I don't know if I'd call it a collapse. They went from 18.7 to 33.2% of the popular vote between elections. It was more a cade of the center and left voters strategically teaming up to keep the right out of power. France's voting system of multiple rounds of voting allows for just that.
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Crazy Labour won a huge majority with only 32% of the vote. Don’t you normally need like 40% for a majority with FPTP.
TIL the Brits rejected Automatic Transferable Voting in a 2011 referendum. So that’s two referendums in the 2010s where they picked the worst of the two options.
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Crazy Labour won a huge majority with only 32% of the vote. Don’t you normally need like 40% for a majority with FPTP.
TIL the Brits rejected Automatic Transferable Voting in a 2011 referendum. So that’s two referendums in the 2010s where they picked the worst of the two options.
Similar to what happened in France where you had tactical voting to keep the conservatives out. In close races people voting left all voted one way. Meanwhile the right vote was split between conservatives and the "Reform UK". Reform voters didn't largely vote tactically, as populist voters aren't very tactical.
I don't know if I'd call it a collapse. They went from 18.7 to 33.2% of the popular vote between elections.
~37% actually (assuming you're talking about the 2nd round), basically doubling their total from last election.
Though the strategic voting likely did benefit the RN's raw vote totals, even if it hurt their seat count. There were a bunch of constituencies where the Ensemble or the NFP pulled their candidate for the 2nd round of voting in order to prevent vote splitting. So in situations where the Ensemble candidate backed out, only some of the support would have gone to the left wing NFP, while some would have gone to the RN. With a full slate of candidates, RN's 2nd round support would have likely been lower.
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~37% actually (assuming you're talking about the 2nd round), basically doubling their total from last election.
Though the strategic voting likely did benefit the RN's raw vote totals, even if it hurt their seat count. There were a bunch of constituencies where the Ensemble or the NFP pulled their candidate for the 2nd round of voting in order to prevent vote splitting. So in situations where the Ensemble candidate backed out, only some of the support would have gone to the left wing NFP, while some would have gone to the RN. With a full slate of candidates, RN's 2nd round support would have likely been lower.
Any far right party in France is, rightfully, also going to have a tough time. Although France doesn't keep statistics on ethnicity, a significant portion of the population are visible minorities. If you're losing 20-30% of the vote from the get go, that's a very uphill battle to win. You can't run on a platform of intolerance towards a that significant a part of your voting base and expect to win. Their only hope is to split the vote amongst the left and center, but as this election showed that'll only get you so far.
Any far right party in France is, rightfully, also going to have a tough time. Although France doesn't keep statistics on ethnicity, a significant portion of the population are visible minorities. If you're losing 20-30% of the vote from the get go, that's a very uphill battle to win. You can't run on a platform of intolerance towards a that significant a part of your voting base and expect to win. Their only hope is to split the vote amongst the left and center, but as this election showed that'll only get you so far.
Only 10 per cent of France’s population is foreign-born.
There’s probably another 5-10 per cent who are second-generation non-French ethnicity. When you factor in that many of those are European (Portugal, Italy, and Spain are all in the top 7 in immigrant source countries), and presumably not in the crosshairs of the far-right, you’re probably looking at well under 15 per cent non-European background.
That’s a handicap to any electoral strategy. But not comparable to a country like Canada or Australia, where a nativist political movement is a non-starter electorally.
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Last edited by CliffFletcher; 07-07-2024 at 10:33 PM.
There’s probably another 5-10 per cent who are second-generation non-French ethnicity. When you factor in that many of those are European (Portugal, Italy, and Spain are all in the top 7 in immigrant source countries), and presumably not in the crosshairs of the far-right, you’re probably looking at well under 15 per cent non-European background.
That’s a handicap to any electoral strategy. But not comparable to a country like Canada or Australia, where a nativist political movement is a non-starter electorally.
Thanks for the Wikpidia review - what would we do with out you?
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I don't know if I'd call it a collapse. They went from 18.7 to 33.2% of the popular vote between elections. It was more a cade of the center and left voters strategically teaming up to keep the right out of power. France's voting system of multiple rounds of voting allows for just that.
you're right, it's not a collapse. But after seeing pretty much all of Europe drift to the right in recent elections, I take those results from the UK and France as a win. Yes, they come with certain asterisks, but at this point, I'll take what I can get.
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Glad we’re moving from the “brigade” to “every account I don’t like is secretly PepsiFree.”
That's probably more fun for you, one would think. Wouldn't want to share the spotlight. You even got credit for someone else's acerbic put-down this time!
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you're right, it's not a collapse. But after seeing pretty much all of Europe drift to the right in recent elections, I take those results from the UK and France as a win. Yes, they come with certain asterisks, but at this point, I'll take what I can get.
Yeah, I'm essentially at the same point.
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That's probably more fun for you, one would think. Wouldn't want to share the spotlight. You even got credit for someone else's acerbic put-down this time!
Significantly more fun. At this point I don’t even have to be involved in a conversation for “the people I hate” to feel like I’m harassing them.
I couldn’t have done a better job of ruining their psyche if I tried.
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“Farage’s often-stated ambition is for Reform UK to eventually replace the mighty British Conservative Party,” wrote the CBC’s London reporter, Chris Brown. “He said his blueprint for doing so is modelled after what Manning did in Canada.”
In Mr. Farage’s words: “I set the Brexit Party up for a reason, to complete the Brexit process, and we were very successful. … I rebranded it Reform UK, thinking very much of our Canadian cousins. In the end they sort of ‘reverse took over’ the old Conservative Party. They are the model. That’s the plan.”
I imagine we'll see the UK Conservatives move the right to recapture some of the vote, similar what we've seen in Canada in the '00s and recently under Poilievre. Particularly since this edition of the Labour party is pretty indistinguishable from the Conservatives in terms of policy, so they'll need to distinguish themselves somehow.
Yeah, this is a near constant pattern in conservative politics in western democracies. In addition to those two federal examples, it's the story of the UCP as well... right wing fractures, establishment conservatives can't rule, the far-right only care about about ideology and refuse to compromise, the establishment conservatives care only about ruling, and so they compromise or compete by moving further to the right. Same in the US in recent years, with the tea party movement and then MAGA crowd. And it all hinges on voters caring more about team colours than party ideology.
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Yeah, this is a near constant pattern in conservative politics in western democracies. In addition to those two federal examples, it's the story of the UCP as well... right wing fractures, establishment conservatives can't rule, the far-right only care about about ideology and refuse to compromise, the establishment conservatives care only about ruling, and so they compromise or compete by moving further to the right. Same in the US in recent years, with the tea party movement and then MAGA crowd. And it all hinges on voters caring more about team colours than party ideology.
But they aren’t the same voters. This shift is mostly about the political realignment where the working class have abandoned the left and are moving to parties of the right while establishment professionals are shifting to the centre-left.
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