Scott Wheeler's Top 100 drafted NHL prospects

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by butterfly

With respect to what I claimed, that's a fair criticism.

I was reading this earlier:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196323/

Stating that injuries are random absolutely requires evidence. Rolling a die, flipping a coin, drawing cards from an infinitely shuffled deck are activities that demonstratively yield perfect randomness, and profitable games can be developed from this.

A species of tree is endemic to Kosrae in Micronesia; should we assume randomness? The Flames sold fewer tickets this year than last year; should we assume randomness? A player injured their ACL and now has another lower extremity problem; should we assume randomness?

You can assume anything you like with an open mind, but to simply declare it as fact without (seemingly) the desire to pursue evidence is somewhat childish in my opinion.

If you're speaking scientifically, then yes, the default position is that things happen randomly. Just suggesting causality is not enough. Evidence is incumbent upon you to be provided. Larger theories like "injury consistency" need a ton of evidence to become established.

The reality is that you are using inductive reasoning to establish your claim, which is fine, but inductive reasoning only deals in probability, not certainty. As such, probability is only as good as the statistical certainty or directly observed cause and effect under controlled observing conditions. If you can't provide that, other than some specious anecdotal evidence, then your claim does not pass the null hypothesis test and is not accepted.

I'm not even saying you aren't correct, but nobody should accept your idea until there is significant data supporting it.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Again, it was you that was making claims. Calling injuries random is simply stating a baseline - they're random, unless someone can demonstrate something other than simple randomness.

There are particular types of sports injuries that are statistically likely to recur. To that extent, it's not random.

[TheScorpion]

Quinn Hughes is middling at best defensively but it doesn't friggin matter because Vancouver basically always has the puck when he's on the ice. Same deal with Bouchard and Fox. Best defence is a good offence. Give me that player any day.

[TOfan]

Not too sure if this warrants its own thread but Wheeler’s top 20 goalie is out this morning.

Wolf ranked 6 behind

Wallstadt
Askarov
Fowler
Knight
Levi

Wheeler says Wolf is his favourite to watch, but not necessarily who he think will be the best. He also says he considered ranking him higher, I suspect it’s a toss up between Wolf and Levi. Says all the things we know, dominant in jr. and the A. Reads the play exceptionally well. Excellent lateral movement. Only down fall is his size.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Quinn Hughes is middling at best defensively but it doesn't friggin matter because Vancouver basically always has the puck when he's on the ice. Same deal with Bouchard and Fox. Best defence is a good offence. Give me that player any day.

Totally agree on that. Neither player played the full year in their D+1 year. Hughes played in D+2 and Bouchard became a full time NHLer in his D+4 year. Somewhere in the range of D+2 and D+4 is when Parekh should become a full time NHLer. The OHL is a much better option this year for him than the NHL.

[Flamesfan05]

Yeah what do we need Parekh in the NHL for?

He is not going to learn much losing

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Yeah what do we need Parekh in the NHL for?

He is not going to learn much losing

I don’t think Parekh should play in the NHL either but saying he wouldn’t learn much by being on a losing team isn’t accurate in the least. To say he wouldn’t learn anything from pros like Backlund, Weegar, Colman, Andersson, Huberdeau, Kadri, and even other players, coaches, execs, etc. is nonsense. Thankfully, Parekh seems he is intelligent enough to understand this and has a want/desire to learn more. He’s an intelligent mature kid who’s likely to make the most of his surroundings/environment regardless.

I think it’s just as easy to say the opposite. What can he learn by playing another year in a league he just dominated? Hell, I’d say people learn more in their loses/failures than they do their successes.

Parekh should be learning regardless of the league he plays in or the success of that team.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by butterfly

There are 32 teams. 3 prospects on a top 100 list is average, whether or not they're your own draft picks.

At this time in two years, we should have one of the best prospect pipelines in the NHL.

Yeah the Flames have an average number of prospects on the last. Based on where they are ranked, probably slightly below average. Who drafted them is relevant if you want to look at the performance of the team's drafting and development.

We "should" have one of the better prospect bases in two years. Actually we better have if the team has any hopes of growing into a contender. Lots of pressure on Conroy and the scouts to get these right.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It is you that is using terms and phrases like 'injury consistency', 'durability is a skill', and 'more likely to be injured'. All of these require evidence for the claim. Stating that injuries are random does not require evidence - the opposite requires evidence.

You understand statistics and randomness, so I'm not sure why this is challenging for you.

Isn't it obvious that certain players tend to miss more games than others?

I'm not saying this can be predicted with certainty, especially at a younger age. And maybe that is your point.

But the odds of Cal Ripken or Mike Trout missing a game due to injury are not the same.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I don’t think Parekh should play in the NHL either but saying he wouldn’t learn much by being on a losing team isn’t accurate in the least. To say he wouldn’t learn anything from pros like Backlund, Weegar, Colman, Andersson, Huberdeau, Kadri, and even other players, coaches, execs, etc. is nonsense. Thankfully, Parekh seems he is intelligent enough to understand this and has a want/desire to learn more. He’s an intelligent mature kid who’s likely to make the most of his surroundings/environment regardless.

I think it’s just as easy to say the opposite. What can he learn by playing another year in a league he just dominated? Hell, I’d say people learn more in their loses/failures than they do their successes.

Parekh should be learning regardless of the league he plays in or the success of that team.

Constant losing damages your young players. Look at Anaheim for example. Don’t need to rush him into that environment

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Isn't it obvious that certain players tend to miss more games than others?

