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Old 07-02-2024, 09:35 PM   #15141
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Its still this fixation Trump is so evil anyone who would vote for him is evil too. Its entitled and arrogant and why the Dems are screwed.
It's not entitled or arrogant at all. It's entirely rational to be extremely disappointed in (even to the point of being very upset at) Trump supporters for their decision to keep voting for him.

While the term "evil" is not correct for describing Trump supporters, it would be accurate to describe them as dangerously ignorant, many of them deliberately so. They air their grievances, yet vote for the guy who is constantly making the very problems they complain about much worse.

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Listen to the All In podcast with Trump. Its recent. Like genuinely listen to it. I still think Trump is awful choice and don’t support him, but he speaks to the problems people face in simple terms. It actually makes sense why people support him that aren’t bad people. Its the Dems that are shooting themselves all over again
That podcast would, if anything, only prove that Trump is a wolf in sheep's clothing, and a demagogue of the highest order. At some point is really is the responsibility of his supporters to realize that they're being duped, and stop supporting him.

And while these people are undoubtedly the victims of rampant misinformation and lies, the correct information is out there and very easily accessible, and they deliberately choose to not listen to it, or find all kinds of bogus excuses to dismiss it. So for that reason, my patience with them has waned over time.
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Old 07-02-2024, 10:03 PM   #15142
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There’s a difference between him ordering something illegal and changing the rules. A president does not have the power to make laws, even illegally. I don’t think this ruling gives him new powers per se, just allows him to use the powers he has for ill with no consequences.

For example he could order the military to do something since he is commander in chief, but he can’t order a state AG to fudge the numbers because they don’t report to him. (Whether the military would obey a normally illegal order is a different question)
The order would also remain illegal. This ruling doesn’t make everything the president does legal it makes him immune to criminal prosecution for the illegal act. Though really with the Pardon power and the likely constitutionality of the self pardon this ruling doesn’t make a real difference.

The US and all democracies are only backed by social norms. Without those norms there are no safeguards.
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Old 07-02-2024, 11:53 PM   #15143
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Overall I want to engage with you so that you can talk out some of your points. I'm not trying to frustrate you or "win". I don't want your points dismissed. Let's go
You weren't the one frustrating me; it was more a frustration with seeing the world around me circling the drain, and no one seeming to care enough to even so much as speak out in a vehement way. Insert "this is fine" meme here.

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Unfortunately his rise is more a comment on how "money" can open doors and keep others from shutting in on you.
All the more reason why society needs to tackle wealth inequality in a bold, unapologetic way.

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Unfortunately fear sells, and it has been a tool used for sales for a long time. He uses it, like others do, to sell his brand. High inflation and reduced disposable income does hit his base the hardest.
True, which is why it's so infuriating to see the people hurt most by Trump's policies vote for him and support him with religious fervor.

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He taps into their fears and that want to blame the hand your dealt rather than choices you've made.
Not entirely sure what you mean by this comment, but here's a video I'd recommend.

Spoiler!


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The US has a free press
Technically true, but the relevance and influence of the main stream media is greatly diminished from what it was even 10 years ago, and even more so compared to 20 years ago. This is due to a combination of economic factors, an overall plummet in trust in media, and the rapid emergence of online echo chambers where people simply hear what they want to hear, and reject anything they don't want to hear. So the days of thinking that a free press can be relied upon as both informer of the people and an effective check against misinformation and hate, are numbered; arguably, they are already a thing of the past.

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a history of free protest
Yes but tradition can fade out pretty quickly. Once people find out that you can be beaten, jailed, and have a criminal record for protesting, you'll see a huge chilling effect nation wide. And before you say that's impossible, the constitution guarantees the right to protest! I implore you to look at the recent immunity case, overturning of Roe, etc, and tell me what will stop this supreme court from doing whatever they hell they want in terms of stripping away constitutional rights.

