Athletic team goaltending rankings: Calgary #5

[Jay Random]

NHL Edge is the most disappointing use of technology since the FoxTrax puck.

[Sandman]

I'm not the biggest Dustin Wolf fan in the world, as I'm one of those short-sighted p**cks that prefers my goalies to be tall and European; however, I am actually encouraged by his numbers in 2023-24. Wolfie was 6-4 in his last 10 games, and sported an .897 SV%, which are pretty respectable numbers when considering the team (specifically the defense) that he played behind, and the fact that he's a rookie.

He finished 7-7-1, with an .893 SV%- numbers that may look bad to most, but point to reasons for optimism in my book. I've been a fan of Vladar's since he was a teenager, and I firmly believe he has much more to show, but I'm worried about how well he'll fare coming back from this injury. Normally, I would say that I'm looking forward to finally seeing a healthy Vladar on the Flames, but I'm not really sure.

[Groot]

I prefer to look at the gamelog for Wolf, as it paints a picture of a goalie that took some lumps in his first extended look in the NHL, went back down to the AHL and dominated, then had noticeable improvement when he was called back up.

His first 6 games last year (5 starter 1 relief) pre trade deadline, he had 1 game above. 900 (.933), two games just under (.897 and .895) and then three mid to low .800's (.806 .846 relief game .872)

After the trade deadline, he started 10 games. With a worse team in front of him, he had his worst game at .778 (14 goals 18 shots) but then had 3 mid to high .800 (.857 .864 .875). But then he had 3 games above .940 (.941 .947 .966) and then 3 more above .900 (.909 .909 .926)

The final 10 games were that of an NHL starter.

[CSharp]

Who cares. They can rank Flames #1 if they want. Doesn't mean they're gonna make the playoffs or the Cup this year or next or in 5 years, especially with what they have right now. Flames can put the Vezena and Jennings goalies in net this season and I'll bet this forum's gonna bitch how bad they are.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Who cares. They can rank Flames #1 if they want. Doesn't mean they're gonna make the playoffs or the Cup this year or next or in 5 years, especially with what they have right now. Flames can put the Vezena and Jennings goalies in net this season and I'll bet this forum's gonna bitch how bad they are.

Jennings is a team defense award.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Record is a poor way to evaluate goaltenders. The Flames scored 4.48 goals/game in 2022-23 Vladar decisions and 2.72 goals/game in the rest of them.

During those three seasons, Vladar had -3.8, -8.4, and -12.5 GSAE. He's 66th out of 76 at GSAE/60 in 2022-23 (minimum 12 games), and 71st out of 71 at GSAE/60 in 2023-24. He's bad.

No reason to spend any more than league minimum on someone like that, unless you're Treliving.

GSAE is a horribly flawed stat. We have discussed this many, many times. Doesn’t account for shot placement which is usually a function of time and space and the Flames D outside whatever pairing Tanev was on has been horrid for years.

We have looked at games in excruciating detail and demonstrated how woefully useless that stat can be

The whole point of playing hockey is winning games.

Record is pretty much one of the most important things

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Jennings is a team defense award.

This I agree with for sure


A large portion of every goalie’s stats is a reflection of team defense

When Minnesota was a trapping snooze fest and Roloson and Manny Fernandez were rocking save percentages above .930, they weren’t near the best goalies in the league.

Similarly, look for former Boston goalies to “regress” when they move to new locations

[Geeoff]

It seems to be a mathematical formula which values cap hit very highly? As in, Calgary's goaltending is cheap and therefore ranks highly

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

It seems to be a mathematical formula which values cap hit very highly? As in, Calgary's goaltending is cheap and therefore ranks highly

Cheap and Wheeler loves Wolf so Calgary scores high on two of the three
Really comes down to how much one believes in Wolf

[Vinny01]

Wolf is the Gaudreau of this rebuild in my opinion. He is an undersized late round pick who has dominated in every league he has played in but until he can prove it in the NHL there will be doubts. If he is successful the chances this team is able to turn it around and make the playoffs around the time the new rink opens increases a lot.

[FanIn80]

I think what people might be missing about "goals saved above expected" is that it's not a measurement of goals vs saves or shots etc... it's a measurement of "expected goals" vs all goals allowed.

What's an "Expected Goal" (xG)?

The chance of an unblocked shot attempt being a goal. For example, a rebound shot in the slot may have a 50% of going in and be worth 0.5 expected goals, while a shot from the blueline while short handed may be worth 0.01 expected goals. The expected value of each shot attempt is calculated by the MoneyPuck Expected Goals model. Expected goals is commonly abbreviated as "xGoals". Blocked shot attempts are valued at 0 xGoals. The expected goal value assumes than a player of average shooting ability is taking the shot. A player's shooting talent is not factored into this metric. Another metric, called "shooting talent expected goals" is available that does that.

What is "Goals Saved Above Expected" (GSAx)?

Expected Goals against minus the actual number of goals the goalie has let in. A positive number means the goalie is stopping more goals than an average goalie would.

So you take the total of all expected goals a goalie has face, and you subtract all goals they've allowed. If you end up with a positive result, it means the goalie has allowed less goals than they were expected to. A negative means they've allowed more goals than they were expected to.

It doesn't mean that all goals against are considered equal. It means if you allow 60 goals, but only 40 of them were actually expected to go in (based on the above definition of an Expected Goal), then you've allowed 20 more goals than you should have. If you allow 40, but you were expected to allow 60, then you've saved 20 more goals than you should have.

