[Trade] Oilers trade Ceci, 3rd to Sharks for Ty Emberson

[Paulie Walnuts]

Here is the thing. Ceci was decent for the Oilers especially in the playoffs. Now they have someone who they called a bust making 4.6 million and is most likely AHL caliber right now. They can't trade him either.

Not only that the Oilers are bleeding away draft picks, they just spent 2 picks yesterday. They will be in the thick of the playoff race and will now have to dip into 26/27 picks if they want to make a move.

Now they are capped out, have 3 stars needing large raises, and have no draft capital or prospects. The Oilers 2nd and 3rd pairing are Flames level bad.

I saw Spector last night say this a masterclass from Jackson and Bowman. It absolutely is on how to #### your team up.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well Bouchard was tied for 4th in even strength points by dmen with Makar, so it is not like he only scored on the PP. If you took all the PP points away he would still be a 47 point dman.

Bouchard and Ekholm played with McDavid much of the year. They were a 5-man unit, like the Soviets used to do.

Simple question: if Bouchard were on another team, in a normal role, do you think his point total would be anything like what it was with the Oil last year?

[memphusk]

No, but keeping him with Ekholm inflates his contract so keep it up Edmonton.

[Enoch Root]

People look at each transaction in isolation (for obvious reasons), but it is important to look at the overall impact to the team. And the Oilers have gotten smaller, slower, older, and softer this summer.

Out:
Desharnais, 6'7"
Ceci: 6'3"
Foegele: 6'2"
McLeod: 6'3"
Holloway: 6'1"


In:
Brown: 6'5"
Emberson: 6'2"
Arvidsson: 5'10"
Skinner: 5'11"
Podzolkin: 6'1"

They got smaller (by 2" on average), older (by more than 3 years on avg) and slower.

Most importantly, they got much softer. I thought the biggest difference in the Oilers this year, compared to past years, was that they could handle the physicality, and actually dish it out quite a bit. But they have lost several of their most physical players, along with some speed. Add in Kane on LTIR and they have gone from actually being one of the more physical teams, to being very soft again.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This reasoning suggests that every trade is a good one for both teams involved, because they were simply the teams involved.

Doubt anyone buys that.

But this is a trade where SJ isn’t giving up an asset

So as long as their owner deems the salary cost of Ceci is worth a 3rd it doesn’t matter if people think they should hold out for more

The asset they are trading (cap space) is a static asset all team have access too, where when you are trading for a player only one of that player exists so there’s a different judging on value / winning a trade

SJ just got a 3rd for effectively writing a check , hard to see how in any world that is a loss

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I suspect teams were asking for a better asset including SJ.
And then some team blinked and said they would take a 3rd.
At that point Edmonton would tell all teams they can get a 3rd, and go for the higest possible one offered - which would be SJ.

100%

As long as multiple teams had cap space they are willing to sell there is still a bidding “war” for the free asset/pick

Only one team gets the pick while the other teams have relatively useless cap
Space left after (assuming not every team uses all their cap space effectively by start of the season)

Personally I would like the Flames to have another 3rd round pick right now for doing a trade that has zero effect on them for the rest of the season . They could literally release Ceci tomorrow if they wanted and have a free 3rd round for the on the books salary

The only one who should care is the one writing the checks !

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

People look at each transaction in isolation (for obvious reasons), but it is important to look at the overall impact to the team. And the Oilers have gotten smaller, slower, older, and softer this summer.

Out:
Desharnais, 6'7"
Ceci: 6'3"
Foegele: 6'2"
McLeod: 6'3"
Holloway: 6'1"


In:
Brown: 6'5"
Emberson: 6'2"
Arvidsson: 5'10"
Skinner: 5'11"
Podzolkin: 6'1"

They got smaller (by 2" on average), older (by more than 3 years on avg) and slower.

Most importantly, they got much softer. I thought the biggest difference in the Oilers this year, compared to past years, was that they could handle the physicality, and actually dish it out quite a bit. But they have lost several of their most physical players, along with some speed. Add in Kane on LTIR and they have gone from actually being one of the more physical teams, to being very soft again.

They also played defence, and killed penalties and that is a big no no in Edmonton.

[Bingo]

Yeah I think the piling on for Grier here could be misguided.

If you have 2 teams demanding a second you either hold to your demands and potentially lose out, or bump it up and get it done.

I know my old gas supply marketing days with RFPs you could make sure you never win one, or you could drop the demands and get it done and build your book.

[Iggy_12]

Also have to consider that the oilers dont have a 2025 second to give, so a 2025 3rd is almost an equal asset to a 2026 second as far as value goes.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

But this is a trade where SJ isn’t giving up an asset

So as long as their owner deems the salary cost of Ceci is worth a 3rd it doesn’t matter if people think they should hold out for more

The asset they are trading (cap space) is a static asset all team have access too, where when you are trading for a player only one of that player exists so there’s a different judging on value / winning a trade

SJ just got a 3rd for effectively writing a check , hard to see how in any world that is a loss

The value of the check is how you determine whether it’s a win or a loss.

And it absolutely matters whether Ceci’s salary and the value of a 3rd actually line up.

If the San Jose owner deemed that cap space worth a 7th, would you still think it’s a good deal?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah I think the piling on for Grier here could be misguided.

