Hillary lost due to a combination of 3 factors... the Comey investigation, her deplorables comment, and her lack of visits to the rust belt. Russia's interference played a role too.
Trump lost because he's a lying POS who completely bungled the covid response.
Yes and no. Every election is unique in it's own right and has it's own causes, but the trend is unmistakable.
Conservatives in Britain get tossed. Macron gets tossed in France, elections in South America swing the opposite from the incumbents, all over Europe you see a push to the right against long held centralist governments, Canada swings harder left against an incumbent. People all over the world are scared and unhappy and blame their governments.
I would take any polling for a candidate who hasn't even started their campaign with a large grain of salt. Especially when the other guys demographic skews MUCH older.
Biden was winning bigly before the debate debacle, things change
Biden was losing in almost every forecast before the debate...
Yes and no. Every election is unique in it's own right and has it's own causes, but the trend is unmistakable.
Conservatives in Britain get tossed. Macron gets tossed in France, elections in South America swing the opposite from the incumbents, all over Europe you see a push to the right against long held centralist governments, Canada swings harder left against an incumbent. People all over the world are scared and unhappy and blame their governments.
On the other hand the right wing PM held on to power in India, while losing some of his support. Brazil also went with a leftist former president in 2022. Mexico just elected a leftist establishment president.
While I don't disagree with the general point that there's a lot of unsatisfaction with the status quo in many countries, and that fascism and authoritarianism is obviously on the rise, it's good to be careful when making broad generalizations like this. Confirmation bias will get you very easily.
I think people are underestimating the appeal of safe establishment candidates in tumultuous times. I also think a lot of people are underestimating the rising mass appeal of leftist politics. Democrats especially I think would be wise to make a proper move to the left right now, from a popularity point of view.
(Of.course the US system is so dominated by money from rich people that a turn to the left would pose difficulties in election financing.)
Pretty sure fivethirtyeight had it as a tie, with Biden holding a tiny lead in odds (something like 51% to 49%).
That wasn't really based on polls though. Their model uses a mix of polls and fundamentals, but the weighting varies depending on how far out the election is. So at this point, it's almost entirely based on fundamentals (economic growth, unemployment, incumbency, etc.), which created a swing that pushed the numbers about 6 points in Biden's favor. Based only on polls, he has been behind for almost a year like in every other polling aggregate.
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I would take any polling for a candidate who hasn't even started their campaign with a large grain of salt. Especially when the other guys demographic skews MUCH older.
Biden was winning bigly before the debate debacle, things change
You keep saying this. What polling average or model are you using for this basis?
That wasn't really based on polls though. Their model uses a mix of polls and fundamentals, but the weighting varies depending on how far out the election is. So at this point, it's almost entirely based on fundamentals (economic growth, unemployment, incumbency, etc.), which created a swing that pushed the numbers about 6 points in Biden's favor. Based only on polls, he has been behind for almost a year like in every other polling aggregate.
Here is good commentary from an only slightly bitter Nate Silver of the problems with the 538 model.
So if people are using this as the source then they should be arguing that Bidens debate performance didn’t affect his chances. But no one is willing to do that.
Yeah trying to go with some revisionist history that Biden was actually "winning bigly" before the debate, and that the debate is what sunk his poll numbers, is odd. At best you could say he was in a tossup, but truly he was down going into the debate. There was lots of talk before the debate about him stepping aside, after the debate it was a fait accompli. Dropping Biden hopefully can get them back into pre-debate territory, but that still has them losing. Harris still has a decent sized hole to dig out of to win this.
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The election will be decided in six states, and in those states only 4-8 per cent of the electorate - mostly low-engagement swing voters - are in play. Most of them probably know nothing about Kamala Harris except that she’s the vice-president. I guess we’ll find out if that proves to be an advantage or a handicap.
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Yeah trying to go with some revisionist history that Biden was actually "winning bigly" before the debate, and that the debate is what sunk his poll numbers, is odd. At best you could say he was in a tossup, but truly he was down going into the debate. There was lots of talk before the debate about him stepping aside, after the debate it was a fait accompli. Dropping Biden hopefully can get them back into pre-debate territory, but that still has them losing. Harris still has a decent sized hole to dig out of to win this.
yeah, it didn't take the debate to determine that he was too old and losing it, unless you watched all media coverups
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The election will be decided in six states, and in those states only 4-8 per cent of the electorate - mostly low-engagement swing voters - are in play. Most of them probably know nothing about Kamala Harris except that she’s the vice-president. I guess we’ll find out if that proves to be an advantage or a handicap.
Which is the path that can save the Dems, if they take it?
John Shapiro as VP to lock up Pennsylvania. Harris campaign exclusively to women and black voters in those states. Campaign never leaves any of those states.
Everyone already knows what's happening everywhere else.
