cap on 4 players).

The part that intrigues me the most is that I think when Frank was stating on June 14 that it would take $40M to sign those 3 he was probably close to being right...so now I'm curious if his recent tweet is in regards to that number...or if it's in regards to thinking it was going to come in cheaper than $40M. Because if he's thinking Drai's ask might be even higher than that $40M number then that's even better.

I think the intent was to throw out the $40M aggregate number as a number that they expected to stay under, so the "Edmonton discount' mantra could be maintained.

And now the reality is that the $40M will probably be pretty accurate (i.e. more than they actually thought), and the narrative has to change

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by stemit14

“Can’t stay healthy through the playoffs”
“Needs McDavid to score”
“More of a Powerplay specialist”
“Not a team player”
“Too old now”

The kind of buzz words they’ll throw around to try to shift the narrative.

"Wears ugly orange tarps"

[stemit14]

Imagine if McDavid and Draisaitl were pushed by the players union to go absolutely crazy high… especially leading up to the new CBA in 2026. McDavid at $17 million AAV. Draisaitl at $15.5 million AAV. Those kind of numbers would frighten Bowman… but what is he going to do? Not pay them what they want? Let them walk?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Imagine if McDavid and Draisaitl were pushed by the players union to go absolutely crazy high… especially leading up to the new CBA in 2026. McDavid at $17 million AAV. Draisaitl at $15.5 million AAV. Those kind of numbers would frighten Bowman… but what is he going to do? Not pay them what they want? Let them walk?

That's it, either overpay or they walk. Isn't it beautiful?

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Imagine if McDavid and Draisaitl were pushed by the players union to go absolutely crazy high… especially leading up to the new CBA in 2026. McDavid at $17 million AAV. Draisaitl at $15.5 million AAV. Those kind of numbers would frighten Bowman… but what is he going to do? Not pay them what they want? Let them walk?

I thought of this before too, but, its not like the old days, players union couldnt care less, they are getting 50% HRR anyway

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The question remains "What is a discount?"

Mackinnon: $12.6M x 8 (15.3% of the cap when signed)
Matthews: $13.25M x 4 (15.9% of the salary cap when signed)

So let's put Draisaitl somewhere in their range of 15.5% to 16% of the salary cap, and arguably I think you could say "that's fair value" or even a discount if you think Mackinnon took a discount and Matthews took less AAV because it's only a 4 year term and he left himself room for another big contract.

16% of the cap is $14M
15.5% of the cap is $13.6M

There is no way Draisaitl is taking less than that IMO, he probably wants $110 x 8 which becomes the second largest NHL contract ever in terms of total $$ value and the highest AAV ever at $13.75M. My guess is he probably feels like he'd be able to get $15 x 7 on the open market ($105M), so to me $110M is likely the number to get him to stay.

Then for McDavid...I think you're looking at close to 17% of the cap (his last deal was 16.7% of the cap the day it was signed and I doubt he's taking less).

My guess is the NHLPA also is really pushing him to sign the largest contract in NHL history - which previously was Ovechkin's $124M over 13 years.

$125M over 8 years is $15.625 per season - and would be pretty close to 17% of a $92M salary cap. The max 7 year deal would probably be $128M x 7, and I think somebody would throw a max contract at him if he made it to UFA. So I think that's around the range you're looking at for him ($125-$130M).

So realistically you're looking at $29.4M for those two combined. And then probably $10M for Bouchard. So $39.4M for all three and a combined 42.7% of your salary cap (Would be $48.6M if you include Nurse and be 52% of the cap on 4 players).

The part that intrigues me the most is that I think when Frank was stating on June 14 that it would take $40M to sign those 3 he was probably close to being right...so now I'm curious if his recent tweet is in regards to that number...or if it's in regards to thinking it was going to come in cheaper than $40M. Because if he's thinking Drai's ask might be even higher than that $40M number then that's even better.

If he thinks he can get 15x7 why would he ever take 13.75 x8 and stay in Edmonton? If I were him I'd want more to stay in Edmonton.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Gaudfather

This never gets old!

