Fixing the Draft, Stopping the Tank

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

My intuition on an auction is that if you had 110 points you'd probably want to go BPA for 102, and then take the best 8 players you could get for 1 point each. I suspect they'd be the 3rd and below layer of the current draft.

I’d trade all mine for next year’s points and probably get a premium because of the bias that seems to exist to want the shiny toy now instead of later. Then I’d start next year with 220+ and be able to do it again or control things more easily.

[ThisIsAnOutrage]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You can still steal in an auction format by outbidding the other team.

But it's not really stealing if no one has player selected in a draft slot before some other team pries him out. Just bidding the highest and then not having to worry isn't the same.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the certainty that comes with the current draft system is what makes tanking attractive. Even though there is still the draft lottery, the range of final outcomes for the draft order are still pretty narrow.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by ThisIsAnOutrage

But it's not really stealing if no one has player selected in a draft slot before some other team pries him out. Just bidding the highest and then not having to worry isn't the same.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the certainty that comes with the current draft system is what makes tanking attractive. Even though there is still the draft lottery, the range of final outcomes for the draft order are still pretty narrow.

I don't think there's anything wrong with tanking, but if you want to eliminate it, I think it's pretty simple. Make an equal chance lottery for all teams, and repeat it n-1 times instead of 2, where n is the number of first round choices in the draft.

I like the idea of draft points (not necessarily the stealing and re-drafting part) because it adds liquidity to the draft capital market. If a team used my strategy, sooner or later you are sitting on 700 draft points in a Bedard draft and no one else has more than 400. We'd see whether or not teams truly value superstar prospects exponentially more.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Wouldn't that give certain teams even more incentive to tank?

I think it might, but I also think it would help out some teams that suck, just not enough to get elite talent. I start feeling bad for the OTTs and DETs of the world.

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

There is no loophole

It's just my opinion - Once a team drafts a player, said player shouldn't have the option to sign his first contract with another team... unless he's traded, he plays 7 years of professional hockey, or turns 25.

Originally Posted by ThisIsAnOutrage

Thanks, GV.

Question is It G. Vitaly or G.V. Italy? This has been perplexing me for some time.

It's the former. It's the former or just Vitaly, but you can refer to me whichever way you want, I'll understand.

[CSharp]

I'll only agree to stopping the tank once the Flames finally gets the #1 overall picks consecutively in 2025 and 2026. After that, implement whatever is necessary.

[Hackey]

Do other fan bases care this much about the lottery? I feel like Flames fans care way more than anyone else because the Oilers have had so many 1st overalls and the Flames have never had anything higher than 4 and have had a major reluctance to rebuilding or giving their franchise legitimate opportunities at those top picks.

[Jason14h]

Get rid of the draft and make all draft eligible players FAs .

The bad teams should have the most cap space as they have the worse players getting paid less - hence why they are bad

Poorly managed teams who suck and have no cap will be screwed but that’s competition!

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Get rid of the draft and make all draft eligible players FAs .

The bad teams should have the most cap space as they have the worse players getting paid less - hence why they are bad

Poorly managed teams who suck and have no cap will be screwed but that’s competition!

That will give the US teams a huge advantage.

Why sign your ELC in Canada? pay more taxes, have a worse weather, have less things to do, have more travel, and a much worse health care system(compared to the one the NHL pays for in the US).

It would also incentivize the richer teams to invest heavily in the AHL. Because only contracts in the NHL apply against the cap.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Do other fan bases care this much about the lottery? I feel like Flames fans care way more than anyone else because the Oilers have had so many 1st overalls and the Flames have never had anything higher than 4 and have had a major reluctance to rebuilding or giving their franchise legitimate opportunities at those top picks.

To me it's very little about that. It's about changing a system that rewards failure and incentivizes tanking.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Get rid of the draft and make all draft eligible players FAs .

The bad teams should have the most cap space as they have the worse players getting paid less - hence why they are bad

Poorly managed teams who suck and have no cap will be screwed but that’s competition!

Yeah, may as well fold the Flames if that happens

[Bubba17]

I would pay to watch that type of draft. Old fossil GM's would never figure that out and it would be hilarious.

[Geeoff]

Anyway, if you can trade for points, wouldn't this encourage bad teams to trade veteran players for points? Is this not tanking?

I think if the goal was to eliminate tanking, then every team should get the same amount of points and you can't trade for points. If multiple teams go all in for Macklin Celebrini, then Celebrini gets to choose which one he goes to

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah, may as well fold the Flames if that happens

Why ? We spend to the cap every year .

