I said the Democrat voters are coming home and double-haters are moving to Kamala. No denying that. She's swung the election 8 points.
I'm just curious, can it last? There's still two months to go. Does Trump get a bounceback? What happens if he does? Does Kamala suddenly do interviews? Should she maybe do a few safe ones now?
I think the biggest risk for her is debates. She isn't a great communicator when it's off the cuff (IMO), and so she could end up looking 'unpresidential' as being a powerful and confident orator is a big decision factor for some people.
I think it's more likely she is just average at the debate, which would probably be good enough.
An interesting datapoint is that The Rest is Politics podcast crew still think Trump is a slight favourite. If the poll numbers continue for another few weeks then it will probably swing to Kamala being a favourite, but it won't be a blow out.
I really feel like having Walz as the communication piece is so smart and effective. It's also hard to factor that into the future. He communicates so well and is so relatable that I could see that really impact independents and regular republicans.
I said the Democrat voters are coming home and double-haters are moving to Kamala. No denying that. She's swung the election 8 points.
I'm just curious, can it last? There's still two months to go. Does Trump get a bounceback? What happens if he does? Does Kamala suddenly do interviews? Should she maybe do a few safe ones now?
Trump is what in the UK we'd call a Marmite candidate, a percentage of the electorate love him, a vastly larger percentage dislike to hate him, the only race he has ever won was because Clinton was herself a terrible campaigner, a policy wonk who didn't take Trump seriously and so put little effort into campaigning in the blue wall, took it for granted, Harris isnt doing this, she and Walz are outworking Trump by a country mile, he is a lazy angry heavily over weight man shouting at the kids on his lawn metaphorically
Trump is a dreadful candidate and always has been, he has no real message, no ability to be flexible, he sells doom laden racist snake oil politics that kind of work if he can sound a little bit funny to take the edge off the anger, this time round he has nothing, he cant come up with a pithy nickname to throw around, he has no coat tails, cant get any one else elected and never has been able to.
The only thing that could make any kind of difference at this stage would be some kind of external event, a 9/11 or the like, short of this Donny boy is going to stay home giving angry rambling 'press conferences' looking more and more out of touch, Vance will give his odd speeches to 30 or 40 reporters that make Guilianis 4 seasons landscaping event look like Kennedy in Berlin
I think the biggest risk for her is debates. She isn't a great communicator when it's off the cuff (IMO), and so she could end up looking 'unpresidential' as being a powerful and confident orator is a big decision factor for some people.
I think it's more likely she is just average at the debate, which would probably be good enough.
An interesting datapoint is that The Rest is Politics podcast crew still think Trump is a slight favourite. If the poll numbers continue for another few weeks then it will probably swing to Kamala being a favourite, but it won't be a blow out.
I really feel like having Walz as the communication piece is so smart and effective. It's also hard to factor that into the future. He communicates so well and is so relatable that I could see that really impact independents and regular republicans.
Dems will outperform the polls like they have since 2018 IMO
Trumpers are older and shout their love for the guy from the rooftops...the younger demographic that leans (more than leans) left is becoming harder and harder to poll. I also think the dems are purposely downplaying the polls for fear of 2016 when people stayed home because they thought it was in the bag and didn't want to wait in line.
Harris still has the convention and potential debates...Trump has more time to say stupid #### and look like an idiot
I think the biggest risk for her is debates. She isn't a great communicator when it's off the cuff (IMO), and so she could end up looking 'unpresidential' as being a powerful and confident orator is a big decision factor for some people.
Yes, voters are turned off by "unpresidential" language:
Dems will outperform the polls like they have since 2018 IMO
Trumpers are older and shout their love for the guy from the rooftops...the younger demographic that leans (more than leans) left is becoming harder and harder to poll. I also think the dems are purposely downplaying the polls for fear of 2016 when people stayed home because they thought it was in the bag and didn't want to wait in line.
Harris still has the convention and potential debates...Trump has more time to say stupid #### and look like an idiot
Why would anyone - in any scenario - change what's working? Especially in a situation such as this, where this no good actual reason for anyone to not think Trump is a wingnut and MAGA are all loons, but people still love him?
New Coke?
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Actually, the reason Coke went to New Coke, was because they were losing ground to Pepsi. And in blind taste tests, most people seemed to prefer New Coke to Coke.
And then they changed, and people revolted because they don't like change. That's an excellent lesson for Kamala to keep doing what she's doing.
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Brian Tyler Cohen is such a great social media communicator and political commentator. One of the best right now.
That guy drives me nuts. He's always there to steer your thoughts on what you're seeing. I hate YouTubers who take interesting clips and then try to persuade me to see them through their lens. Such a terrible trend on the left and right.
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That guy drives me nuts. He's always there to steer your thoughts on what you're seeing. I hate YouTubers who take interesting clips and then try to persuade me to see them through their lens. Such a terrible trend on the left and right.
Everyone does that though, to one extent or another. I don't buy into the notion that there is such thing as bias-free political commentary.
I don't know if you're going for the "being a centrist means not having bias" idea. But hopefully you're not.
I think a lot of times when people say "that person is trying to steer my thoughts" what they're really saying is that person is making a lot of great points but I don't want to admit it...
The way trump is headed the democrats don’t have to do anything. Continue to point and laugh as trump tries to stay relevant with asinine press conferences
His comments on the congressional medal of honour today were wild. No need to Change strategy at all. Let him bury himself