If you have 2 teams demanding a second you either hold to your demands and potentially lose out, or bump it up and get it done.

I know my old gas supply marketing days with RFPs you could make sure you never win one, or you could drop the demands and get it done and build your book.

Tenders are the worst. Usually don't feel great if you get them or miss them haha

[Paulie Walnuts]

Outside of Bouchard who has inflated point totals from playing with McDavid, the Oiler defence might actually be worse than ours.

I'd take Bean over Kulak.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Bouchard and Ekholm played with McDavid much of the year. They were a 5-man unit, like the Soviets used to do.

Simple question: if Bouchard were on another team, in a normal role, do you think his point total would be anything like what it was with the Oil last year?

Codi Ceci played 1370 ES mins last year and 716 of those mins neither Draisaitl nor McDavid were on the ice. 52% of his ES ice time were with the 3rd and 4th lines matching up against the other team's best forwards.

I'm not a big fan of Ceci, but Broberg is not going to jump into that role and do well. Bouchard wouldn't either.

Ekholm could, but I doubt they split him up from Bouchard.

They aren't better but they are short picks and if Kane comes back early, they will need to put someone who makes $3 mil or more on IR all the way to the playoffs. If they start slow this could get messy for them.

Then there is the trade deadline, they won't be adding anything. If they do, they will be trading 2026 picks. This is the last year for them, Leon stays they will be so far in the hole they won't be able to pull out of it.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Here is the thing. Ceci was decent for the Oilers especially in the playoffs. Now they have someone who they called a bust making 4.6 million and is most likely AHL caliber right now. They can't trade him either.

Not only that the Oilers are bleeding away draft picks, they just spent 2 picks yesterday. They will be in the thick of the playoff race and will now have to dip into 26/27 picks if they want to make a move.

Now they are capped out, have 3 stars needing large raises, and have no draft capital or prospects. The Oilers 2nd and 3rd pairing are Flames level bad.

I saw Spector last night say this a masterclass from Jackson and Bowman. It absolutely is on how to #### your team up.

Apparently they have 1 pick to "dip into" in 2026

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

A masterclass on getting older, decimating your future and running even more full bore towards that cliff.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Bouchard - Ekholm
Nurse - Broberg
Kulak - Brown
Emberson

This is what they currently will roll out.

I forgot they have Stecher as well.

That has to be the worst group in the NHL for a so called contender. McDavid bailing them out every single day.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The value of the check is how you determine whether it’s a win or a loss.

And it absolutely matters whether Ceci’s salary and the value of a 3rd actually line up.

If the San Jose owner deemed that cap space worth a 7th, would you still think it’s a good deal?

If no one was offering any pick to take on salary better then a 7th? Sure why not.

A 7th is better then nothing. The value of the cap space is very low to SJ. You can't carry cap forward, so its a use it or lose it asset.

If my owner told me real cash had no baring to them I would trade every penny of cap room for picks .

Now no owner is going to think like that, But 2.3m difference between Cecil and Emer for a 3rd doesn't seem unreasonable.

2.3m to purchase a 3rd rounder? Sign me up for 10 if its not my money!

The issue is people mistakenly think the other teams had leverage over Edmonton while in fact there could have been many teams with excess cap space competing to get a pick back. It just depends what each team values the pick as $$ wise.

Edmonton just had to wait for someone to blink.

Despite what people wish "Screwing the Oilers" is non existent on most of these teams priority list

Also - Maybe waiving Holloway was part of the deal, so in effect its two 3rd round picks to take Ceci.

And finally - Ceci has value to SJ. He will be a good veteran presence on their D core and potentially they can flip for another pick at the deadline. This isnt a complete trash player being traded. SJ doesn't exactly have a good D core and they arent looking to emberass themselves this season.

Time will tell. But thinking SJ could have held out for more only works if EVERY team holds out for more. Its a bit of a prisoners dilema scenario. It only takes 1 team to blink and you (SJ) dont get any asset

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Apparently they have 1 pick to "dip into" in 2026

Am I missing something? It shows they have all their picks in 26 and 6th rounder this year.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

Between Broberg, Nurse and cap growth, Bouchard is going to want at least 11M. Funny thing is, that’s an Edmonton only number. Anywhere else, he’s at 7 or 8

So he wants to stay in Edmonton so he can sign the biggest contract. Honestly, who wants to stay in Edmonton? As we speculate about Draisaitl and McDavid leaving town in the next couple years, why would Bouchard want to stay in Edmonton, especially when two of biggest reasons he looked so good have left. If I were him I'd sign for big bucks and try to invent a new clause called the MTC (Must Trade Clause).

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Buff

So he wants to stay in Edmonton so he can sign the biggest contract. Honestly, who wants to stay in Edmonton? As we speculate about Draisaitl and McDavid leaving town in the next couple years, why would Bouchard want to stay in Edmonton, especially when two of biggest reasons he looked so good have left. If I were him I'd sign for big bucks and try to invent a new clause called the MTC (Must Trade Clause).

I was saying his actual value is much less than what edmonton will be forced to pay him because of how they've structured their back end contracts. could be a total difference of around 40 million actually.
if they sign everybody, they will have 50 million tied up in 4 contracts, if draisaitl and mcdavid dont sign, they will fold the franchise in 5 years.