Breaking: Biden will not seek re-election

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

What are people arguing here - if Biden is fit to be president of the most powerful country in the world, or would Trump be a better POTUS than Biden? Because those are completely separate questions, and the answer to both is clearly "No".

Biden being better than Trump doesn't matter, it's completely irrelevant because based on his rate of decline over the last four years, there's no way he should be allowed to serve another four year term.

The question being argued is whether or not the Trump people are in any position to be criticizing Democrats for not trying to pressure Biden sooner to step aside. The answer is clearly no. They're also in no position to be accusing the people around Biden of some kind of conspiracy to cover up information about him.

Never forget, the people around Trump keep enabling a guy who falsified business records to hide a hush money payment he made to conceal the fact that he cheated on his wife while she was home with his 3 month old child... and hid that information from the public leading up to the 2016 election.

He also hid the fact that he stockpiled classified documents at MaraLago and sold access to them to foreign billionaires.

Maybe, just maybe, they have no place accusing the people close to Biden of some imaginary conspiracy.

Biden, even in some imaginary scenario where he does have dementia, would still be waaaaaaaaaay less of a threat to the country as president than Trump would be. So no, it's not irrelevant, it's entirely relevant. If the GOP had spent the last year pressuring Trump to drop out of the race, maybe they would have some credibility. But they didn't and they don't.

[GGG]

I don’t think it’s just Trump people doing the criticizing. You sometimes get accused of being a Trump person if you are doing the criticizing. Sometimes you even get accused of your criticisms assisting the Trump campaign.

So I dont think your characterization of the discussion is correct. I think it’s you arguing he is still fit to serve another term but wouldn’t win and others saying it’s bananas to think he’s is suitable to serve another term

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by GGG

I don’t think it’s just Trump people doing the criticizing. You sometimes get accused of being a Trump person if you are doing the criticizing. Sometimes you even get accused of your criticisms assisting the Trump campaign.

So I dont think your characterization of the discussion is correct. I think it’s you arguing he is still fit to serve another term but wouldn’t win and others saying it’s bananas to think he’s is suitable to serve another term

That’s exactly my interpretation of the argument here - you have a lot of people in this thread trying to justify Biden’s abilities and mental state. I dont see any (or many) people talking about Trump people criticizing Biden to not step aside.

As someone living in the States, there is so much projecting of Canadian political thinking in this discussion, it’s actually hilarious. There is shockingly little understanding of the American political landscape and why the polls look like they do.

[GGG]

Can you expand on your last sentence of why the pools look like they?

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by GGG

Can you expand on your last sentence of why the pools look like they?

A lot of posts in this thread about how the only people voting for Trump are uneducated far right MAGA idiots, and how good Biden has been because that’s how American politics is portrayed in Canada (and the rest of the world). “Dumb Americans” is the classic trope so people can get on their high horse about how their country is better.

In reality, there are some very valid criticisms of Biden. His approval rating has been dropping for a long time now and he’s been trailing Trump in the polls for a lot longer than people on here like to admit. He’s been polling (relatively) weakly with black and Latino voters, which aren’t exactly the MAGA demographic. One example is that his border policies had been atrocious and it was an issue that was very visible to a lot of Americans.

“Sleepy Joe” and Biden’s decline has been well publicized and talked about down here for a while, it wasn’t some revelation with the debate. I’m not sure why people are saying it’s a conspiracy theory that Biden’s team has kept a pretty tight lid on him publicly, that’s pretty obvious for anyone who’s followed American politics.

Many people simply didn’t want to vote for Biden, and it wasn’t just dumb Americans.

[starseed]

Perhaps many people forgot that Trump shut down the bipartisan bill that was meant to fix the border issues. The bill that Republicans largely designed.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by starseed

Perhaps many people forgot that Trump shut down the bipartisan bill that was meant to fix the border issues. The bill that Republicans largely designed.

No, most people just aren’t going to give him a free pass on that because it took him three years until an election year to try and do something about it. The data doesn’t lie

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68428272

And before people jump down my throat, I actually think overall Biden was a good President. Other than immigration, I agree with most of his policies and think he did a good job. But I can tell you that even in a very blue state, that sentiment is not widely shared.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

A lot of posts in this thread about how the only people voting for Trump are uneducated far right MAGA idiots, and how good Biden has been because that’s how American politics is portrayed in Canada (and the rest of the world). “Dumb Americans” is the classic trope so people can get on their high horse about how their country is better.

