2025 NHL Draft Thread

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Bonded

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/...mance.2968462/

Now this just a guy on a message board but lends some credence that the Flames are good at drafting.

That's good analysis. He lets the data do the talking, instead of bashing them to fit a predetermined outcome.

From the few results he posted, it's fairly clear that Treliving & staff did well with the picks they actually used. They just didn't have nearly enough of them.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's good analysis. He lets the data do the talking, instead of bashing them to fit a predetermined outcome.

From the few results he posted, it's fairly clear that Treliving & staff did well with the picks they actually used. They just didn't have nearly enough of them.

Yeah, I didn't pick through too see if there were major data issues or biases etc but the methodology seems pretty fair on the surface.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's good analysis. He lets the data do the talking, instead of bashing them to fit a predetermined outcome.

From the few results he posted, it's fairly clear that Treliving & staff did well with the picks they actually used. They just didn't have nearly enough of them.

The problem in the Treliving era was never the scouts or missing on picks. It was the absolute unprecedented level of trading picks compared to almost any team in recent NHL history. I have complete faith in the Flames hitting on picks if they get enough of them.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Bonded

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/...mance.2968462/

Now this just a guy on a message board but lends some credence that the Flames are good at drafting.

Great find. Thanks for sharing.

I wonder if including Vegas and Seattle skew any of the analysis because they haven't had 7 years of picks work through the system.

I'm shocked that Dallas shows up poorly as many think they are good at drafting. Or is that bias because they hit one draft really well?

Agree with the other posters that Tre traded way too many picks.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The problem in the Treliving era was never the scouts or missing on picks. It was the absolute unprecedented level of trading picks compared to almost any team in recent NHL history.

Tanner Jeannot says hi, and asks how those five draft picks are coming along.

Seriously, though, it's not unprecedented for a contending team to trade a lot of picks away to put itself over the top. Vegas, Florida, and Tampa have all done it recently and it worked for them. Edmonton and Toronto did it – and it didn't work. Pittsburgh and San Jose wasted all kinds of assets trying to stay in contention after their windows had closed, and it was sad to see.

Treliving's big fault was trading picks away too soon, to try to make his team a contender. It worked, sort of, but then he didn't have enough assets left to go the rest of the distance. (Blowing a stack of picks on Hamonic didn't help either.)

The winner of the Golden Raspberry for premature buying has to go to Jarmo Kekalainen for the '18-19 Blue Jackets. In the course of that season (starting with the '18 draft) he traded away two 2nds, two 5ths, a 4th, a 7th, two conditional 1sts, and a conditional 6th. The only picks he got back were a 6th, a 7th, and a conditional 7th.

For this haul (plus players and prospects), he got Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid, all of whom walked at the end of the season, plus spare parts. And his team won a grand total of one playoff round.

[cral12]

Well, Upside's Chief Rankings Officer, E-Mac, wasting no time this offseason.

We've just got our way too early Top 96 posted!

Quick link:
http://bit.ly/2025nhldraftguide

(I'll add this to original post as well)

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Tanner Jeannot says hi, and asks how those five draft picks are coming along.

Seriously, though, it's not unprecedented for a contending team to trade a lot of picks away to put itself over the top. Vegas, Florida, and Tampa have all done it recently and it worked for them. Edmonton and Toronto did it – and it didn't work. Pittsburgh and San Jose wasted all kinds of assets trying to stay in contention after their windows had closed, and it was sad to see.

Treliving's big fault was trading picks away too soon, to try to make his team a contender. It worked, sort of, but then he didn't have enough assets left to go the rest of the distance. (Blowing a stack of picks on Hamonic didn't help either.)

The winner of the Golden Raspberry for premature buying has to go to Jarmo Kekalainen for the '18-19 Blue Jackets. In the course of that season (starting with the '18 draft) he traded away two 2nds, two 5ths, a 4th, a 7th, two conditional 1sts, and a conditional 6th. The only picks he got back were a 6th, a 7th, and a conditional 7th.