I'm not saying this can be predicted with certainty, especially at a younger age. And maybe that is your point.

But the odds of Cal Ripken or Mike Trout missing a game due to injury are not the same.

Yes, of course some players miss more games than others. Randomness does not preclude that at all.

But I didn't say all injuries are random. I said it is the baseline, and that claiming anything else - anything different than the null hypothesis - is what requires evidence.

As for Cal Ripken vs Trout - the odds of them getting injured in their next game are the same (unless/until one of them develops a set of pre-conditions that would make further injuries more likely). Ripken remaining injury-free is not proof that he is less injury-prone, he may simply have been more fortunate. And even if he was less injury-prone, that doesn't in any way refute the baseline statement that injuries - for the most part - are simply random.

Anyway, this is off-topic - and boring - so I am done with it.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Yeah the Flames have an average number of prospects on the last. Based on where they are ranked, probably slightly below average. Who drafted them is relevant if you want to look at the performance of the team's drafting and development.

We "should" have one of the better prospect bases in two years. Actually we better have if the team has any hopes of growing into a contender. Lots of pressure on Conroy and the scouts to get these right.

If you include the goalie list, they are slightly above average.
Which isn't surprising. The absence of high picks and picks overall (prior to this year) is the cause of this. However, the depth of the prospect pool has improved a lot in the last 12 months. I agree you ultimately need stars, and having more higher picks and more picks in the first 3 rounds gives you an increase chance of that.

Wheeler had the Flames 11th in organizatoinal rankings. Feels about right. Would want it to be top 8 in the next year or higher.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think it may partly be a skill - that's debatable. I'd say it is more or less genetic.

If you have weak knees, or a weak shoulder it could be genetic or it could be just the result of a hit that would have hurt anyone's knee.

But I'd say it's 90% luck.

Backlund was considered glass in his first few seasons and then just never got hurt again.

I'm going to give Honzek a little more real estate before writing him off.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

If you include the goalie list, they are slightly above average.
Which isn't surprising. The absence of high picks and picks overall (prior to this year) is the cause of this. However, the depth of the prospect pool has improved a lot in the last 12 months. I agree you ultimately need stars, and having more higher picks and more picks in the first 3 rounds gives you an increase chance of that.

Wheeler had the Flames 11th in organizatoinal rankings. Feels about right. Would want it to be top 8 in the next year or higher.

Agreed.

Also, the Flames' current strength is depth, not at the top end. Having 4 among the tops (including Wolf and the goalies), with Honzek as an honourable mention, puts the Flames average to a little above average. Which sounds about right.

But if there were a list of the next 100, you probably see Honzek and Morin near the top of it, with Basha, Gridin, Stromgren, Suniev, Grushnikov, Battaglia, Mews and Misa likely all getting consideration.

Not many teams can compare favourably against the Flames' depth. What we need over the next two drafts is to add at the top. And I agree - a move to about 7th or 8th next year, and into the top 5 after the next.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Constant losing damages your young players. Look at Anaheim for example. Don’t need to rush him into that environment

That’s one example. There are plenty the opposite direction too. Was Nathan MacKinnon ‘damaged’?

A little early to be saying Mason MacTavish is damaged, I’d say. Is Zellweger damaged? Mintykov? Little premature to be making these claims.

If what you’re saying is true what hope is there for any rebuilding team?

Should Wolf play another year in the AHL so the Flames don’t damage him? Coronato?

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Not too sure if this warrants its own thread but Wheeler’s top 20 goalie is out this morning.

Wolf ranked 6 behind

Wallstadt
Askarov
Fowler
Knight
Levi

Wheeler says Wolf is his favourite to watch, but not necessarily who he think will be the best. He also says he considered ranking him higher, I suspect it’s a toss up between Wolf and Levi. Says all the things we know, dominant in jr. and the A. Reads the play exceptionally well. Excellent lateral movement. Only down fall is his size.

Fowler over Knight, Levi, and Wolf is a take. Especially considering two of those guys also played in NCAA and were much better than him. Knight even played for the same team.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Not too sure if this warrants its own thread but Wheeler’s top 20 goalie is out this morning.

Wolf ranked 6 behind

Wallstadt
Askarov
Fowler
Knight
Levi

Wheeler says Wolf is his favourite to watch, but not necessarily who he think will be the best. He also says he considered ranking him higher, I suspect it’s a toss up between Wolf and Levi. Says all the things we know, dominant in jr. and the A. Reads the play exceptionally well. Excellent lateral movement. Only down fall is his size.

Wolf continuing to be slept on

[SeanCharles]

Wolf should be 3 given his pedigree and the hurdles Knight has had to overcome lately, as he is the one I would have considered ahead of him prior to it all.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Not too sure if this warrants its own thread but Wheeler’s top 20 goalie is out this morning.

Wolf ranked 6 behind

Wallstadt
Askarov
Fowler
Knight
Levi

Wheeler says Wolf is his favourite to watch, but not necessarily who he think will be the best. He also says he considered ranking him higher, I suspect it’s a toss up between Wolf and Levi. Says all the things we know, dominant in jr. and the A. Reads the play exceptionally well. Excellent lateral movement. Only down fall is his size.

Man that sucks that Wallstedt fell to the Oilers, man they are the luckiest... ohhh thats right, they passed on him for borgalt. Hahaha!!!

[activeStick]

Can anyone summarize the list of players from all Canadian teams that made the cut, with their ranking, in the top 100?