American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[devo22]

also, really nice trolling to have your first rally with your running mate in Pennsylvania, only to reveal on the same day that it's not Shapiro. When does Trump start to whine on his joke of a social media platform about that? Now they have to change all the Anti-Shapiro ads again, on such short notice. So unfair!

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

If i were them I would have Shapiro come out and give a 15 minute introduction speech hyping the choice.

[devo22]

Pelosi reportedly pushed hard for Walz. Say what you will about her, but god damn, this woman pulls through. By all accounts pretty influential in getting Biden out of the race, now pushing Walz over Shapiro.

She should get one insider trade today, as a treat.

[photon]

Harris is now leading in all the major national poll averages which is a pretty big change. Even ahead on RCP, the last time a Dem led on RCP was a year ago.

Still in statistical tie territory but the trend is definitely in her direction.

[PepsiFree]

I have to skip by 90% of his posts as they seem actively designed to make you dumber but how is our local DEI critic/anti-vaxxer/Trump bootlicker handling the DEI hire of a straight middle aged white man as VP?

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I have to skip by 90% of his posts as they seem actively designed to make you dumber but how is our local DEI critic/anti-vaxxer/Trump bootlicker handling the DEI hire of a straight middle aged white man as VP?

Huh? I must have missed something

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I have to skip by 90% of his posts as they seem actively designed to make you dumber but how is our local DEI critic/anti-vaxxer/Trump bootlicker handling the DEI hire of a straight middle aged white man as VP?

White mean can't get hired because of DEI, it is obviously an evil policy that holds the white man down. Pure coincidence all of the VP candidates were white men

[ResAlien]

Nate Silver and Chris Cillizza don’t like it that’s how you know it’s good

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I have to skip by 90% of his posts as they seem actively designed to make you dumber but how is our local DEI critic/anti-vaxxer/Trump bootlicker handling the DEI hire of a straight middle aged white man as VP?

He needs to wait to be told how he feels about it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I have to skip by 90% of his posts as they seem actively designed to make you dumber but how is our local DEI critic/anti-vaxxer/Trump bootlicker handling the DEI hire of a straight middle aged white man as VP?

He's waiting for the talking points to be issued by his Glorious Leader, or rather, by the people who are writing those talking points for said Glorious Leader. Can't start posting until he knows what Walz's new nickname is, after all.

I'm not really sure I love the fact that the first event for the Harris campaign is scheduled for this evening rather than overlapping the Vance event earlier in the day. Need to figure out a way to get some of your own free media rather than letting the news networks just play whatever Vance comes up with as the preferred definition of this ticket all afternoon.

[devo22]

no need to wait for talking points, it's going to be the same old crap. They'll paint him as a super-progressive devil and just rehash the things they've said about Biden and Harris. They have nothing else, after all.

Cool contrast between the extremely likeable midwest dad and the creepy couch-shagging weirdo though.

[Wastedyouth]

Fact:

- Trump said he would #### his own daughter, if she wasn't his daughter. Words out of his own mouth. Even if he was joking (and he has said it multiple times in multiple interviews), that is a really disturbing joke.

- Trump thinks, 1. Hannibal Lecter is a real person. 2. That he is a very good guy.


You don't need anything else. Seriously. Those two things alone should give you enough red flags to say, hmmmm.

[devo22]

I remain convinced that Trump just keeps bringing up Hannibal Lecter because he loves that "he wants to have you for dinner" punchline so much. He's a child, after all.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Nate Silver and Chris Cillizza don’t like it that’s how you know it’s good

They must be looking at it purely from the electoral vote angle and Harris taking a gamble they still take PA without Shapiro. I think Walz is fine given the Gaza issue and the fact that Shapiro is Jewish. I really don’t know how that would have played out but I feel like swing voters might have hated the combo. Sounds like the set up to a bad racist joke that would have played right into Trump’s playbook, a black woman and a Jew walk into the White House…

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Silver didn't say he doesn't like it, he thinks it's "fine", a "safe" pick with more upside than Tim Kaine in terms of Walz's likability. He just thinks Shapiro was the better pick because it has more upside in terms of potentially helping her win PA, which she absolutely must win. It's a reasonable take.

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Fact:

- Trump said he would #### his own daughter, if she wasn't his daughter. Words out of his own mouth. Even if he was joking (and he has said it multiple times in multiple interviews), that is a really disturbing joke.

- Trump thinks, 1. Hannibal Lecter is a real person. 2. That he is a very good guy.


You don't need anything else. Seriously. Those two things alone should give you enough red flags to say, hmmmm.

Neither of those are actually facts. Trump said, specifically, "If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her". He also said "she's got the best body", and reportedly (though there isn't tape of this one) told a WaPo columnist, "Is it wrong to be more sexually attracted to your own daughter than your wife?" Which... yes, Donald, that is very wrong, you ####ing creep.

On the latter front, while he has referenced Hannibal Lecter multiple times in speeches he's never said that he thinks Lecter is or was a real person (he has called him "the late Hannibal Lecter" for some reason, despite the fact that the character doesn't die in the movies, and none of the actors who have played him are dead).

So, yeah, those are the facts.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Nate Silver and Chris Cillizza don’t like it that’s how you know it’s good

Nate Silver's Twitter thread on the pick looks pretty reasonable. If the election ends up super tight, PA will be all that matters. He is ok with the Walz pick though.

He's mostly concerned about the appearance of leaving Shapiro at the alter and teasing him as the favorite, and if that could cost some PA votes. That seems like a valid observation.

[photon]

Trump's already saying that not picking Shapiro is anti-semitic.

I guess Trump thinks Shapiro isn't a "bad Jew" like he called Harris' husband?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Both are solid choices, I leaned Shapiro just because of his Obama style. He has that charisma to him, Walz actually does as well just in a different manner.

[Muta]

I like Walz for the simple fact that he was the one who first called Trump/Vance 'weird'. Watching the GOP cult lose their minds over this is very entertaining.

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by photon

Harris is now leading in all the major national poll averages which is a pretty big change. Even ahead on RCP, the last time a Dem led on RCP was a year ago.

Still in statistical tie territory but the trend is definitely in her direction.

I just want to touch on this because I hear it all the time. Being "within the margin of error" is not a tie... The common +/- 3.5% points 19 times out of 20 means there will be an error as high as (or higher than) 3.5% in only 5% of survey runs. In the other 95%, the error is lower and in over 2/3 of cases, the error will be less than half that.

Secondly, and more importantly, when looking at an aggregate of multiple polls, the confidence interval shrinks with every poll that's added, assuming they're independent.