Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingred89
Yeah baseball prospects are the biggest crapshoots in professional sports. For every Paul Skenes you have a hundred top ranked prospects that don't amount to anything. It's all about building depth in the system and provide enough skilled players to learn off one another and hope someone can put it together in the show.
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Yeah it's interesting to look back at the 1st couple rounds of MLB drafts and see who actually panned out as an all star.
Like you'd expect the guys drafted in 2013-2019 to have started to make an impact by now...and usually it's a handful of guys out of the top 80 picks.
2019: 9 / 78 (Rutschman, Witt Jr, Greene, Abrams, Jung, Manoah, Carroll, Kirby, Henderson)
2018: 4 / 78 (Bohm, Gilbert, McClanahan, Gray)
2017: 5 / 78 (Greene, Rogers, Ramos, Houck, Rooker)
2016: 5 / 77 (Ragans, Smith, Reynolds, Alonso, Bichette)
2015: 9 / 78 (Swanson, Bregman, Tucker, Benintendi, Happ, Naylor, Buehler, Soroka, Riley)
2014: 8 / 74 (Rodon, Schwarber, Nola, Hoffman, Conforto, Turner, Chapman, Keller)
2013: 8 / 73 (Bryant, Meadows, Anderson, Judge, Lorenzen, Knebel, McMahon, Williams)
And some of those guys made all-star teams...but I'm not even sure I'd call them star players.
MLB draft tends to be the one where luck, and post-draft development probably plays the biggest role. Even within top 5 picks it's generally a crap shoot if they become an impact player.
Unless you think a guy is going to be an absolute super star and a top 10 prospect in all of baseball you probably get more value out of trading them in the MLB.