Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by looooob

I like Arvidsson more than Skinner I think, agree they are passable top 6 options, the concern- only time will tell if its overblown- is they are both getting older- big drop off year over year for Skinner and Arvidsson was 1.5 2 years ago and then only played 18 games last year

There is definitely potential for it to backfire. As you mention, older players are more likely to fall off a cliff suddenly.

Arvidsson seems to miss around 20 games per season, and Skinner might be a dud come playoffs.

At the end of the day, all a guy can really say is that the Oilers have appeared to have improved their depth this offseason, which looked like a pretty impossible feat given the cap space they walked into free agency with.

[Newton]

They aren’t quite out of the cap woods they are still over the cap as
Of today …shoes still need to drop depth wise

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

There is definitely potential for it to backfire. As you mention, older players are more likely to fall off a cliff suddenly.

Arvidsson seems to miss around 20 games per season, and Skinner might be a dud come playoffs.

At the end of the day, all a guy can really say is that the Oilers have appeared to have improved their depth this offseason, which looked like a pretty impossible feat given the cap space they walked into free agency with.

Have they?

Out: Foegele, McLeod, Desharnais

In: Arvidsson, Skinner, Brown

They're older, smaller, and they moved out defensively responsible guys for more offence.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Have they?

Out: Foegele, McLeod, Desharnais

In: Arvidsson, Skinner, Brown

They're older, smaller, and they moved out defensively responsible guys for more offence.

Those guys weren’t old enough so they had to be replaced!

28, 24, and 28 out for 31, 32, and 30.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Have they?

Out: Foegele, McLeod, Desharnais

In: Arvidsson, Skinner, Brown

They're older, smaller, and they moved out defensively responsible guys for more offence.

McLeod is pretty good defensively. He seems to lack the jam to compete in the playoffs though. He routinely gets outscored 5v5 as he doesn't really generate any offence at all when the checking gets tighter. He's got size, but doesn't use it at all.

Foegele isn't good defensively. He's not trusted by coaches. He's been a healthy scratch in 2 of the last 3 playoff runs. Disappears for long stretches of games at a time. He doesn't think the game well or utilize his teammates effectively IMO.

Desharnais is a replacement level player.

Despite having youth and size, Mcleod and Foegele are less effective players than Arvidsson and Skinner going off results. Maybe that changes this season. I wouldn't bet on it though.

The only one that hurts a bit to lose for the Oilers is McLeod, but he lost his job to Henrique who is a much more effective two way player. The guy was -7 over the last 3 years playing for Anaheim. They got outscored by around 250 goals over that span.

So now the Oilers can use their limited picks and prospects to find a 4th line center and 6/7th D man at the deadline rather than looking for a top six winger.

Depth looks better on paper to me.

[Eric Vail]

sweat pants and good shoes

[GioforPM]

Relying on 34 year old Henrique to pick up McLeod’s defensive slack seems a bit optimistic to me. And’s also a bit injury prone - missed 20 games per year in his last two full seasons in Anaheim.

[sevenarms]

Originally Posted by looooob

Kulak for no player and Holloway and Broberg for 2.2 Million combined (pushing the RFA payday down the road- strategy worked for Nurse and should for Bouchard) and they can go with 22 players and about 100K breathing room

Broberg and Holloway will be squeezed to league minimum contracts. Neither have arbitration rights and the Oilers will wait them out. Just like Mcleod a couple of years back.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

McLeod is pretty good defensively. He seems to lack the jam to compete in the playoffs though. He routinely gets outscored 5v5 as he doesn't really generate any offence at all when the checking gets tighter. He's got size, but doesn't use it at all.

Foegele isn't good defensively. He's not trusted by coaches. He's been a healthy scratch in 2 of the last 3 playoff runs. Disappears for long stretches of games at a time. He doesn't think the game well or utilize his teammates effectively IMO.

Desharnais is a replacement level player.

Despite having youth and size, Mcleod and Foegele are less effective players than Arvidsson and Skinner going off results. Maybe that changes this season. I wouldn't bet on it though.

The only one that hurts a bit to lose for the Oilers is McLeod, but he lost his job to Henrique who is a much more effective two way player. The guy was -7 over the last 3 years playing for Anaheim. They got outscored by around 250 goals over that span.

So now the Oilers can use their limited picks and prospects to find a 4th line center and 6/7th D man at the deadline rather than looking for a top six winger.

Depth looks better on paper to me.

Arvidsson was a great pickup.

Skinner does nothing to help their already pourous defensive puck management. He's gotta outscore his very weak defensive play, much like Kane.

Brown is the single worst Dman that played in the NHL last year by almost every metric. He's a huge downgrade on a very bad Deharnais.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by sevenarms

Broberg and Holloway will be squeezed to league minimum contracts. Neither have arbitration rights and the Oilers will wait them out. Just like Mcleod a couple of years back.

I think they are going to open up a can of worms if they try to squeeze them to accept a league min contract.

A team can sign them for 1.5M and not have to compensate the Oilers. Why would you sign for half of that. I think almost any team would be happy to help the player and agent out and sign that offer sheet and force the Oilers hand. I think either would be worth a 3rd pick with an AAV around 2M.

[RedHot25]

I think both forward pick ups are great for the Oilers.

My challenge though is the Skinner one. Nothing on him, I think he scores lots, sure. But I don't think that's the issue.

