Electric vehicle war, is gas soon to be toast?

[photon]

There's no charger in Oyen??

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by photon

There's no charger in Oyen??

Their is, but it's a Dodge.




/Sorry

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by photon

There's no charger in Oyen??

the Hanna / Kindersley charging gap remains a problem

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do many people drive one vehicle 25,000 km a year? The average is ~15,000km. And those savings are for a pickup truck, a smaller efficient gas car will see less savings.

Also AB has less of a gap too.

A small car getting 8L/100km with $1.50/L means $12/100km.

My EV right now is 21 kwh/100km with $0.22c/kwh (which is fully inclusive of all the fees in AB), or $4.62/100km.

Still cheaper, and at 15,000km/year it's $1100/yr savings. Much less than what Street Pharmacist posted.

For me, the EV was about $6000 more expensive than the equivalent ICE so the payback is about 5 years.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If you are making less than 80k a year nowadays you should not be thinking of buying a new car.

Buying a new car is never a good financial decision no matter what you make

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Why are people so reluctant to purchase EV's if the payout is this quick? I've always wondered this.

Because it's still several steps back before starting to make certain leaps forward. You have to do the math on it and compare it to your personal situation.

Based on what I want and need, a model 3 is still around $15-25K more (closer to $15 now that covid pricing is less ridiculous). I did the calc with a guy who was driving a pick up truck 30000-40000 KM a year (work) and he was saving around $11-13K a year when comparing real receipts here in Calgary.

For others, a calculation where you're saving $2-5K a year is a lot in operating costs (depends on the car you're currently driving and how often you drive). But if you're paying a $10-20K premium to hop into an EV, that's still around a 3-5+ year break even if paying $10+K more (depends if I drive closer to the 12K KM vs 18K KM a year). I also considered financing costs and costs of replacing tires a year earlier in my situation for that $3-5K difference. I know for a fact I wouldn't be able to help myself to that extra performance.

That's not even factoring if someone pays a few grand to upgrade their ability to charge faster at home. I'm also personally in a situation where my electrical box cannot handle it and the cost to upgrade my service is stupid, so I'd be relying on slow charging and occasional supercharging, but that's no big deal.

There's a high likelihood I'll consider BEV or PHEV as my next car when my current one needs replacement or I want something new in about 5 years. At that time incremental costs to get into one makes way more sense for sure.

But if I were selling my current full sized sedan for $15K and buying a model 3 at around $30-35K (with the AWD and long range battery specs I need) puts me in a hole I'll be digging out of for about 3-5 years before I start to profit. It doesn't make good financial sense for me. For my situation, that extra cash flow is a barrier to me doing it.

For those without cashflow concerns and can cash down, this is less of a factor.

Originally Posted by Cappy

What if i have to drive to Saskatoon last minute, and our other ICE vehicle is in the shop?!?!?!

I don't know if you're being serious or not, but I did factor that into one of my calculations. It'd be wise to spend around $300-500 on a small gas generator and a jerry can to have on hand to bring with you as a back up for emergency road trips like that.

But that's purely for avoiding being stranded, not for decreasing the time spent recharging.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Lifestyle. One barrier right off the bat is not having anywhere convenient to plug in.

If you live in a house or in a multi-family dwelling with outdoor parking that has block heater plug-ins, then at the very least you have (slow) level 1 charging. But if you rely on zoned street parking, or are in a multi-story dwelling with an underground parking garage, it's pretty likely that you don't have access to charging infrastructure at home.

Originally Posted by Cappy

What if i have to drive to Saskatoon last minute, and our other ICE vehicle is in the shop?!?!?!

I should have phrased my question better. People seem to be reluctant to purchase EV's unless there are government incentives due to the higher purchase price. If the payout is there then the higher price should not matter, you will be money ahead in a few years. Why do we need government incentives? It's interesting consumer behavior.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I should have phrased my question better. People seem to be reluctant to purchase EV's unless there are government incentives due to the higher purchase price. If the payout is there then the higher price should not matter, you will be money ahead in a few years. Why do we need government incentives? It's interesting consumer behavior.

Kind of reminds me of solar, where I've seen payout estimates of anywhere from 7 to 12 years.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I should have phrased my question better. People seem to be reluctant to purchase EV's unless there are government incentives due to the higher purchase price. If the payout is there then the higher price should not matter, you will be money ahead in a few years. Why do we need government incentives? It's interesting consumer behavior.

It's mostly because you're asking the average consumer to pay the upfront costs first, with the expectations you'll break even over the next 5 years depending on usage. That's a tough sell if someone's main motivation is saving money and rather than it's better for the environment.

A lot could happen in 5 years where you may not even come out ahead (ie. you get in car accident, car is written off, what's the re-sale value of the car, battery replacement, etc).

[Street Pharmacist]

The financial math is very contextual and messy. The logistics is also messy. For a secondary car, the logistics is easy, math is often harder. For a primary vehicle, it's the reverse.