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and as stated before without military / para military suppression or a shrug that is enough in an extreme scenario.
Speaking of traditions, the military has a very strong, embedded tradition of serving the orders of the president. Push come to shove, they'll err on the side of loyalty to the president.

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Every system relies on people at some point.
After 9 years (actually, a lot more than that if we're being honest) of nonstop propaganda, lies, and demagoguing, Trump has more than enough people ultra-loyal to him to get done what he wants to get done. Part of Project 2025 is systematic recruitment of MAGA loyalists, where people apply to be on a list for a government job in the next republican administration, and are vetted based on ideology.

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but the reality is the blue team and red team are close on a lot of things
On the most important things, they aren't close at all.

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and America is one of the world's most prosperous nations with high social mobility.
Social mobility is not a substitute for a sufficient health care system, reasonable minimum wage, strong environmental protections, and other things that would make America a more decent, compassionate country.

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Even dictators hide their money there because of the strength, openness and stability of America's institutions. Trump, project 2025, Rush Limbaugh, etc aren't going to change that...they may say it...but they are selling a bit, they love most of the institutions as much as anyone.
Well they've been openly attacking the democratic institutions within the country, and undermining faith in elections. They only like America's institutions insofar that the institutions serve their interests. They look to weaken and undermine institutions that don't serve their interests, such as the IRS for example.

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How to win on the Russian gameboard is very different than how to win on an American gameboard.
True but in my opinion there's nothing holding Trump back from running roughshod over his political opposition, and putting and end to media that tries to hold him to account. Once he guts federal agencies and fills them with loyalists, it's game over for America and probably the world.

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In America Trump would need the FBI, CIA,
Which is exactly why Project 2025 is so dangerous. It seeks to make these and other agencies operate in complete fealty to Trump.

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the rest of the security services, 5 branches of the military, plus all the cops on his side to name a few to carry out assassinations.
None of those are needed for a secret covert operation to take someone out. If they can make it look like a suicide, case closed.

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In his last presidency, he didn't really have the respect of those services. They'd be more likely to take him out than serve him in my opinion.
After things like siding with Putin in Helsinki, arm twisting Zelenskyy for a political favor, January 6, the fake elector scheme, and the selling of classified documents to foreign billionaires, I'd argue that if Trump is ever going to be taken out by them, it would have already happened.

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What can I say, he's playing the hits for his base. They do have freedom of speech, and I guess he's exercising that right.
It can't just be flippantly shrugged off like that. It's deeply fascistic rhetoric; it's the normalization of dehumanization, followed by persecution, of political opponents, and it's how democracies are toppled. Trump is following Hitler's playbook to a tee.

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Agree...but this is where case law takes over. Also people at these businesses don't just start dumping oil on the ground because they can. Typically businesses just want a stable framework to work in, then they adjust. Having a regulator instead of a legislator holding those reigns can make major projects difficult.
Corporations rampantly pollute to maximize profits because they are legally required to, because of their fiduciary duty. So the only check on this behavior is strong, expert-guided regulation. At the end of the day, corporations always want to create conditions where they can make greater profits, so it does tend to be difficult to trust them when they try to justify taking powers away from regulators.

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Also ALL publications left, right, center use fear to sell.
Alerting someone about a real danger is not the same thing as fear mongering. Alerting people of the incalculable harm that Trump (and the sychophants he will hire in the WH and federal agencies) will cause to the world is a legitimate warning, it is not some "sell".

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Bipartisan support is more popular than you are led to believe. The red team and blue team in Congress and the Senate do work together quite a bit.

E.g.:
  • In 2023, 467 of 487 bills passed with at least one Republican ‘yes’ vote (95.89%)
  • In 2022, 291 of 308 bills passed with at least one Republican ‘yes’ vote. (94.48%)
  • In 2021, 310 of 334 bills passed with at least one Republican ‘yes’ vote (92.81%)
  • In the 2019-20 biennium, 812 of 854 bills passed with at least one Republican ‘yes’ vote (95.08%)
One person voting across the aisle does not imply bipartisanship. Far from it. It is typical that a very small number of politicians break rank from their party on most things, especially legislation that is relatively inconsequential from an ideological standpoint. But sometimes it can also happen in more significant ways, such as Romney, Cheney, Kinzinger breaking away from the MAGA cult, while Manchin and Sinema sided with their corporate donors instead of Biden on some important legislation. But ultimately, you don't see a big chunk of one party voting along with the other party to get something passed, unless it's something nonpartisan in nature (such as the infrastructure bill).