Shot selection, location, etc is already factored into whether an expected goal has occured or not, so trying to argue that "all goals are not created equal" is moot in this case. The stat is already aware of that, and has already factored it all in.


Edit: I don't mean to sound "matter of fact" about the validity of the stat itself, I'm only confident in my understanding of what the stat is and how to apply it (in addition to other factors) in my thinking about a goalie's abilities. I'm more than willing to be convinced that the stat is flawed, but I need logical evidence to support the idea... and the idea has to originate from a demonstrated understanding of what the stat actually represents.

Edit 2: The quoted definitions above are from Monepuck (they also provide a "learn more" link to Natural StatTrick for xGs).

[icarus]

IMO the Flames have two clear top hockey imperatives:
1. Acquire quality young players and prospects
2. Do whatever is necessary to help Wolf realise his potential at the NHL level

As Flames fans we know better than anyone that goalie prospects might not hit at NHL level.

We really need to hope and pray Wolf bucks the trend.

[SeanCharles]

I don’t know what is with all the Wolf negativity?

I get it, goalie prospects have pretty much let us down here for as long as I can remember but when was the last time we had a guy with Wolfs pedigree?

He is widely regarded as a top 10 goalie prospect with some ranking him as high as #3 in the mix with Askarov and Wallstadt.

The kid is like 2cm shorter than Shesterkin, and 3cm taller than Saros..it’s not like he is Vernon’s size or anything..

Why not wait to see if he fails or not before we write him off?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I don’t know what is with all the Wolf negativity?

I get it, goalie prospects have pretty much let us down here for as long as I can remember but when was the last time we had a guy with Wolfs pedigree?

He is widely regarded as a top 10 goalie prospect with some ranking him as high as #3 in the mix with Askarov and Wallstadt.

The kid is like 2cm shorter than Shesterkin, and 3cm taller than Saros..it’s not like he is Vernon’s size or anything..

Why not wait to see if he fails or not before we write him off?

I don't think it's negativity and more surprise that the Flames are ranked this high given Wolf is not a proven commodity in the NHL and Vladar is a mediocre backup goaltender. Nobody is denying Wolf's potential but until things play out we really don't know how things will pan out for him in the NHL.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I don’t know what is with all the Wolf negativity?

I get it, goalie prospects have pretty much let us down here for as long as I can remember but when was the last time we had a guy with Wolfs pedigree?

He is widely regarded as a top 10 goalie prospect with some ranking him as high as #3 in the mix with Askarov and Wallstadt.

The kid is like 2cm shorter than Shesterkin, and 3cm taller than Saros..it’s not like he is Vernon’s size or anything..

Why not wait to see if he fails or not before we write him off?

No one is writing him off, but the successful goalies in the NHL at his size is far and few. Especially since goalies as a whole are hard to predict.

We are all waiting and seeing as his development is the one thing that could shorten the rebuild.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

The whole point of playing hockey is winning games.

Record is pretty much one of the most important things

So, goalies on the better teams are automatically better because they win more games?

Records are based on the team as a whole.

Or was Georgiev really one of the best goalies in the league last year.

[Jacks]

Been burned so many times I'll believe it when I see it. That would be such a big boost to the rebuild if Wolf could realize his potential though.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I don’t know what is with all the Wolf negativity?

I get it, goalie prospects have pretty much let us down here for as long as I can remember but when was the last time we had a guy with Wolfs pedigree?

He is widely regarded as a top 10 goalie prospect with some ranking him as high as #3 in the mix with Askarov and Wallstadt.

The kid is like 2cm shorter than Shesterkin, and 3cm taller than Saros..it’s not like he is Vernon’s size or anything..

Why not wait to see if he fails or not before we write him off?

I don't know if it's negativity. In my case it's just "doubt". I would LOVE to be wrong.

He has dominated at every level. But this is the NHL, and it is a clear cut above any other league. When I watched him play, he looked like he was leaving a lot of net open. I don't think his athleticism will be sufficient to compensate against guys who can put the puck into a 2 inch gap.

I hope I'm totally off and look stupid by EOY. I would have no issue with that.

No matter what, he's going to play behind garbage defense the next 2 years, so the advanced stats are going to be important - even if he does "great" he's probably going to get lit up most nights. I'm open to him being a great goalie with awful stats on a really porous team.

Make me eat crow kid.

[Domoic]

Since Wolf is basically the same size as Hasek - I am going with that precedent career arc for Wolf.

[Calgary4LIfe]

When I look at Wolf, I believe he is the next Flames' starter. I had my doubts when he was picked by the Flames, to be fair, even though it was such a wonderful feel-good story with his parents and him in attendance that day. I stayed skeptical for a while as his junior team was a very strong defensive team year-to-year.



However, at some point, you just have to trust that the consistently in his excellency is enough. Every single season he proves himself extraordinary at every level. Not just 'compentet', but extraordinary.


Then finally he goes to the NHL, has some bad games, but has some great games too. Sure, NHL superstars will pick corners on him. They do that with every goalie, however. I never liked Gillies because I didn't think he was quick enough. I don't think it was Gillies' injuries that really prevented him from having an NHL career - it was his lack of speed, positioning and second-and-third efforts.



Part of the reason why Kiprusoff was so good was how hard he competed. I didn't see that in Gillies. I saw that in Parsons early on which got me very excited for him, but I think in his case, injuries and personal issue ruined his career. Wolf has that in him. This kid doesn't give up on pucks. He is lightning fast. He has great positioning. I do think he will end up showing himself this season as a goalie you can win with.