In reality, there are some very valid criticisms of Biden. His approval rating has been dropping for a long time now and he’s been trailing Trump in the polls for a lot longer than people on here like to admit. He’s been polling (relatively) weakly with black and Latino voters, which aren’t exactly the MAGA demographic. One example is that his border policies had been atrocious and it was an issue that was very visible to a lot of Americans.

“Sleepy Joe” and Biden’s decline has been well publicized and talked about down here for a while, it wasn’t some revelation with the debate. I’m not sure why people are saying it’s a conspiracy theory that Biden’s team has kept a pretty tight lid on him publicly, that’s pretty obvious for anyone who’s followed American politics.

Many people simply didn’t want to vote for Biden, and it wasn’t just dumb Americans.

A few things

- if the choices really did come down to Trump vs Biden, the only sensible choice would be to vote for Biden. It's a hard truth, and while some don't want to hear it, it's nevertheless the truth.

- I never suggested there were no valid criticisms of Biden. He should have got control of the border a lot sooner. Nevertheless, by blocking the border bill, Trump has shown that he never cared about the border, he only cared about spreading fear and hate to score political points. Another criticism of Biden I had was his unwillingness to put his foot down to Netanyahu.

- Biden's tumble in the polls had mostly to do with his communication struggles, and inability to debate at a reasonable level. The perception of him being in mental decline and too old for the job is something he was unable to overcome.

- The Biden team limited his public appearances to try and limit the damage to his public perception. That part everyone knows. The conspiracy theory, however, is that he has dementia or some other mental impairment that prevents him from doing his job, and that the presidency is secretly being controlled by people around him. This is the nonsense being peddled around, and those peddling it are carrying water for Trump and his people.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

- if the choices really did come down to Trump vs Biden, the only sensible choice would be to vote for Biden. It's a hard truth, and while some don't want to hear it, it's nevertheless the truth.

This is the part that is very much a Canadian perception, and I can tell you first hand, as simple as this seems for you, it’s not this cut and dry with Americans. You have to understand the scale of the USA and how diverse it is in every facet in life, whether it be culturally, economically, or frankly, politically. The hard truth that some people don’t want to hear is that a significant portion of the population, life was better under Trump, and that’s going to influence how they vote. Is it the right decision for the nation as a whole? No, but you can’t expect people to vote that way.

Originally Posted by Mathgod

- I never suggested there were no valid criticisms of Biden. He should have got control of the border a lot sooner. Nevertheless, by blocking the border bill, Trump has shown that he never cared about the border, he only cared about spreading fear and hate to score political points. Another criticism of Biden I had was his unwillingness to put his foot down to

I don’t disagree with anything here, but you have to realize that the perception here is much more that Biden failed to control the border, rather than Trump trying to score political points. It’s a huge black mark on Biden’s presidency.

Originally Posted by Mathgod

- Biden's tumble in the polls had mostly to do with his communication struggles, and inability to debate at a reasonable level. The perception of him being in mental decline and too old for the job is something he was unable to overcome..

Biden’s weak polling has been happening LONG before the debate. That perception of him being too old and in mental decline has been common for quite a while. The debate fiasco was just the culmination of that and finally putting pressure on the Democrats to do something about it

Originally Posted by Mathgod

- The Biden team limited his public appearances to try and limit the damage to his public perception. That part everyone knows. The conspiracy theory, however, is that he has dementia or some other mental impairment that prevents him from doing his job, and that the presidency is secretly being controlled by people around him. This is the nonsense being peddled around, and those peddling it are carrying water for Trump and his people.

Don’t disagree with anything here, but just think you’re splitting hairs a bit.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The other part of it is his Presidency has been utterly brilliant, I have no doubt historians will look back at Biden as one of the most successful POTUS's ever bearing in mind the cards he's been dealt, a divided fractious country, a GOP controlled (and I use that term loosely) house, a right wing SC, the invasion of Ukraine and he has still managed to steer the economy back to world dominance, repatriated vast amounts of industry and pass more legislation than anyone since Reagan.

I suspect most in the party, like myself, where wondering when the hell the average voter was going to recognize they had just lived through the worst financial crisis the world had seen since 1974 and barely been touched by it, and perhaps that is the problem, most Americans don't realize that the world economy has fallen apart because it just hasn't touched them, but if there was any justice, or at least if previous elections were a model Biden should be unassailable, I think it's just taken the Party a while to realize that the old rules don't apply, and that in the case of Trump reality doesn't apply, he just lies to his acolytes and we live in a world were voters seem more comfortable with simple lies than the truth.

