Nice to hear from you, btw If you have the energy, it would be really interesting to get updates on what the talk is like on the Russian side. Those of us who don't understand Russian are always at a disadvantage trying to follow that stuff.
"Situation is difficult" is the only negative description, that seems to be allowed. Any war report reads like this:
Situation is difficult. Today our army downed 10 enemy missiles, 50 drones, destroyed 5 tanks and killed 20 terrorists (they mostly call Ukrainian soldiers "terrorists", but sometimes also neonazis). Situation remains difficult.
Anything beyond that seems prohibited. They don't say, how many rockets Ukrainian launched, they don't even claim that they interceped all of the rockets. They just say "we intercepted 10 rockets".
On more ideological level, there's strong demand for commentary, which creates a whirlwind of wannabe analysts offering their thoughts to all sorts of audiences. Whatever you want to hear, you will find someone saying it. However, if you ignore marginal or amateur takes, there are to main narratives.
Narrative 1. Russia, or Putin personally, wanted to restore USSR. He was bullying his neighbors, taking their lands piece by piece. But eventually his incompetent army, corrupted government, stupid yet loyal beaurocrats stole everything. Putin was misled into believing that he can take Kyiv in two weeks and it costed him dearly. Former greatness or, at least goodness, of Russia turned to rust, army is rotten and incompetent, starting this war was a horrible mistake, we should discuss peace immediately.
Narrative 2. Russia is cornered by NATO. It had no choice but to fight. This war was not about Russia being arrogant and overconfident. Conversely, Putin made it clear during his Feb 24th speech that NATO is coming at us and Russia has no choice but to respond. The march on Kyiv was a preemptive strike when NATO's attack was imminent. This is Russia's last stand against a mighty enemy. It was supposed to be hard. Russia was supposed to eventually lose, and only heroic effort, similar to that of WW2 can save us. Arguing that Russian leadership is incompetent is pointless when US president has no mental capacity to finish a sentence. Say what you will about competence of Russian generals, but US war in Afghanistan or Iraq was not a strike of genius either. Ukrainian offense last summer was a major fail. The reason why NATO is stronger is because they have more resources. They are not really sharper. Based on this framework of thought, the decision to start the war was correct, attacking first and attacking boldly was Russia's only chance against imminent NATO's invasion. The war is going hard, which is expected, Russia should continue to fight for its existence.
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Late night yesterday the full evacuation of Glushkovo county was ordered by governor of Kursk. Due to fog of war and total propaganda, official evacuation orders are one of the few hints on what is happening on the ground.
If it helps understand reports, a little note on Russian administrative division. Russia is divided into oblast, which is more or less like Canadian provinces. There are Kursk oblast, Belgorod oblast and Bryansk oblast in the area of war. Capital cities are Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk respectively, and sometimes in English language news they say Kursk but mean Kursk oblast rather than Kursk city. This is because Russian way is reverse of USA way. In USA if you say only word "Kansas" it means the state and if you mean city, you should say "Kansas city". In Russia is the opposite, if you say just "Kursk" it means city and if you mean the whole state, you say Kursk oblast. Oblasts are further divided into rayon, which is like county in USA.
So, last night a full mandatory evacuation of whole rayon was ordered.
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Goats, because--fun fact--consuming beef or cattle products is illegal and punishable by death in North Korea since they are only supposed to be used as working animals.
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Apparently, at least some of the evacuation orders were actually given by Ukrainians (by phone), with the idea that evacuees would block roads for incoming Russian troops and increase the chaos in the area.
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Hundreds of Russians who have refused to fight for various reasons – age, sickness, mental health – are reported to have been taken from a military base where they were being held and flown to Kursk https://twitter.com/user/status/1823860031223386532
Ukrainian forces disguised as Russian troops took control of Olgovka, fooling everyone. They rolled in with captured Russian gear, switched to blue armbands, and took over. https://twitter.com/user/status/1824044176738021486
Toretsk Direction: Things aren’t looking good in New York. Most of the city is under enemy control—they’ve pushed north, taken the phenol plant, and are advancing west, starting to attack our strongholds. The situation is extremely #####ed https://twitter.com/user/status/1824030408524091812
Earlier today, multiple milbloggers shared onboard footage of a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter destroying a Ukrainian convoy in Kursk with guided missile fire. Only one catch: The convoy was Russian https://twitter.com/user/status/1823944548403253453
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Ukrainian forces disguised as Russian troops took control of Olgovka, fooling everyone. They rolled in with captured Russian gear, switched to blue armbands, and took over. https://twitter.com/user/status/1824044176738021486
I don't think anyone cares that much, given the nature of this war, but that's at least a borderline warcrime btw, so I'm a bit surprised they would talk about it openly.