Purchase price parity is coming soon, but it's certainly not here yet. A simple Google search will tell you the that gap between average ICE and average EV sale price is about 10%, but EVs don't have a real "discount" segment so it's not that easy of a comparison. This is changing, though slower here than elsewhere. Gas prices and electricity prices will fluctuate making the calculation tricky

Logistics will continue to improve though. Here in BC there's plenty of chargers and the network overall is great. I can drive from Salmon Arm to Chetwynd and have a bevy of options to choose for charging. If I'm going from Salmon Arm to Grande Cache to see my Dad, it is pretty challenging and requires some planning and waits in certain places on the Alberta side. In the winter it would require a ridiculous wait in Hinton as there's no real fast charger

But....


It's chicken and egg. The Chargers will be installed eventually, but uptake would be faster if there were more EVs to use them

[Brupal]

I know few here believe it, but it is possible once Tesla rolls out fully autonomous ride sharing that a person who owns a Tesla could put it out to the fleet and see $20,000 per year in revenue. I know some will object to letting the great unwashed masses ride in their cars, but when you dangle a passive income stream in front of owners who can make that dough without much effort it will happen. Pay attention to October 10 when Tesla is presenting their robotaxi concept to the world. It could actually revolutionize the transportation market as we know it. I’m prepared for the hate and the doubt, but autonomous ride sharing is coming and it will be huge. And the first to roll it out with scale will dominate the market. Uber and Lyft will face the brunt of it first.

Check out this video for no reason other than to get a sense of what is possible in this space:
https://youtu.be/aw2iwjnYuaw?si=-QiVIW2BUp0f2gUD

[DoubleF]

I don't see it. I think it'll be as revolutionary as autopilot. By the time Tesla sorts out the issues and gets it to where they want it, other automakers will be nipping at their heels.

Also, Uber/Lyft/Weymo etc. have a lot of market cap combined. No way they would just roll over to allow Tesla to be crowned king of a new market.

[Brupal]

Uber charges about $2 per mile, mostly because they have to pay the driver. If Tesla replaces the driver with an autonomous vehicle, and then builds a low cost Cyber Taxi or relies on existing owners to put their cars into the fleet, or turns around lease returns into robotaxis, they could easily undercut Uber by offering rides for $1.50 per mile and eventually $1 per mile or less. If a Tesla ride is meaningfully less expensive than an Uber, then instantly Uber’s market lead disappears. Uber has had 10 years to perfect their niche and have lost a cumulative $31 Billion doing so. They will have to partner with Tesla and pay them a licensing fee to enable autonomous driving to cut their costs enough to compete with Tesla or else it is game over. Meanwhile as the cost of rides falls, transit and even owning a personal car becomes expensive in comparison. I think autonomous ride sharing is going to be revolutionary, and it is going to roll out sooner than people think. I’d welcome any discussion on the topic.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Brupal

I know few here believe it, but it is possible once Tesla rolls out fully autonomous ride sharing that a person who owns a Tesla could put it out to the fleet and see $20,000 per year in revenue. I know some will object to letting the great unwashed masses ride in their cars, but when you dangle a passive income stream in front of owners who can make that dough without much effort it will happen. Pay attention to October 10 when Tesla is presenting their robotaxi concept to the world. It could actually revolutionize the transportation market as we know it. I’m prepared for the hate and the doubt, but autonomous ride sharing is coming and it will be huge. And the first to roll it out with scale will dominate the market. Uber and Lyft will face the brunt of it first.

Check out this video for no reason other than to get a sense of what is possible in this space:
https://youtu.be/aw2iwjnYuaw?si=-QiVIW2BUp0f2gUD

Sure, anything is possible at some point in the far distant future. If you are buying a Tesla now with the plan of it making you money, You may want to look back at the people who bought Tesla's in 2019 for the same purpose based on the same BS.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he is “very confident” Tesla would be able to offer robotaxis next year as a rival to ride-hailing apps like Uber and Lyft.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...rk/3549652002/


Tesla's autopilot hasn't made any big steps since then. Based on what I've seen of the most recent releases, they are nowhere close to being able to do this. Sure, I'll pay attention October 10th to another long list of promises in an attempt to keep the stock price from collapsing that won't happen. Beyond that you'd have to be pretty brainwashed to continue to put any faith in Musk's words about how soon they'll solve autonomy.



Beyond that, It's easy to imagine your vehicle making money for you, it's a lot harder to think of all the drawbacks, like keeping it clean, undamaged, and available for your own use when you need it on short notice. Same with charging and battery degradation. No, this will be used by people creating small fleets of these where it's a full time business, not regular people. And it sure won't happen any time soon with their stubborn insistence to rely on vision only and not having developed AGI, which is anywhere form a year to infinity away.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I should have phrased my question better. People seem to be reluctant to purchase EV's unless there are government incentives due to the higher purchase price. If the payout is there then the higher price should not matter, you will be money ahead in a few years. Why do we need government incentives? It's interesting consumer behavior.