Matthew Tkachuk once again reaffirms his love for Calgary and hate for Edmonton.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1828456326852161983

Only a true Calgarian hates Edmonton like that.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I would assume that McDavid's deal will be easy and non-negotiable. Max deal x 8. I can't think of a realistic argument against it. I believe that the max deal is 20% of the cap. Cap is at 88 million this year, so a max deal is 17.6 million this year, though he is ineligible to extend. However, McDavid will be able to extend next season, and if the cap rises by another 4.5 million as it did this past season (no guarantee of course), then the max contract will be 18.5.


McDavid's 8 year deal might just end up as 148 million if he re-signs in Edmonton.


If he waits to go to free agency, and the salary cap takes another 4.5 million increase yet again, then the max contract is 19.4 million. A max 7 year deal would be 135.8 million.


That's a fairly big hit to take not to sign with Edmonton. However, maybe one of the lower taxed US states will make the room to sign him (and why wouldn't they?).



If he doesn't extend in Edmonton, I would imagine that this will push Edmonton to shop him around so that it benefits both the Oilers and McDavid - he can still get the Max Deal x 8, and the Oilers will kickstart a rebuild with a lot of draft capital and futures. It would create quite the circus and intrigue in and even outside of the league.



I will hope that both Draisaitl and McDavid are re-signed. I just don't think the Oilers will be able to really build around them, as they haven't shown themselves competent in doing so in the past. Bowman hasn't shown himself to be competent of doing so while in Chicago either.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

That's it, either overpay or they walk. Isn't it beautiful?

I thought Mcdavid was walking regardless! Please please please haha

[stemit14]

IMO, the ideal scenario is the oilers let Draisaitl work to free agency thinking he’ll re-sign the entire time. They fall for the exact same thing with McDavid the following year and but still end up signing Bouchard to a $10 million x 8 year deal. Would be hilarious.

[Eric Vail]

I can see Drai signing for 15/year, but not in Edmonton. I think they would have to offer him something ridiculous to convince him to stay. His wife is an actress. He is a German with no real reason to want to stick around Edmonton. This is his chance to be a star on the big stage somewhere. He's going to take it. Edmonton needs to do more than $15 million to convince him to stay.

Like Gaudreau. The Flames offered more, but it didn't really matter how much they offered, he was leaving. Same with Tkachuk. Same with Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Coffey, Weight, etc..

[CaptainCrunch]

Draisaitl and Mcflippy already gave the old Oiler discount the last time around. There is no logical reason why they will give another discount in what could be both of their last super duper sky is the limit contract.



Not a chance.


Oh but Captain, they want to win a cup together, in Edmonton.


Yeah, they can win a cup anywhere, those two will have the pick of teams that want to add to a winning mix, and they have to be looking at the Oilers a team in cap hell, with absolutely no future past this year and the alarm sirens are going off in their heads. Or the dust mites are jumping or whatever.

[Paulie Walnuts]

He will easily get 15M in free agency and his choice.

These type of players don’t hit free agency. He would be dumb to sign for anything less than 14 in Edmonton.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

I thought Mcdavid was walking regardless! Please please please haha

He is. I meant for Drai.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

What's funny is their chances of a cup win is definitely higher elsewhere. Depends on the organization they choose of course, but there are/will be clubs that are a mcdavid or draisaitl away from a Tampa Bay type of run.

To say it's Edmonton or bust for their cup hopes is laughable and just veiled desperation.

Their obsession with adding journeyman forwards to bolster scoring instead of shoring up the defense and throwing money at bad players (nurse, Campbell, brown, etc) is precisely that oilers incompetence that's held them back from any team hardware in the McEra.

You can bet other teams wouldn't botch that opportunity with 8 tries at it.

[McG]

Remember Taylor hall signing all of those short term deals? That will not have gone unnoticed in shelbyville.

It didn’t work out for Hall. Hall would have been better off signing a monster contract and then letting buyouts or whatever happen.

You know that either pissy is not signing, or he has asked for waaaay more money than the Oilers want to pay. A deal would be done otherwise as the contract term must be max.

Now we are into the posturing and wishful thinking period.