It is bizarre that Americans seem oblivious to how they’re emerged from the pandemic with a far stronger economy and higher incomes than anywhere in the world. They’ve left Europe and Asia in the dust. And no, the wealth isn’t just being hoovered up by the rich. The poorest 20 per cent of Americans haven’t seen their real incomes rise this fast in decades.

But polarization is so bad it seems Republicans can’t bring themselves to acknowledge a strong economy if a Democrat occupies the white house. And many on the left are doomers who reflexively compare the U.S. unfavourably to the rest of the developed world.

The only other explanation I can think of inflation is such a shock to the population - many of whom have never experienced significant inflation in their adult lives - that it negates all other economic gains and metrics.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It is bizarre that Americans seem oblivious to how they’re emerged from the pandemic with a far better economy and higher incomes than anywhere in the world. They’ve left Europe and Asia in the dust. And no, the wealth isn’t just being hoovered up by the rich. The poorest 20 per cent of Americans haven’t seen their real incomes rise this fast in decades.

But polarization is so bad it seems Republicans can’t bring themselves to acknowledge a strong economy if a Democrat occupies the white house. And many on the left reflexively compare the U.S. unfavourably to the rest of the developed world.

The only other explanation I can think of inflation is such a shock to the population - many of whom have never experienced significant inflation in their adult lives - that it negates all other economic gains and metrics.

I think for a lot of Americans its just a totally foreign concept to consider things beyond their own border. Even if they're aware of int'l news like Ukraine and Palestine, I don't know that it's very natural for them to really grasp what life is like elsewhere. This is a very broad brush of course.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It is bizarre that Americans seem oblivious to how they’re emerged from the pandemic with a far stronger economy and higher incomes than anywhere in the world. They’ve left Europe and Asia in the dust. And no, the wealth isn’t just being hoovered up by the rich. The poorest 20 per cent of Americans haven’t seen their real incomes rise this fast in decades.

I'd be curious to see the data on that. Everything I've seen points to stagnant real income across most income levels. Median real income, median household income, and disposable income have all been flat or have declined in the last 4-5 years. GDP per capita has gone up, but given that income hasn't, that would suggest that any wealth that's getting generated is finding its way into asset prices rather than wages.

And of course, it's not just a question of money. US life expectancy is downright awful at this point. The US's 2023 Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy is now 69th in the world, and is closer to Iraq, Syria, Guatemala, and Cambodia than it is to Canada's. And they are 180th of 183 countries in terms of improvement in that metric since the year 2000, ahead of only Venezuela, Dominican Republic, and Sudan, gaining only 0.3 years in that period.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I'd be curious to see the data on that. Everything I've seen points to stagnant real income across most income levels. Median real income, median household income, and disposable income have all been flat or have declined in the last 4-5 years. GDP per capita has gone up, but given that income hasn't, that would suggest that any wealth that's getting generated is finding its way into asset prices rather than wages.

And of course, it's not just a question of money. US life expectancy is downright awful at this point. The US's 2023 Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy is now 69th in the world, and is closer to Iraq, Syria, Guatemala, and Cambodia than it is to Canada's. And they are 180th of 183 countries in terms of improvement in that metric since the year 2000, ahead of only Venezuela, Dominican Republic, and Sudan, gaining only 0.3 years in that period.

Those comparison points are really grim.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I'd be curious to see the data on that. Everything I've seen points to stagnant real income across most income levels. Median real income, median household income, and disposable income have all been flat or have declined in the last 4-5 years. GDP per capita has gone up, but given that income hasn't, that would suggest that any wealth that's getting generated is finding its way into asset prices rather than wages.

And of course, it's not just a question of money. US life expectancy is downright awful at this point. The US's 2023 Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy is now 69th in the world, and is closer to Iraq, Syria, Guatemala, and Cambodia than it is to Canada's. And they are 180th of 183 countries in terms of improvement in that metric since the year 2000, ahead of only Venezuela, Dominican Republic, and Sudan, gaining only 0.3 years in that period.

None of this is wrong, but what does that have to do with the economy? Most of that is because of the incredible fractured and dysfunctional health care system, which seems to be problematic regardless of the money spent on it, either public or private.

Outside of a complete revamping of the system, which seems impossible under the current makeup of the congress, what could any president really do to fix this?