It's an easy answer here, if I recall correctly. About 30% of Americans live in properties that would allow for charging at home. Would that number be 60% in Canada? It's just not practical for too many people here, regardless the cost of vehicle. So it feeds itself - not enough charging stations because not enough demand. And not enough demand because not enough charging stations.
And also why it's considered a vehicle for the wealthy, not because of the cost of the vehicle but because it's 'the wealthy' who can charge at home, in general terms.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Sure, anything is possible at some point in the far distant future. If you are buying a Tesla now with the plan of it making you money, You may want to look back at the people who bought Tesla's in 2019 for the same purpose based on the same BS.

How many promises of "next year" have there been now? Better part of a decade now?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by chemgear

How many promises of "next year" have there been now? Better part of a decade now?

This only goes up to 2022...but...lots.


https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

It's an easy answer here, if I recall correctly. About 30% of Americans live in properties that would allow for charging at home. Would that number be 60% in Canada? It's just not practical for too many people here, regardless the cost of vehicle. So it feeds itself - not enough charging stations because not enough demand. And not enough demand because not enough charging stations.

And also why it's considered a vehicle for the wealthy, not because of the cost of the vehicle but because it's 'the wealthy' who can charge at home, in general terms.

Not being able to charge at home isn't a non starter. I still don't have my level 2 installed at home and the level 1 trips my outlet that has a 10a surge protector. I've been charging at public chargers with zero issue. The grocery store here has both level 1 and 2 chargers as does Canadian Tire.

[MacFlame]

Purchased a Mache E back in March. Her's my experience overall.

1.) I've rarely required a 240V install at my house. I have a 120V plug in my garage and I plug into that daily. That will, on average, get me about 70 km every night, which is usually enough to get me through the next day (ie. I dont normally require more than 70km per day of driving.

2.) There are some weeks when I do a lot of driving with the kids and their sports. During these weeks, I usually wind up with a daily deficit (ie. the amount I charge is less than my driving needs). I have a 240V charger at my office that I plug into once per week during these weeks for about 3-4 hours. This cost $1/hour.

3.)Overall power bill has went up by about $60/mth.

4.) I looked into installing a 240V in my garage. Two quotes came in around 6K. 6K! Yeah...no. That a lot of $1 charges...not worth it for me.

5.) The concern around EV charging on long road trips was a total fabrication in my mind. I intended to buy this car for city use only. I openly told people that I wouldnt drive on long trips with it due to lack of charging infrastructure. Total newb and ignorant analysis on my end. I've drove to Edmonton, Osoyoos, Seattle, Oregon Coast, Portland and now Spokane. Never a problem and in most cases have received free charging down in the states. Total non-issue. Not sure why I said stuff like that.

6.) the vehicle I was driving was an F-150 before. I was paying around $400-$500/mth in fuel. So, in MY case, the fuel savings alone helped justify the cost of the Mache E. Having said that, any car purchase would help justify the purchase when looking at fuel costs of the F150.

7.) I've definitely had to stop more often on long road trips to charge up. Its not as bad as I thought it would be, but it is certainly more often. The magic number I think would be around that 750 to 800 km range....if there were more EV's with that sort of range, long distance trips would be a total non-factor.

8.) FORD needs to stop changing their EV app. It worked great before and I really liked the trip planner that they had....its gone now. So I'm forced to plan trips using 3rd party apps...which I dont really like as good as the old FORD app.

That's all I can think of. Some good. some bad. But overall, a good experience and would purchase another EV as a second vehicle if I could find one with a longer range battery than the Mach E at a somewhat affordable price.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Brupal

Uber charges about $2 per mile, mostly because they have to pay the driver. If Tesla replaces the driver with an autonomous vehicle, and then builds a low cost Cyber Taxi or relies on existing owners to put their cars into the fleet, or turns around lease returns into robotaxis, they could easily undercut Uber by offering rides for $1.50 per mile and eventually $1 per mile or less. If a Tesla ride is meaningfully less expensive than an Uber, then instantly Uber’s market lead disappears. Uber has had 10 years to perfect their niche and have lost a cumulative $31 Billion doing so. They will have to partner with Tesla and pay them a licensing fee to enable autonomous driving to cut their costs enough to compete with Tesla or else it is game over. Meanwhile as the cost of rides falls, transit and even owning a personal car becomes expensive in comparison. I think autonomous ride sharing is going to be revolutionary, and it is going to roll out sooner than people think. I’d welcome any discussion on the topic.

Except it won’t stay cheap. Nothing stays cheap. Sure they can undercut Uber and put them in submission, then let cost rise and much as they like. I expect their model to be like Uber - individuals own the cars and carry the maintenance burden while Tesla takes a hefty cut.