There’s a fixed amount of money to go around in salaries .

You either spend your money on established players or rookies . Can’t do both ….

[ThisIsAnOutrage]

Originally Posted by GGG

Can this draft ever end?

The points never get spent accept when buying a player from the NHL. So you spend 1 point on a player and you want to get him stolen for more so you can rack up picks to go after the number 1 pick. The strategy would be to be to accumulate the most points and then fill your draft slots with your actual targets. This becomes very clunky and I’m not sure if you ever actually run out of points.

I like the concept though. I would adjust it to either an auction or a blind bid. Same point system as you describe but teams nominate a player to be auctioned and then teams bid on the player and the high bid takes the player.

Do you spend all your points to get a top prospect or is 7 20 pointers better after people blue entire drafts in the top 5 picks.

Or a blind bid for each player with your points and the high bid taking it. The you have all kinds of game theory for how to maximize your point usage.

I did some quick math. Yes the draft must eventually end.

In total there are 3729 points in play, and initially 224 draft slots. If each team gets each player for only one point, That leaves 3505 points to make more slots and draft more players. Assuming GMs have taken traded points among them to avoid any remainders above a mutliple of 11 (the cost of a new slot plus 1 point tondraft a player) an additional 318 players.xouks be drafted. With 7 points left over.

As for stealing loops, since the cost to steal goes up by at least one with every steal and there is a finite amount of points, eventually stealing becomes impossible. That could take awhile though.

If the first player were draft for one point, and stolen the maximum number if times, he could be stolen 3504 times. If I have this right, the second player could only be stolen 3503 times since one point is eliminates when he is selected. Thies player, 3502, and so on.

But that depends on GMs wanting to steal every time, and only for the minimum points. Frankly, if they do that, they deserve to suffer.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Why ? We spend to the cap every year .

There’s a fixed amount of money to go around in salaries .

You either spend your money on established players or rookies . Can’t do both ….

The desirable locations would get the most valuable players and Calgary is definitely bottom ten in desirable places to sign and might even be bottom five.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Better solution is something like this:
- Bottom 10 teams qualify for the draft top 10 picks of the lottery
- As soon as a team is eliminated their point % at that point is used to set reverse standings
- The team with the highest winning %, after their elimination point, gets the #1 pick. And so on.

There are things to work out, such as it doesn't account for different strengths of schedules post elimination.

However I like the concept because you reward winning down the stretch.

I can already smell the new form of "injured" player abuse for teams to lock up #1 picks.

[The Cobra]

As long as there is some benefit to coming last, teams will continue to tank.

And I'm not against tanking, although I think the word is often used improperly.

When you know your team is in a down cycle, I don't consider it tanking to trade older players on expiring contracts for prospects tanking, although that team is not trying its best to win as many games as they could by trying to resign an aging player.

Calgary may finish at the bottom of the league but they are not tanking, they are just playing it smart.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by ThisIsAnOutrage

I did some quick math. Yes the draft must eventually end.

In total there are 3729 points in play, and initially 224 draft slots. If each team gets each player for only one point, That leaves 3505 points to make more slots and draft more players. Assuming GMs have taken traded points among them to avoid any remainders above a mutliple of 11 (the cost of a new slot plus 1 point tondraft a player) an additional 318 players.xouks be drafted. With 7 points left over.

As for stealing loops, since the cost to steal goes up by at least one with every steal and there is a finite amount of points, eventually stealing becomes impossible. That could take awhile though.

If the first player were draft for one point, and stolen the maximum number if times, he could be stolen 3504 times. If I have this right, the second player could only be stolen 3503 times since one point is eliminates when he is selected. Thies player, 3502, and so on.

But that depends on GMs wanting to steal every time, and only for the minimum points. Frankly, if they do that, they deserve to suffer.

I think the number of steals would be less than 3000, but still way more than the league would realistically put up with for time reasons.

[DJones]

Easiest solution would just be get rid of ELCs for the elite guys. Someone wants Celebrini, offer him 3x8M.

Or maybe just do that for 18 year olds. Everyone else gets drafted at 19.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Bonded

The desirable locations would get the most valuable players and Calgary is definitely bottom ten in desirable places to sign and might even be bottom five.

The Calgary Flames have never been able to re-sign their own players. They have never been able to sign UFAs.