Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Their bottom 6 was better this year. But Foegele, Henrique, Janmark, Ryan, and Perry are all UFAs. They can probably afford to sign one, or maybe two of them. The rest of the bottom six will be replacement level players. So their bottom 6 is going to be garbage again, as it was every year until this year.

Meanwhile, Hyman had a career year, while Kane and RNH are on the back 9.

Bouchard had a career year. Ekholm is on the back 9. Are they as good as last year? Maybe. But hard to imagine they're better. After that, it's the same old same old, with their defense.

Goaltending? They can't afford to fix it, and once again, will push all their chips in on Skinner.

They need both Holloway and Broberg to take a step forward, because they can't afford any big ticket additions.

Exactly where will the Oilers be 'better'? (directed at your workmate, not you)

Derek Ryan is signed, but is 38 years old and wasn't that effective.

The others really were very good at times, especially in the last 2 rounds when the stars slowed rights down. Hyman looked like he was going to break the goals record by round 3. 11 points his last 17 games is a 50 point pace on the Oilers top pp unit? That is what I call disappearing

Leon put up 15 in last 17...that's 72 point pace playing on the PP with a guy that almost broke the points record? Disappeared

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

The PK part is a big one for me. Even if they keep some of the top PK guys, they won't have a playoff of minus 1 on the PK again.

McDavid got a lot of credit and probably deserved the Conn Smyth, but the PK is why they almost one. Oilers top guys did a ton of padding stats in the Kings series and the first 2 games against Vancouver.

McDavid
1st 7 games - 17 points
Last 17 games - 25 points

Leon
1st 7 games - 16 points
Last 17 games - 15 points

Hyman
1st 7 games - 11 points
Last 17 games - 11 points

Bouchard
1st 7 games - 11 points
Last 17 games - 21 points

Nuge
1st 7 games - 9 points
Last 17 games - 13 points

Bouchard and McDavid numbers were still great, but the rest slowed up big time. They had some big games, 8-1 in the finals in a series that was 3-0, stats were padded but the PK almost won them the cup.

Janmark, Foegele, and Brown were huge parts of their success. But media just wants to give all the credit to the above.

A fair amount of stats padding in the game 5 rout as well. I agree - their PK got them to game 7. Florida had a good powerplay during the year, I'm told, but those guys not only shut them down, but had a positive goal differential.

[TheIronMaiden]

The Oilers will be a threat so long as McDavid (28) and Draisatl (29) are able to produce at the rate they are.

That said, 28 and 29 statistically are years where production declines.

https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22

Not to suggest that they will fall off a cliff, but they can't keep it up forever.

[Enoch Root]

Yup, their PK carried them. And their bottom 6 played above their pay grade.

Foegele, Janmark, Henrique, Ryan, Perry and Brown (even he played well in the playoffs) are ALL UFAs. First they have to sign Holloway. Then they have to figure out how many of theses guys they can bring back (I'll guess 2). After that, it's back to replacement level guys for the bottom 6.

Good luck having a PK that can do that again.

Edit: right, Ryan has another year

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

A fair amount of stats padding in the game 5 rout as well. I agree - their PK got them to game 7. Florida had a good powerplay during the year, I'm told, but thoser guts not only shut them down, but had a positive goal differential.

When you play 6 games against Dallas and 7 against Florida and they get 1 PP goal for the entire series and it goes 6 and 7, if they got 1 pp goal a game that is reasonable, they win the series.

Foegele was on the ice for 3 HD chances against on the PK all playoffs.

Brown was 11 to 16 shots for and against on the PK.

Not only were they not giving up goals, but every PK seemed to be momentum changing PK's where the Oilers would dominate and deflate the other team.

[1991 Canadian]

With Cory Perry's playoff bonuses, Connor Brown's bonus, the Neal buyout and Campbell's buried contract, the Oilers 2024-25 dead cap space is up to $9.31 million.

Just one of those would be hilarious, but the fact that they have that much dead money is astounding. Year after year.

It'll be an interesting summer in Shelbyville.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yup, their PK carried them. And their bottom 6 played above their pay grade.

Foegele, Janmark, Henrique, Ryan, Perry and Brown (even he played well in the playoffs) are ALL UFAs. First they have to sign Holloway. Then they have to figure out how many of theses guys they can bring back (I'll guess 2). After that, it's back to replacement level guys for the bottom 6.

Good luck having a PK that can do that again.

Edit: right, Ryan has another year

I'm betting more than a few teams will think Foegele, Janmark and Brown can do even better offensively with more minutes and shore up any PK.

I can't see them re-sgning Perry - he was useless and will be 40 by this time next year. Henrique maybe. Foegele I bet gets a better deal elsewhere.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Their PK felt like such a fluke.

Dallas and Florida especially played almost all of their PPs on the perimeter and were sheepish, relying on low percentage shots but also very few shots in general.

Kind of a honda center effect. It turned into a narrative and the play on the ice reflected that narrative.

It amazed me how many pucks were bobbled or just bounced to an oiler stick for the clear.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Their PK felt like such a fluke.

Dallas and Florida especially played almost all of their PPs on the perimeter and were sheepish, relying on low percentage shots but also very few shots in general.

Kind of a honda center effect. It turned into a narrative and the play on the ice reflected that narrative.