For this haul (plus players and prospects), he got Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid, all of whom walked at the end of the season, plus spare parts. And his team won a grand total of one playoff round.

The thing is that all those team you listed are contenders minus the Blue Jackets.

The Flames never made the playoffs in consecutive seasons under Treliving. Well I guess the bubble, but it was an inconsistent team.

You build the contender through the draft and finish the team off through some trades or a free agent signing.

He started trading picks right away and didn’t stop. His first trade was sending a 3rd for Bollig for no reason. I know you mentioned that was a fault of his trading picks too soon.

Outside of 18/19 and 21/22 the team was probably never on a position to trade a first or gut a draft class.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Great find. Thanks for sharing.

I wonder if including Vegas and Seattle skew any of the analysis because they haven't had 7 years of picks work through the system.

I'm shocked that Dallas shows up poorly as many think they are good at drafting. Or is that bias because they hit one draft really well?

Agree with the other posters that Tre traded way too many picks.

Yeah, that one is odd. My quick take is that it doesn’t account quality of picks versus draft position. Dallas has a lot steals relative to draft position.

[dissentowner]

The million dollar question is if we win the lottery is how risky is drafting James Hagens as a proud NY kid?

[Paulie Walnuts]

Don’t think taking Hagens is risky at all. He’s going #1 overall and likely signs right away or a year later.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Don’t think taking Hagens is risky at all. He’s going #1 overall and likely signs right away or a year later.

Or he forces his way to a US market. Still, a hell of a trade chip.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I’m sure they will have good intel on his intentions. He’s not forcing his way to a US market. It just doesn’t happen with #1 overall picks.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Or he forces his way to a US market. Still, a hell of a trade chip.

Step one is don’t mismanage the cap and have to bridge him lol

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

The thing is that all those team you listed are contenders minus the Blue Jackets.

Yes, I pointed that out.

Though I question whether the Leafs were ever contenders for anything. They're four expensive forwards looking for a team.

Outside of 18/19 and 21/22 the team was probably never on a position to trade a first or gut a draft class.

Agreed.

Still, Kekalainen says to Treliving, ‘Hold my beer.’

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The million dollar question is if we win the lottery is how risky is drafting James Hagens as a proud NY kid?

Very risky. He and Conroy will disappear, and they'll show up three months later with the Rangers. You see, all New Yorkers are exactly alike.

[jg13]

If he is ready to immediately play in the NHL I personally don't see much risk. If he is 2+ years away it's a completely different story.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by jg13

If he is ready to immediately play in the NHL I personally don't see much risk. If he is 2+ years away it's a completely different story.

Yeah, if he is ready to go pro sooner rather than later, it's doubtful that he would stay in college longer and miss out on more peak earning years.

The trick would be keep him and buy UFA years from him. I have faith that Conroy is smart enough to sort that stuff out early and make the appropriate moves if there was a risk of him walking at 25 or 26 years old.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by jg13

If he is ready to immediately play in the NHL I personally don't see much risk. If he is 2+ years away it's a completely different story.

And even this is basically describing Matthew Coronato, who, as a New Yorker, played two years at Harvard then signed.

[devo22]

the risk is zero. A top talent like Hagens will want to play in the NHL at 18, so I doubt it would be any issue. And if it was, you're still getting one heck of a trade chip that you can flip for a ransom.

Honestly, I'm super tired of the narrative. Just because Adam Fox was a ######bag, you shouldn't shy away from drafting Americans altogether.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by devo22

the risk is zero. A top talent like Hagens will want to play in the NHL at 18, so I doubt it would be any issue. And if it was, you're still getting one heck of a trade chip that you can flip for a ransom.

Honestly, I'm super tired of the narrative. Just because Adam Fox was a ######bag, you shouldn't shy away from drafting Americans altogether.

Adam Fox was a different animal because he needed a couple more years of seasoning so by the time he was ready to turn pro he already had a couple post draft years under his belt.

Hagens as 1st overall I wouldn't be worried at all. He'd probably sign right after the draft and then be at training camp in the fall.