BTW, a couple of great pieces of legislature under Biden's term helped to control essential drug prices and required fair estimates from health care providers for medical care. Both of these should do a lot to drive healthcare prices down in the coming decade, but he won't be around long enough to take credit for it.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I'd be curious to see the data on that. Everything I've seen points to stagnant real income across most income levels. Median real income, median household income, and disposable income have all been flat or have declined in the last 4-5 years. GDP per capita has gone up, but given that income hasn't, that would suggest that any wealth that's getting generated is finding its way into asset prices rather than wages.

From the U.S. Treasury report:

As a result, earnings have outpaced increases in prices such that real wages have increased since before the pandemic. Real weekly earnings for the median worker grew 1.7 percent between 2019 and 2023.[3] This means that one week of pay for the median worker now buys more than a week of pay did in 2019, despite higher prices. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 1, the increases in earnings are by no means concentrated at the top: in fact, they skew toward the middle class and the lower end of the income distribution. The 25th percentile of the wage distribution saw their nominal weekly earnings grow by $143, from $611 in 2019 to $754 in 2023. When adjusted for inflation, this amounts to a 3.2 percent increase in real earnings.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featu...9%20and%202023.

International comparison.

Spoiler!

From the Center for American Progress

In November 2023, nearly 6 in 10 workers (57 percent) earned higher annual inflation-adjusted wages than the year before, a share higher than its 2017–2019 pre-pandemic average. The median inflation-adjusted change in workers’ hourly earnings was about 45 cents, which translates to a more than $900 annual increase for a worker who works full time, year-round...

… Real average wage growth for a typical worker has seen the second-fastest recovery during this recession recovery of all five recession recoveries since 1980. Notably, the current economic recovery is the only one in which robust real wage growth has occurred in tandem with a rapid recovery of the unemployment rate.

https://www.americanprogress.org/art...y-than-prices/

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

None of this is wrong, but what does that have to do with the economy? Most of that is because of the incredible fractured and dysfunctional health care system, which seems to be problematic regardless of the money spent on it, either public or private.

Outside of a complete revamping of the system, which seems impossible under the current makeup of the congress, what could any president really do to fix this?

That's fair, but if "the economy doing well" doesn't lead to people feeling like things are going well for them, you can't really expect "the economy is doing well" to motivate people to vote.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

As someone living in the States, there is so much projecting of Canadian political thinking in this discussion, it’s actually hilarious. There is shockingly little understanding of the American political landscape and why the polls look like they do.

Completely agree with the bolded and have been saying this for years. Thank you for acknowledging the same. The disconnect is what makes these discussions so painful to read at times.

Originally Posted by ThePrince

A lot of posts in this thread about how the only people voting for Trump are uneducated far right MAGA idiots, and how good Biden has been because that’s how American politics is portrayed in Canada (and the rest of the world). “Dumb Americans” is the classic trope so people can get on their high horse about how their country is better.

This is mostly true. What we have in the United States is team politics and a very intellectually lazy electorate. Most people vote for the team they have supported their whole lives (what they raised to cheer for) and don't bother to look past the false platitudes that pass as platforms. Truth be told, the two parties aren't much different. They will tell you that they are, but their actions speak much louder than their false platitudes.

In reality, there are some very valid criticisms of Biden. His approval rating has been dropping for a long time now and he’s been trailing Trump in the polls for a lot longer than people on here like to admit.

This is because of inflation and what people perceive to be the economy. Sadly, most people do not understand fiscal policy or the how long it takes for political policy to impact the nation's economic engine. To see what a political policy has wrought you have to wait two years to feel its effect. They inflation we felt was because of Trump policies. You don't cut all those taxes and give away all the money he did without seeing inflation. What made it worse and slowed the response from Biden policy is the feckless nature and piss poor job congress has done to get ANYTHING accomplished. They're pretty much locked in their asinine games of one upmanship and are doing nothing to improve the situation of the nation as a whole. Congress has a greater influence here than any care to admit, and congress right now is a carnival sideshow.

He’s been polling (relatively) weakly with black and Latino voters, which aren’t exactly the MAGA demographic. One example is that his border policies had been atrocious and it was an issue that was very visible to a lot of Americans.