When at least 10% of each party votes together on something, only then in my opinion can you begin to make a case that it's a bipartisan action.

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This is annoying, but the Supreme Court's power is a pendulum, if they go too much against their own people the legislative branch will take more of a lead.
With Trump as president and a MAGA supreme court, what can congress do (even if Democrats hold both house and senate)?

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I want you to know that you are heard
Being heard is great. People heeding the warning is better. People talking to their American friends and family and helping them get registered to vote... is best.

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The 13 keys model helps you wade through a lot of the day to day headlines and think about what will actually matter on election day: https://www.socialstudies.org/system...se-8801006.pdf
Allan Lichtman's keys leave out important factors such as online propaganda coming from countries such as Russia and China, and the rising threat of AI that can create fake but very convincing images and videos. It also doesn't take into account that the challenger is himself a former president, the incumbent is in his 80s and sometimes has difficulties speaking clearly, and Trump's following is extremely cult-like. Furthermore, it doesn't take other problems into account such as inflation and the Gaza situation. It measures "strong economy" as a simple yes or no, looking at unemployment rates and the stock market, but doesn't take inflation into account.

According to polls, over 70% of Americans think Biden is too old to continue the job for 4 more years. He's now also trailing in states like New Hampshire and Virginia following that debacle the other night. How is he supposed to win this election with numbers like that?
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:03 AM   #15144
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Fingers crossed 🤞:


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/u...on-debate.html
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:09 AM   #15145
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To drop out now would be a worse look than not dropping out, no?

Or it is the opposite? Or no positive outcome either way? lol

As long as the replacement is actually someone decent...
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:24 AM   #15146
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To drop out now would be a worse look than not dropping out, no?

Or it is the opposite? Or no positive outcome either way? lol

As long as the replacement is actually someone decent...
If they give the nomination to Harris then they might as well swear Trump in now, she's basically an even more unlikeable Hillary Clinton
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:29 AM   #15147
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Can you please be specific regarding which groups the left is trying to eliminate on the same existential level as right-wing groups are with the trans community?
Shame such a great question goes unanswered
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:41 AM   #15148
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Harris was closer to Trump in recent polls than Biden, and her messaging on abortion has been much better.

They could just flip roles, she could have Biden as her VP.
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Old 07-03-2024, 09:51 AM   #15149
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Harris was closer to Trump in recent polls than Biden, and her messaging on abortion has been much better.

They could just flip roles, she could have Biden as her VP.
If they win, is Biden going to have to into the office and stare at a wall every day? I can't see any use of Biden staying on the ticket. Put Obama on the ticket if they're going that route.

It definitely seems like they are getting past the point of no return of being able to keep Biden in the race. You can't leak stories that he's thinking of dropping out, but then continue on. Plus all the various other Democrat voices leaking that they want him to step down.
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:40 AM   #15150
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Oh boy. Trump's gonna win isn't he?
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:41 AM   #15151
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Ugh, we’re so ####ed.
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:45 AM   #15152
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if they replace Biden, it simply can't be Harris. She'll surely feel it's her right in that situation, but I don't see how she could beat Trump either.

has to be Newsom. I think Whitmer and Shapiro would be good candidates too, but Newsom has the national profile already and I feel he's an effective messenger. Easily the best choice IMO, especially in such a short time.
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:54 AM   #15153
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if they replace Biden, it simply can't be Harris. She'll surely feel it's her right in that situation, but I don't see how she could beat Trump either.

has to be Newsom. I think Whitmer and Shapiro would be good candidates too, but Newsom has the national profile already and I feel he's an effective messenger. Easily the best choice IMO, especially in such a short time.
Newsom is the worst imaginable choice for getting votes where they need them. They need to get the rust belt states, and he is going to be portrayed as the poster child for all of California's perceived problems. Inflation is a big issue in that state and no way are they going to see Newsom as the answer.