Wrong thread to say it, but I thought their PK was good - aggressive and good movement, and the guys on it all had good wheels. I expected the D to be a liability but Ekholm shored it up.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Wrong thread to say it, but I thought their PK was good - aggressive and good movement, and the guys on it all had good wheels. I expected the D to be a liability but Ekholm shored it up.

You don't make the finals by mistake.

If Skinner holds up, they will be a very good team next year. Maybe not better, but still very good.

[dirk diggler]

Originally Posted by 1991 Canadian

With Cory Perry's playoff bonuses, Connor Brown's bonus, the Neal buyout and Campbell's buried contract, the Oilers 2024-25 dead cap space is up to $9.31 million.

Just one of those would be hilarious, but the fact that they have that much dead money is astounding. Year after year.

It'll be an interesting summer in Shelbyville.

I am sure the new narrative will be that great players will play there for minimum just to play with the greatest leader there is, Lets go.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Wrong thread to say it, but I thought their PK was good - aggressive and good movement, and the guys on it all had good wheels. I expected the D to be a liability but Ekholm shored it up.

For sure, and their conditioning levels are quite high. Just never looked tired. Or maybe it's just they had lots of gas in the tank due to sitting on the bench most of the regular season.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

You don't make the finals by mistake.

If Skinner holds up, they will be a very good team next year. Maybe not better, but still very good.

Montreal did a few years ago

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Janmark, Foegele, and Brown were huge parts of their success. But media just wants to give all the credit to the above.

The only reason they came back to 3-3 in the finals is because the depth had a couple of good games in a row.

Drai was invisible through the finals. McDavid really only had impact points in 1/7 games (points that mattered that they happened - when the final result was known)

They don't have the cap space to bring back the same level of depth next season.

And the simple fact is, it takes a lot of luck to even get that far - which they aren't likely to get again.

Yeah, a few teams make it back the next season, most don't.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

You don't make the finals by mistake.

If Skinner holds up, they will be a very good team next year. Maybe not better, but still very good.

No you don't fluke into it, but the stars have to align in a lot of ways as we all know. Are the coilers going to get another dream first two round matchups and avoid the Vegas/Colorado/Stars juggernaut early? Doubtful. Is the team going to stay as healthy as it did all season again? Doubtful (especially after a short offseason).

Nothing is guaranteed and coming back for another run with an entirely different group of bottom 6 forwards that is likely nowhere near as cohesive as this year is a huge question mark. The Panthers just did it and they primarily had the same team (minus some tweaks around the edges). Doing it with 50% new roster and no cap room is basically unheard of.

If this year showed us anything about the Oilers, its that as good as their two stars may be, unless you have the better, deeper team, you're not winning it all. Kudos to them for battling back in a series that was over, but they weren't able to win games when they didn't have last change, and that speaks heavily to not having the depth around these stars to find ways to win when they get shut down. Is that improving next year with no cap room and no picks and no prospects pushing?

[looooob]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The Oilers will be a threat so long as McDavid (28) and Draisatl (29) are able to produce at the rate they are.

That said, 28 and 29 statistically are years where production declines.

https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22

Not to suggest that they will fall off a cliff, but they can't keep it up forever.

for sure at some point they are going to hit at least a plateau (admittedly its a plateau at a stunningly high level) offensively


the trade off is its an age where players- esp Centres (admittedly this is mostly my own non-data informative narrative) show maintained growth in the other complexities of the position (I'm thinking of other elite /HOF caliber centers like Yzerman, Sakic, Modano, Gilmour , Fedorov etc) and adapt to be more well rounded- possibly with a commensurate drop off in offence-



I know there are strong opinions here about how likely that will be. I guess that will be interesting to watch

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

You don't make the finals by mistake.

The Oilers of all people should know that this is not true.

The 2006 Oilers is the very definition of making the finals by mistake.

They made the playoffs 1 time in the 4 years prior, did not make the playoffs for 10 straight seasons after, and 12/13 seasons after. They were the 8th seed going into the playoffs.

The 95 points they earned in that regular season was the most they earned between the 87-88 season and the 2016-17 season.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Montreal did a few years ago

2021 was an anomaly. The strange season structure helped them get in. Not to mention they had all world goaltending.

Their failures the since 2021 was because Price retired.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by looooob

for sure at some point they are going to hit at least a plateau (admittedly its a plateau at a stunningly high level) offensively


the trade off is its an age where players- esp Centres (admittedly this is mostly my own non-data informative narrative) show maintained growth in the other complexities of the position (I'm thinking of other elite /HOF caliber centers like Yzerman, Sakic, Modano, Gilmour , Fedorov etc) and adapt to be more well rounded- possibly with a commensurate drop off in offence-



I know there are strong opinions here about how likely that will be. I guess that will be interesting to watch

Yeah arguably Draisatl's production is already in decline, which is kinda funny to say knowing that he's producing over 100 points 40 goals a season.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Baaarrden

Reading Oilers reddit is hilarious. Love to see how delusional and overconfident they are that neither McDavid or Draisaitl will be leaving because they love playing in Edmonton and that they would never turn their back on a team that is on the brink of winning each year.

I think one of the days I am most looking forward to over the next few years is seeing their fans' souls crushed once again as both of them walk without anything to show for their time there.

McDavid will turn his back on Edmonton as readily as he turned his back on the Conn Smythe.