This is a media driven narrative that doesn't hold much water IMO. Biden has actually followed much of the Trump doctrine when it comes to the border with the exception of the methods to "build the wall". There is still plenty of wall building going on - one of the companies that builds the partitions is down the road from where I live - but the real big investments in the wall are in the virtual wall building. The investments in sensors and observation technology are through the roof. He's also encouraging the use of the national guard to fortify the efforts at the border. The same policies exist, the Biden admin just does it with a lot more finese.

“Sleepy Joe” and Biden’s decline has been well publicized and talked about down here for a while, it wasn’t some revelation with the debate. I’m not sure why people are saying it’s a conspiracy theory that Biden’s team has kept a pretty tight lid on him publicly, that’s pretty obvious for anyone who’s followed American politics.

BOTH candidates are in major decline. Both display physical and cognitive decline. Biden struggles to find his words while Trump babbles nonsensical verbal diarrhea. Both are indicators of cognitive decline. Biden struggles with his balance while Trump's fine motor skills are all but gone. Trump is getting unmercilessly mocked for his golf swing and putting stroke, but that is indicators of age and cognitive decline. They both should be disqualified for the same reasons. The fact that one side ignores the concern is just more support for the claim of a cultish following.

Many people simply didn’t want to vote for Biden, and it wasn’t just dumb Americans.

Agreed. But there are many people that simply want to vote for Trump - because he owns the libs and says the ignorant #### they haven't had the sack in the past to say themselves. I classify those people as dumb Americans, not for what they say, but because the policies they support hurt them as badly - many times more - than the libs they are hoping Trump will own. That is stupid. When you vote for someone that is going to hurt you, that is just plan ####ing stupid.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It is bizarre that Americans seem oblivious to how they’re emerged from the pandemic with a far stronger economy and higher incomes than anywhere in the world. They’ve left Europe and Asia in the dust. And no, the wealth isn’t just being hoovered up by the rich. The poorest 20 per cent of Americans haven’t seen their real incomes rise this fast in decades.

But polarization is so bad it seems Republicans can’t bring themselves to acknowledge a strong economy if a Democrat occupies the white house. And many on the left reflexively compare the U.S. unfavourably to the rest of the developed world.

The only other explanation I can think of inflation is such a shock to the population - many of whom have never experienced significant inflation in their adult lives - that it negates all other economic gains and metrics.

It's kind of just a matter that FJB inflation is part of the vernacular for a big chunk of the country. Keep repeating it over and over and it becomes trues that it is his fault. Add in a little confirmation bias that Democrat policies cause inflation, and that's that.

It's pretty easy for everyone to see that prices have gone up more rapidly than in most periods of their life and inflation affects everyone. It's not so easy to understand that unfunded in a hot economy started the ball rolling, and COVID mitigation measures accelerated inflation. There was going to be some pain at some point with either recession and unemployment or high interest rates and some continued inflation.

It's a hard sell to the electorate that the country handled this pretty well to have the least impact on people's lives. It was a problem that Biden couldn't sell this message, and the popular media doesn't spend much time on real issues like this.

It just gets as simple as things are more painful now than they were in 2019, everyone says it is Joe's fault and he is president now, so it must be true.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

None of this is wrong, but what does that have to do with the economy? Most of that is because of the incredible fractured and dysfunctional health care system, which seems to be problematic regardless of the money spent on it, either public or private.

Outside of a complete revamping of the system, which seems impossible under the current makeup of the congress, what could any president really do to fix this?

BTW, a couple of great pieces of legislature under Biden's term helped to control essential drug prices and required fair estimates from health care providers for medical care. Both of these should do a lot to drive healthcare prices down in the coming decade, but he won't be around long enough to take credit for it.

And in regards to drug prices specifically, when you have people testifying before Congress and they tell everyone they put a 27,000% upcharge on a drug, how do you even begin to solve that?

Because right now Cost Plug Drugs is likely doing more to help Americans pay less for drugs than anything else, and its likely because of their marketing, plus CPD or Cuban alerting people to 'hey, you are paying too much for this, here is a cheaper option.'

Which actually brings back the entire drug cost argument to 'can the market solve it' question, because CPD is almost proving that.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Itse

That's fair, but if "the economy doing well" doesn't lead to people feeling like things are going well for them, you can't really expect "the economy is doing well" to motivate people to vote.

Since Biden became president the price of food has gone up 50%, the price of gas has doubled, and interest rates are 4x what they were. You may forgive people, as they now work their second job to make ends meet, that the positive economic indicators of the American econony are not currently that important to them. That Biden has done a great job with the post covid economy is less important than the recent bias of their own financial situation with the previous guy.