I'm not saying Harris is the right answer, but maybe she could turn her image around with the help from the right people?
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:54 AM   #15154
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Newsom wouldn't have a hope in hell of winning in swing states. Way too many people have bought into the propaganda of California being hell on earth.

I think Harris is the only real option because of the campaign financing and infrastructure that's in place. I don't know that there's really time to build all that from scratch for someone else, and what do you do with all the money that the Biden/Harris campaign already has? Obviously these conversations should have been happening a year or two ago, but Democrats love to **** themselves over through arrogance, so here we are.
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Old 07-03-2024, 11:59 AM   #15155
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you guys are probably right ... my mistake to think "who's the best candidate?" and not "who's the candidate who's likely to win in states where people think California is hell, which is somehow an important question in 2024 because the US is still clinging to archaic #### like the electoral college".
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Old 07-03-2024, 12:00 PM   #15156
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Newsom wouldn't have a hope in hell of winning in swing states. Way too many people have bought into the propaganda of California being hell on earth.

I think Harris is the only real option because of the campaign financing and infrastructure that's in place. I don't know that there's really time to build all that from scratch for someone else, and what do you do with all the money that the Biden/Harris campaign already has? Obviously these conversations should have been happening a year or two ago, but Democrats love to **** themselves over through arrogance, so here we are.
Has her time as VP washed away her connection to California because she was a DA and the AG there. To what extent does that impact her success in swing states as compared to Newsom being the Governor of California?
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Old 07-03-2024, 12:06 PM   #15157
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Has her time as VP washed away her connection to California because she was a DA and the AG there. To what extent does that impact her success in swing states as compared to Newsom being the Governor of California?
Who knows. I don't necessarily think Harris has the best chance of winning or anything. I just don't see a viable way to get anyone else up and running at this point, particularly if they're waiting until the convention in late August to actually choose someone. The Biden/Harris campaign has something like $300M in cash on hand, whereas anyone else would be starting with basically nothing.

That said, I think once you've participated in national politics for a period of time, it's less of an issue then if you're currently a Governor. Harris was a US Senator 4 years and then VP for the last 3.5. So maybe whatever propaganda people who've never left their midwest state are believing about California won't have as much of an effect.
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Old 07-03-2024, 12:09 PM   #15158
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I watched the video. He said those words.
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Old 07-03-2024, 12:13 PM   #15159
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Shame such a great question goes unanswered
It's pretty much the standard for right-wingers these days.

"We're being silenced and shunned for our beliefs!"

"Which ones? Lower taxes and cuts to the welfare state?"

"No, not those ones."

"Privatization and deregulation?"

"Not those either."

"Okay, which ones then?"

*crickets*
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Old 07-03-2024, 12:43 PM   #15160
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Who knows. I don't necessarily think Harris has the best chance of winning or anything. I just don't see a viable way to get anyone else up and running at this point, particularly if they're waiting until the convention in late August to actually choose someone. The Biden/Harris campaign has something like $300M in cash on hand, whereas anyone else would be starting with basically nothing.

That said, I think once you've participated in national politics for a period of time, it's less of an issue then if you're currently a Governor. Harris was a US Senator 4 years and then VP for the last 3.5. So maybe whatever propaganda people who've never left their midwest state are believing about California won't have as much of an effect.

If Harris is going to be the the democratic presidential candidate and the first goal is ensuring Trump never wins then maybe we need a completely new approach. Could Larry Horgan be her VP? He is a well liked centrist republican and former governor of Maryland who seems like a decent ethical person and has eschewed the divisive rhetoric that infests US politics.
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