(Borderline because the details are a bit murky, including whether or not there was any battle.)
I wonder if this is a bit of a psyop though. If Russians feel like they can't trust people in Russian vehicles to be Russians, that could cause issues.
Last edited by Itse; 08-15-2024 at 09:21 AM.
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I don't think anyone cares that much, given the nature of this war, but that's at least a borderline warcrime btw, so I'm a bit surprised they would talk about it openly.
(Borderline because the details are a bit murky, including whether or not there was any battle.)
I wonder if this is a bit of a psyop though. If Russians feel like they can't trust people in Russian vehicles to be Russians, that could cause issues.
High chances this is just psyops. Ukrainians have been doing this extensively during this offensive. Calling in reports of Ukrainian troops to the Russian military in areas where they are not located resulting in Russian Air Force bombing their own convoys. Calling in evac of civilians along roads Russian reinforcements are coming from to slow them down. It adds to fog of war and just makes the Russian military question whether their own units are theirs.
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I don't think anyone cares that much, given the nature of this war, but that's at least a borderline warcrime btw, so I'm a bit surprised they would talk about it openly.
(Borderline because the details are a bit murky, including whether or not there was any battle.)
I wonder if this is a bit of a psyop though. If Russians feel like they can't trust people in Russian vehicles to be Russians, that could cause issues.
It is technically considered perfidy, which would be a war crime. I doubt it would be prosecuted, or a least punished that severely though. They are more concerned with people dressing like civilians or aid workers to trick foes, like what happens in the Palestinian conflict, because it breaks down the security of civilians.
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It is technically considered perfidy, which would be a war crime. I doubt it would be prosecuted, or a least punished that severely though. They are more concerned with people dressing like civilians or aid workers to trick foes, like what happens in the Palestinian conflict, because it breaks down the security of civilians.
I thought that as well too. But then I remember the thousands of war crimes russia has already committed, continues to commit, and will continue to commit, and this is well down at the bottom on the GAF list.
Any entity that bothers to investigate this needs a slap in the head, as there are many other priority crimes they can commit investigative resources to.
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It is technically considered perfidy, which would be a war crime. I doubt it would be prosecuted, or a least punished that severely though. They are more concerned with people dressing like civilians or aid workers to trick foes, like what happens in the Palestinian conflict, because it breaks down the security of civilians.
Additionally, if there wasn't any deaths or Russian military troops present, it's somewhat debatable whether this would even count as perfidy.
Leaning towards psyops in any case.
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I thought that as well too. But then I remember the thousands of war crimes russia has already committed, continues to commit, and will continue to commit, and this is well down at the bottom on the GAF list.
Any entity that bothers to investigate this needs a slap in the head, as there are many other priority crimes they can commit investigative resources to.
My thoughts as well.
The words "war crimes" sounds heavy, but there is a lot of real estate in there and they aren't all equal. For example, using an antique gun is considered a war crime, but it obviously isn't up there with bombing shopping centers, kidnapping children, or forcing POWs to fight for you.
Something like this wouldn't even be deemed severe enough to take up the court's time.
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Russia lost another Tu-22m-3 supersonic bomber. It's a $293 million plane capable of dropping nukes. I think it is at least the second one they lost this year.
Russian convicts from the Storm Z unit drank too much brew and opened fire at a group of their fellow soldiers. They immediately shot back at them in a friendly manner. One was killed, a few wounded, the rest just beaten and tied up. https://twitter.com/user/status/1824787769677300030
Russia launched another massive assault in the Kurakhiv direction with 27 units of equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles, and a buggy.
If you have the energy, it would be really interesting to get updates on what the talk is like on the Russian side. Those of us who don't understand Russian are always at a disadvantage trying to follow that stuff.