I.e. I think you rather put that $3 million into your defense rather than into another scoring forward. But just my two cents anyway.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I think they are going to open up a can of worms if they try to squeeze them to accept a league min contract.

A team can sign them for 1.5M and not have to compensate the Oilers. Why would you sign for half of that. I think almost any team would be happy to help the player and agent out and sign that offer sheet and force the Oilers hand. I think either would be worth a 3rd pick with an AAV around 2M.

Not just that, There's no way that Holloway is going to agree to league minimum when he got paid 925 last year, nor Boingboing.


And it would bode really badly for future negotiations for both players in the future if the Oilers play hard ball.


I will expect that they're both going to be looking in the 1.5 range.



I mean after the hype up for both players, and that they're really outside of Savoie the only somewhat decent young players that the Oilers have, they can't play hardball.


the only way around it then would be to use one of them as inducement to move Kane's cap hit.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

I think both forward pick ups are great for the Oilers.

My challenge though is the Skinner one. Nothing on him, I think he scores lots, sure. But I don't think that's the issue.

I.e. I think you rather put that $3 million into your defense rather than into another scoring forward. But just my two cents anyway.

The issue with the Oilers Defence isn't so much that it sucks. It's more that they don't have a next man up.

Their team was really lucky with injuries last year. It's not uncommon to have two D men out for extended periods of time.

[sevenarms]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Not just that, There's no way that Holloway is going to agree to league minimum when he got paid 925 last year, nor Boingboing.


And it would bode really badly for future negotiations for both players in the future if the Oilers play hard ball.


I will expect that they're both going to be looking in the 1.5 range.



I mean after the hype up for both players, and that they're really outside of Savoie the only somewhat decent young players that the Oilers have, they can't play hardball.


the only way around it then would be to use one of them as inducement to move Kane's cap hit.

I agree that the offer sheets should be a threat, but they're not. When has a player ever been signed to the minimum compensation offer sheet?

The league minimum is too extreme but I see both signing for sub-$900k. Their qualifying offers are $875k.

Going back to the Ryan Mcleod comparison, Mcleod was a full time nhler when they strong-armed him into accepting less than his qualifying offer. Both Holloway and Broberg spent significant time in the minors last year.

Mcleod then had arbitration rights, elected arbitration, and cashed in with a big pay bump before his hearing. Which then priced him out of the Oilers plans this year.

Do we really think think that a management team with this track record is above playing hardball on a couple of rookies?

They will both be wanting $1.5m and hoping for an offer sheet. When that doesn't come, they will limp in right before training camp with 1 year deals at <$900k.

[metroneck]

Originally Posted by sevenarms

The league minimum is too extreme but I see both signing for sub-$900k. Their qualifying offers are $875k.

They will both be wanting $1.5m and hoping for an offer sheet. When that doesn't come, they will limp in right before training camp with 1 year deals at <$900k.

Even though offer sheets are rare, I’d imagine their Agents quietly make phone calls to other teams if they are only getting sub $1m offers.

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Agents can shop, but team can not contact them.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Not just that, There's no way that Holloway is going to agree to league minimum when he got paid 925 last year, nor Boingboing.


And it would bode really badly for future negotiations for both players in the future if the Oilers play hard ball.


I will expect that they're both going to be looking in the 1.5 range.



I mean after the hype up for both players, and that they're really outside of Savoie the only somewhat decent young players that the Oilers have, they can't play hardball.


the only way around it then would be to use one of them as inducement to move Kane's cap hit.

It also screws them on the next contract because they would on a lower amount vs being qualified closer to 2M. There is no incentive for them to leave a million in salary because McDavid says Let's go with vigor.

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by metroneck

Even though offer sheets are rare, I’d imagine their Agents quietly make phone calls to other teams if they are only getting sub $1m offers.

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Agents can shop, but team can not contact them.

I’m still in the offer sheet Broberg camp. Holloway is overrated and we already have better young guys/prospects but Broberg is already a bottom pair defenseman & projects to be top 4, maybe top pair. The compensation for a contract under $4.58 million is only a 2nd round pick. Offer 4 million x 7 years and either watch the Oilers cry about losing him or cry because they matched and are in further cap hell.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

Offer 4 million x 7 years

I believe they changed the compensation rules so you can't do that. If you offer more than five years, the total contract value is divided by 5 to determine the compensation. So that amount would push the offer sheet into 1st + 3rd territory, and the Flames don't have those picks to offer.

(Besides, next year's 1st is a silly price to offer for almost any RFA.)

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

I believe they changed the compensation rules so you can't do that. If you offer more than five years, the total contract value is divided by 5 to determine the compensation. So that amount would push the offer sheet into 1st + 3rd territory, and the Flames don't have those picks to offer.

(Besides, next year's 1st is a silly price to offer for almost any RFA.)

Wow, did not know that. Okay so let’s do 4M x 5y.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by oil stain

there is definitely potential for it to backfire. As you mention, older players are more likely to fall off a cliff suddenly.

Arvidsson seems to miss around 20 games per season, and skinner might be a dud come playoffs.

At the end of the day, all a guy can really say is that the oilers have appeared to have improved their depth this offseason, which looked like a pretty impossible feat given the cap space they walked into free agency with. Edmonton is no good, now and forever. Yep...E=NG.

fyp.